#分享美股交易赢英伟达股票 Goldman Sachs predicts Nvidia's stock price will reach $285: Can the stock hit this target in June?
On June 1, it broke through the consolidation range, rising 6.26% on that day, and Goldman Sachs reaffirmed its target price of $285, which once again raises questions about how long the rally can last.
Breakouts are bullish reasons, and a new wave of optimism from analysts after the GTC Taipei conference theme speech also supports this. But one indicator shows the opposite trend, causing Nvidia executives to hesitate between two development paths for the rest of the month.
Nvidia's stock price broke out and rose, after Goldman Sachs reaffirmed its $285 target price.
Nvidia (NVDA) stock rose 6.26% on June 1, closing above $224, breaking out of the previous weeks-long downtrend channel. Trading volume approached 213 million shares, consistent with late April levels. This rally marked the peak of a bullish flag pattern, characterized by a sharp price increase, followed by a sloped consolidation phase, and then a breakout higher.
Nvidia's stock price rose from a low of $164 to a high of $236, a 44% increase, then pulled back within the flag formation channel. On June 1, the price finally broke through the bullish flag.
The timing was no coincidence. On the same day, after Nvidia delivered a keynote speech at Computex Taipei during the GTC conference, Goldman Sachs reiterated its "buy" rating on Nvidia and maintained its $285 target price.
Goldman Sachs reaffirmed its "buy" rating and $285 target price for Nvidia, citing the company's ambitious AI PC initiatives, continued leadership in data centers, and the growing popularity of artificial intelligence agents.
On June 1, analyst James Schneider pointed out that Microsoft is aggressively entering the AI personal computer space, Nvidia leads in data centers, and AI agent applications are expanding. He also added that Nvidia's next-generation AI chip system—the Vera Rubin platform—is progressing smoothly. Nvidia also released RTX Spark, a desktop AI computer designed to run AI agents locally. This is the second bullish signal in less than two months, after Susquehanna set a $275 target in May.$NVDA – Analysts raised Nvidia's target price to $275 amid surging AI demand.
Susquehanna analyst Christopher Rolland raised Nvidia's target price from $250 to $275, maintaining a "positive" rating ahead of the company's May 20 earnings report.
Even as prices rise, capital flow continues to decline
Not all signals support this trend. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator measures whether institutional funds are flowing into or out of a stock. Nvidia's CMF has struggled to stay positive for months, possibly due to funds moving between competing AI stocks. The indicator briefly rose to around 0.58 in early May but fell back to zero by June 1. Additionally, from late April to early June, prices trended upward while the CMF indicator declined, indicating a lack of strong buying support for this rally. This is a bearish divergence. Although the breakout candlestick volume significantly increased, the CMF did not show a corresponding rise. Buyers flooded in on the breakout day, but the indicator has yet to confirm sustained institutional accumulation.
On the other hand, some changes could occur. If institutions start buying heavily, and the CMF indicator moves back above zero, it would strengthen the case for a genuine breakout.
Currently, capital flow has not been convinced, so the next focus should be on holdings data. Options bets lean bullish, but leverage levels appear balanced. The options market offers a way to break the deadlock. The put/call ratio compares put options to call options; the lower the ratio, the more traders favor calls, indicating bullish sentiment. Based on trading volume, the ratio is 0.39, with calls clearly dominating and bullish sentiment more pronounced. Daily new bets also favor calls. The open interest ratio is more balanced at 0.81, close to equilibrium. This gap is crucial. The daily chart shows bullishness, but long-term leverage levels are not unbalanced.
Open interest is healthy. If Nvidia's stock price pulls back, fewer long positions would need to be closed, reducing the risk of a sharp decline.
Overall, this suggests bullish bets but without dangerous leverage, aligning with a breakout that still needs confirmation from capital flow. As a result, the price chart can only show two possible directions for this month’s price movement.
Nvidia's stock levels in bull and bear scenarios. Nvidia's setup clearly divides into two paths, each with its own triggers.
Bullish signals start when the daily close exceeds $225. This confirms a breakout and opens Fibonacci extension levels at $244, $253, and $265. The next major target is $280, close to Goldman Sachs' forecast of $285, and if the 44% decline fully repeats, the target could reach $310. The key trigger here is demand. If the production of RTX Spark AI-PC and the launch of Vera Rubin attract institutional buyers this month, capital flow could turn positive, and the $300 target from DA Davidson would further boost this trend.
The bearish scenario is the opposite. Falling below $208 would weaken this pattern, and closing below $194 would break it entirely. At that point, market sentiment would turn cautious. Deutsche Bank maintains a "hold" rating with a $255 target; Goldman Sachs previously pointed out margin risks due to rising costs. These could all contribute to a decline in stock price.
If buyers do not appear and funds continue flowing into competing AI stocks, the breakout could retreat into the channel, slowing the rally. There is a key link between the two. Currently, this rally lacks confirmation from capital flow, so the bullish path depends on a change in funds; the bearish path only requires continued absence of buying.
For Nvidia stock, these two lines determine the future trend over the next month. If the daily close exceeds $225, it is likely to reach the $280 target before June and meet Goldman Sachs' forecast; if it falls below $194, the bears will regain control.

#分享美股交易赢英伟达股票 The U.S. stock market has surged 16% in two months: it has only happened four times in history, the most recent being before the 1987 crash!
The strong rebound in U.S. stocks over the past two months is triggering historical alarms. The S&P 500 index has risen 16% from April to May, a gain that has only occurred four times since World War II, three of which happened during recovery phases after a recession, with the only non-recession precedent being just a few months before the 1987 "Black Monday" crash.
Deutsche Bank macro strategist Henry Allen pointed out that this current rally is not occurring in the context of a recession recovery, making historical comparisons particularly striking. Meanwhile, credit spreads remain at historic lows, but signals of consumer pressure are accumulating, Fed rate hike expectations are rising, and divergence between the sovereign bond market and stocks continues to widen. With multiple risk factors stacking up, tail risks in the market are unusually concentrated.
Henry Allen wrote in his report, "The tail risks currently distributed are exceptionally prominent, both geopolitically and in the market."
Rare historical precedent, only one in a non-recession context!
The S&P 500 index gained 16% over April and May, a rare occurrence only four times since WWII. Three of these were strong rebounds following recessions: the recovery after the COVID-19 pandemic from April to May 2020, the rebound after the global financial crisis from March to April 2009, and the recovery after the first oil crisis from January to February 1975. The fourth was from January to February 1987. At that time, only a few months remained before October's "Black Monday"—when the S&P 500 plunged 20% in a single day.
Henry Allen emphasized that this rally is supported by fundamentals, including enthusiasm for artificial intelligence and strong economic data, but "the pace of the rise has already broken all recent precedents." In an economy that has not emerged from a recession, such a rapid rebound has never ended well in history. Additionally, the S&P 500 is on track to achieve its fourth consecutive year of double-digit gains, a record that has not been seen since the late 1990s.
Overly optimistic credit markets, consumer pressure signals being ignored!
The stock market's strength is also spreading to credit markets. Credit spreads in the U.S. and Europe are now narrower than before the U.S.-Iran conflict erupted, indicating high risk tolerance. However, warning signals at the consumer level are accumulating. The U.S. savings rate in April was only 2.6%, a level only seen during two periods in history: a single month in 2022 (when excess savings accumulated during the COVID-19 pandemic were being depleted), and just before the global financial crisis. Meanwhile, the University of Michigan consumer confidence index hit its lowest level since records began in 1952 in May. The monetary policy environment is also tightening. The European Central Bank is widely expected to raise interest rates this month, and market bets on the Fed raising rates in 2026 are heating up—April’s U.S. PCE inflation was 3.8% year-over-year, supporting this expectation.
Henry Allen pointed out that historically, hawkish Fed stances tend to coincide with widening credit spreads, as seen in 2022, late 2018, and from 2015 to 2016. The current calm in credit markets is a clear deviation from this historical pattern.
Bond markets alone under pressure, divergence from stocks continues to widen!
Despite the stock and credit markets showing high immunity to geopolitical risks, the sovereign bond market has taken a very different path. Over the past month, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has almost completely followed oil prices, diverging sharply from other asset classes. In mid-May, sovereign bond yields hit multi-year highs: the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 5.18%, the highest since 2007; the 10-year German bund yield rose to 3.19%, the highest since 2011. At that time, stocks were just a step away from their all-time highs, while bond yields reached levels unseen in over a decade. This divergence has shown no signs of convergence to date.
Henry Allen believes that bonds price inflation and fiscal risks more directly, making them more sensitive to geopolitical shocks. The ongoing divergence between stocks and bonds itself reflects the fragility of the current market.
Oil prices unexpectedly stable, becoming a key support for risk assets!
The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz lasted much longer than initially expected, but oil prices responded surprisingly mildly, partly explaining the resilience of risk assets. When the Iran-U.S. conflict erupted on February 28, the White House initially projected the action would last 4 to 6 weeks. However, the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked to this day. According to Polymarket data, the probability of normal navigation resuming by the end of June has dropped sharply from about 80% in mid-April to 22%.
Nevertheless, oil futures curves remain relatively stable. Two weeks after the conflict broke out on March 13, Brent crude oil six-month futures closed at $85.66 per barrel; by June 1, the contract was still around $84.88, nearly unchanged.
Henry Allen pointed out that because oil futures curves have not shifted significantly upward, investors have not priced in severe stagflation risks, avoiding larger-scale sell-offs in risk assets. However, he also warned that if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, whether this support can be maintained remains uncertain. $US500