Crude oil is down 4.5% intraday. Easing inflation expectations could give U.S. stocks a chance to rebound during the session, while crypto remains in a daily downtrend; you can go long the S&P and short crypto as a hedge#BTC闪崩插针

#美股财报季 #Gate股票畅聊季 From the market action, AMD is most likely to be the first to emerge from its correction. Nvidia was weighed down today by an executive controversy, while storage stocks have strong industry fundamentals, but their share prices have yet to stabilize.

AMD Strongest rebound signal
On November 6, it surged 11.04%, closing at $449.04.
Oppenheimer upgraded its rating and set a $600 price target, saying AI chip sales are accelerating.
The concern: it is still down about 26% over the past 20 days, and Friday's close remained below the 5-day moving average, making this look more like a rebound after a sharp drop.

Memory chips Strongest industry fundamentals
DRAM contract prices are still rising, with a 13%–18% quarter-over-quarter increase expected in Q4; HBM capacity is very tight.
· The A-share memory sector rose 3.61% over the past week, but is still down about 16% over the past month.
Consumer NAND spot prices are weak, and market differences center on memory prices in 2027 and additional supply from Chinese manufacturers, so share price recovery is a step behind.

Nvidia Weakest for now
Jensen Huang admitted to an extramarital affair, the board launched an independent investigation, and national security concerns were also raised.
On November 9, it fell nearly 6% in overnight trading and more than 6% in London trading.
This is a shock from a company-specific event, with little to do with the industry cycle, making the recovery timeline harder to predict.

Overall: AMD rebounds first, storage stocks stabilize later, while Nvidia still needs time for the investigation news to be digested.
To truly confirm that the correction is over, watch whether AMD can hold its rebound and storage stocks can break above moving averages on increased volume. $NVDA ‌

#美股财报季 #Gate股票畅聊季 The Night Before CPI: Tech Stock Valuations Under Pressure—How to Choose Between Offense and Defense?

📉 Pressure on Tech Stock Valuations if CPI Exceeds Expectations

Key takeaway: It would directly trigger fresh valuation compression, with high-valuation AI stocks bearing the brunt.

• This October CPI report is the last key inflation report before the Fed’s December policy meeting

• If the data comes in significantly high, interest rate pressure will directly compound the valuation risks already facing the AI sector

• Valuations of long-duration growth stocks depend heavily on discounting future cash flows; rising risk-free rates sharply reduce the present value of distant earnings

• After September CPI exceeded expectations, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell for six consecutive trading days

• For AI cloud service providers heavily reliant on debt financing to expand capacity, every 25-basis-point rate hike sharply increases refinancing pressure

🏦 The Fed’s Path for Future Policy Adjustments

Key takeaway: The probability of a December rate hike has exceeded 80%, with gradual, data-dependent hikes to follow.

• Fed officials have made clear that employment is currently resilient and inflation remains elevated, making the policy direction clear

• Markets have priced in a probability of over 80% for a 25-basis-point rate hike in December, with another hike expected in 2027

• Fed Chair Warsh stressed that there would be no fixed forward guidance, and that all decisions would be fully anchored to future inflation and employment data

• The Fed will not be swayed by external political pressure and will make independent decisions based entirely on its dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment

• A shift toward easing would require either sustained declines in core inflation or clear signs of a cooling labor market

🔍 Priorities for Market Monitoring

Key takeaway: Watch Treasury yields and the dollar first, then the Nasdaq and major tech stocks.

• The 10-year US Treasury yield is the foundation for growth stock valuations and should be the top priority

• A stronger dollar directly drives global foreign capital back home, continuously weighing on the pricing of global risk assets

• Moves in the Nasdaq and major tech stocks are the ultimate result of interest rate changes, not leading market signals

• News such as geopolitical conflicts and AI regulation only causes short-term sentiment swings and cannot fundamentally change the broader interest rate trend

📊 A Pragmatic Trading Strategy

Absolutely do not build a large position in advance; wait for the data and clear signals before acting.

• The current CPI reading is a complete black box, and betting on its direction in advance is essentially going in exposed

• After the data comes out, first confirm the reaction in Treasury yields, then assess how well tech stocks hold up

• Even if you miss the first leg of a rebound, that is far safer than getting caught in a sharp selloff triggered by CPI exceeding expectations

• Once earnings, orders, and macro signals align, trading conviction will improve by an entire order of magnitude