#股票交易分享挑战 @股市分析: Let’s talk about Nvidia!
The current situation in the United States resembles 2000 in many ways. For example, Nvidia’s playbook is essentially what Cisco had already used up back then. Simply put, it is circular financing. Although there are some differences, the core is basically the same: using direct loans or guarantees to get downstream companies to buy its products. This leads them to purchase large quantities of products without any real profits, creating a self-reinforcing loop that sends valuations soaring. In fact, many comparisons are mistaken. The current AI bubble is exactly like the Internet bubble back then, only larger. In both cases, downstream applications could not find a profitable business model, while upstream companies took all the money. The difference is that this time, all the valuations have gone to the upstream companies, making it even more absurd. At present, AI application companies cannot even attract meaningful market valuations. Even more alarming is that the Internet bubble at least left behind fiber-optic cables; this time, it is leaving behind a huge number of computing centers. If the bubble bursts, what use will the latter be? They depreciate even faster, and within a few years their value will essentially reach zero. Finally, are AI companies heavy-asset manufacturers? If so, can their valuations really be so high? When the bubble ultimately bursts, Nvidia will be hit the hardest, because downstream companies will be unable to repay their debts, and the financing guarantors will not be able to escape either. $NVDA
The current situation in the United States resembles 2000 in many ways. For example, Nvidia’s playbook is essentially what Cisco had already used up back then. Simply put, it is circular financing. Although there are some differences, the core is basically the same: using direct loans or guarantees to get downstream companies to buy its products. This leads them to purchase large quantities of products without any real profits, creating a self-reinforcing loop that sends valuations soaring. In fact, many comparisons are mistaken. The current AI bubble is exactly like the Internet bubble back then, only larger. In both cases, downstream applications could not find a profitable business model, while upstream companies took all the money. The difference is that this time, all the valuations have gone to the upstream companies, making it even more absurd. At present, AI application companies cannot even attract meaningful market valuations. Even more alarming is that the Internet bubble at least left behind fiber-optic cables; this time, it is leaving behind a huge number of computing centers. If the bubble bursts, what use will the latter be? They depreciate even faster, and within a few years their value will essentially reach zero. Finally, are AI companies heavy-asset manufacturers? If so, can their valuations really be so high? When the bubble ultimately bursts, Nvidia will be hit the hardest, because downstream companies will be unable to repay their debts, and the financing guarantors will not be able to escape either. $NVDA
