#我的七夕交易分享 Three Major Positive Signals Are Building
Despite Bitcoin’s sideways price movement, several noteworthy changes are taking place beneath the surface of the market.
Signal One: Bitcoin-Gold Correlation Reverses. CryptoQuant data shows that the 90-day correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and gold has reversed from -0.9 in winter (inverse movement) to the current +0.7 (movement in the same direction). This is the most significant signal since 2024 of the return of the “digital gold” narrative. When Bitcoin begins moving in sync with gold, it means some capital is starting to view it as a hedge against geopolitical risks rather than merely a high-beta risk asset.
Signal Two: Whales Continue Accumulating. CryptoQuant said whale accumulation of assets including Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP continues to expand, viewing it as a signal that the bear market is nearing its end. Whale addresses holding more than 1,000 Bitcoin continue to increase their holdings, indicating that long-term capital has not exited due to the short-term sideways movement.
Signal Three: Strategy Plans to Resume Purchases. Despite continuously selling Bitcoin recently to raise cash, Strategy CEO Phong Le reiterated that the company still plans to resume buying Bitcoin throughout 2026. As the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder, Strategy’s signal that it will “resume purchases” provides important support for market confidence.
Outlook: Three Major Variables Will Determine the Direction
As mid-August approaches, three core variables will determine the direction of the crypto market:
Variable One: Can Institutional Buying Continue? Despite sideways price movement, institutional capital continues to flow in—Strategy plans to resume purchases, while whales continue accumulating. If institutional demand continues to strengthen, it could push the price above $65,000; if inflows slow, the sideways movement could continue or even break down.
Variable Two: Prospects for a September Vote on the Clarity Act. After the bill was postponed until September, whether the differences between the two parties can be bridged will be key. If the bill makes progress in September, it will become the core catalyst for the mid-term market trend; if it is shelved again, regulatory uncertainty will continue to weigh on market sentiment. Variable Three: Geopolitics and Macroeconomic Data. The July PPI data to be released tonight will be the next macroeconomic test. Meanwhile, the Iran-U.S. conflict and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz remain uncertainties hanging over the market.$BTC
Despite Bitcoin’s sideways price movement, several noteworthy changes are taking place beneath the surface of the market.
Signal One: Bitcoin-Gold Correlation Reverses. CryptoQuant data shows that the 90-day correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and gold has reversed from -0.9 in winter (inverse movement) to the current +0.7 (movement in the same direction). This is the most significant signal since 2024 of the return of the “digital gold” narrative. When Bitcoin begins moving in sync with gold, it means some capital is starting to view it as a hedge against geopolitical risks rather than merely a high-beta risk asset.
Signal Two: Whales Continue Accumulating. CryptoQuant said whale accumulation of assets including Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP continues to expand, viewing it as a signal that the bear market is nearing its end. Whale addresses holding more than 1,000 Bitcoin continue to increase their holdings, indicating that long-term capital has not exited due to the short-term sideways movement.
Signal Three: Strategy Plans to Resume Purchases. Despite continuously selling Bitcoin recently to raise cash, Strategy CEO Phong Le reiterated that the company still plans to resume buying Bitcoin throughout 2026. As the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder, Strategy’s signal that it will “resume purchases” provides important support for market confidence.
Outlook: Three Major Variables Will Determine the Direction
As mid-August approaches, three core variables will determine the direction of the crypto market:
Variable One: Can Institutional Buying Continue? Despite sideways price movement, institutional capital continues to flow in—Strategy plans to resume purchases, while whales continue accumulating. If institutional demand continues to strengthen, it could push the price above $65,000; if inflows slow, the sideways movement could continue or even break down.
Variable Two: Prospects for a September Vote on the Clarity Act. After the bill was postponed until September, whether the differences between the two parties can be bridged will be key. If the bill makes progress in September, it will become the core catalyst for the mid-term market trend; if it is shelved again, regulatory uncertainty will continue to weigh on market sentiment. Variable Three: Geopolitics and Macroeconomic Data. The July PPI data to be released tonight will be the next macroeconomic test. Meanwhile, the Iran-U.S. conflict and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz remain uncertainties hanging over the market.$BTC
