#沃什重申2%通胀目标 Hawkish on standby! The Fed splits 9 to 3 in the vote, Waller sends the most hawkish signal
Last night, the Federal Reserve FOMC decision held the U.S. dollar interest rate steady at 3.50%–3.75%, which the market had already expected. What truly sparked the market, however, was Fed Chair Waller’s remarks at the press conference—along with that rare 9-to-3 split vote sheet.
Key point one: The first time since 2016 to see a result with “three dissenting votes in the same direction”—9 votes in favor and 3 against. The three dissenting members—Hammack of the Cleveland Fed, Kashkari of the Minneapolis Fed, and Logan of the Dallas Fed—all argued for a 25-basis-point rate hike.
“New Fed Communications” Timiraos characterized it as: this is the first time since 2016 that three dissenting votes in the same direction have appeared, reflecting that the Fed is facing mounting pressure to raise rates internally. Wall Street has dubbed the decision a “hawkish on-standby” move, and the three dissenting votes will help fuel bets on further rate hikes over the coming months.
Key point two: The closest “acknowledgment of a rate hike” Waller has made so far. At the press conference, Waller stated plainly: “If inflation is too high and doesn’t come down, the best remedy is to raise interest rates.”
This is Waller’s closest, most explicit admission yet that “the next step could be a rate hike.” He also emphasized that this on-standby decision is not a “pause,” but “the beginning of the story, not the end.” The Fed does not have an “easy inflation target.” 2% is the only meaningful red line for forward guidance before substantive exit, calling on the market to “go capture the real economic signals.”
How is the market pricing it?
Latest data from the futures market shows a 53% probability of a September rate hike by the Fed, and a 62% probability of rate hikes within the year.

#现货黄金突破4100美元 The shoe drops! Gold achieves a V-shaped reversal above $4,100; a hawkish split at the Fed sets a decade record
In the early hours of July 30 Beijing time, the gold market saw an extreme V-shaped move: ahead of the decision, gold prices were pressured by rate-hike expectations and fell below $4,000; after the decision, buy-side demand surged, lifting prices in a straight line to break above $4,100, with a peak at $4,116.
The key trigger was the Fed’s FOMC maintaining rates unchanged with a 9:3 vote. Three officials simultaneously argued for a rate hike, the first time since 2016, but the “shoe drops” effect instead sent the probability of a September rate hike from 81% down sharply to 57.4%. The market shifted from panic to a relief-driven rebound. Meanwhile, the Iran-Iraq ceasefire broke down, and Iranian attacks hit U.S. military bases in Jordan, with geopolitical risk upgrading again.
Fed FOMC decision
9:3 vote to keep rates unchanged; three dissenting votes against a hike set a decade record
The Fed announced it would keep the benchmark interest rate at 3.50%-3.75% unchanged for the fifth consecutive time of “holding steady.” The vote was 9 in favor and 3 against. Dallas Fed President Logan, Cleveland Fed President Mester, and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari all argued for a 25bp rate hike. This marked the first time since 2016 that, in the same policy decision, there were three dissenting votes against a hike with matching positions, reflecting a notable strengthening of hawkish forces. The statement body is only 115 words, the shortest in nearly two decades.
Powell removes forward guidance; a hawkish stance “without hesitation”
Powell delivered a major signal at the press conference: he formally deleted the forward guidance tool, saying, “There is no soft-landing target; the only goal is 2%.” He made clear that “if inflation is too high and does not come down, the best remedy is to raise interest rates,” and that “when necessary and appropriate, he will take action without hesitation.” Powell rejected political pressure, saying the Fed will not yield. At the same time, he pointed out that AI infrastructure construction is pushing up prices and that there is a “race between supply and demand.”
Market reprices sharply: September hike odds plunge
Although Powell’s remarks were hawkish, the market interpreted it as “the shoe drops.” After the FOMC decision, the probability of a September rate hike fell from 81% to 57.4%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged rose from 23.4% to 42.6%. Traders shifted from “expecting a September hike” to “expecting a hike in October.” The U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.58% to 100.81, the largest drop in two weeks; the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury dropped to 4.61%.
Gold price performance and technicals
Extreme V-shaped reversal: after breaking below $4,000, it surged to $4,116
Spot gold printed a textbook V-shaped pattern: ahead of the decision, strengthened rate-hike expectations dragged prices down; gold briefly dropped and broke below the $4,000 psychological level, hitting the lowest since July 21. After the FOMC result was released, buying quickly poured in, driving a straight-line rally that broke above $4,100 during the session, with a high of $4,116.28 (highest since July 23). The intraday gain topped 2%[5]. It ultimately closed at $4,066.13 (+0.94%), giving back part of the gains. Silver rose 0.9% to $57.59; platinum rose 1.9% to $1,636.
Technicals: short-term longs improve, but trend reversal not confirmed
After the V-shaped reversal, gold closed at around $4,066. The session high of $4,116 broke above the 50-day EMA (about $4,065), overcoming a resistance level. Key resistance overhead: $4,150 (monthly pressure) and $4,200 (structural top). Support below: $4,000 (psychological level) and $3,985 (100-day moving average). RSI rebounded, and short-term bullish momentum improved somewhat, but the 200-day moving average is still above, capping price action, so the trend reversal is not yet confirmed. There is no long signal of “breakout → pullback → stabilization”; the market is still treated as a range-bound consolidation.
Geopolitics
Iran-Iraq ceasefire breaks down; Iran attacks U.S. military base in Jordan
In the early hours of July 29, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard launched a preemptive strike, using missiles to hit a U.S. Air Force base and a command center inside Jordan, ending the short pause in fighting that had been maintained for about four days. The U.S. Central Command said all Iranian missiles were successfully intercepted with no personnel casualties. Then the U.S. and Saudi Arabia carried out precise strikes in Iraq against “Iran-backed” targets[8]. The Associated Press said the fragile ceasefire status was declared over, and the outlook for the five-month conflict is again uncertain.
Trump threatens a “heavy strike”; Netanyahu floats three scenarios
On July 29, Trump said “we will deliver a heavy strike to Iran” and “it’s America’s turn to respond,” and plans to add provisions in a bill authorizing tariffs on Iran. The U.S. continues a maritime blockade on Iran, already forcing 20 cargo ships to reroute and leaving 2 ships unable to operate.
During his visit to the U.S., Netanyahu presented Trump with “three scenarios” regarding Iran: one is reaching a diplomatic agreement; two is no agreement but continued economic sanctions; three is launching a large-scale offensive against Iran. Meanwhile, Israel proposed a desire to gradually phase out U.S. assistance.
Flows
SPDR gold ETF holdings rebound from low levels
Holdings of the world’s largest gold ETF, SPDR, were 1,009.298 tons (July 29), up 0.571 tons on the day[10]. Worth noting: on July 17, the ETF’s holdings fell below the 1,000-ton level to 999.02 tons, the lowest since the beginning of the year. Even though there has been a rebound now, it remains at low levels, suggesting that although gold has rebounded in a V-shape, institutional flows still appear cautious.
What to watch next
Tonight 20:30: U.S. June core PCE data— the inflation gauge the Fed watches most. If it comes in above expectations, will rate-hike expectations reignite? Whether the Iran-U.S. conflict will further escalate: Trump’s “heavy strike” promise—when will it land? Technicals: can $4,100 hold as a new support, or will it fall again to retest $4,000$XAUUSD ‌