#我的七夕交易分享 @How Oil Prices Affect the Federal Reserve’s Policy Path
The core mechanism through which rising oil prices are transmitted to monetary policy lies in inflation expectations.
Raising interest rates to weaken demand cannot address the root cause of inflation triggered by a supply shock; it can neither keep trade routes operating smoothly nor restart factories. If long-term inflation expectations do not rise, the Federal Reserve may “look past” the surge in oil prices. But this judgment rests on a key premise—inflation expectations must remain “anchored.” Barkin himself also acknowledged that we are currently in an era of more frequent supply shocks, with the oil shock being just the latest in a series of shocks over the past five years. If this situation continues, whether the Federal Reserve has the capacity to respond to all the shocks that follow will be a question it must answer. The market’s pricing already reflects this. On August 18, the probability that the Federal Reserve would leave rates unchanged in September rose to 63.4%, while the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield had fallen by about 20 basis points since July 23. This pricing of the interest-rate path reflects the market’s view that, in the current environment, the Federal Reserve is more likely to choose to wait and see rather than raise rates aggressively. But uncertainty remains. The minutes of the Federal Reserve’s July meeting are about to be released, and the market expects to gain more clues about the direction of interest rates from them. If oil prices remain above $85 per barrel, the pace of inflation’s decline could slow further, thereby reducing the Federal Reserve’s room to cut rates.$XTIUSD ‌

#我的七夕交易分享 U.S. Stock Market Outlook: Clear Sector Rotation Signals
Based on today’s market signals, the U.S. stock market is undergoing a clear phase of sector rotation—capital is gradually flowing from large-cap technology stocks and AI computing leaders, which have posted huge gains over the past two years, into second-tier AI infrastructure sectors such as memory, optical communications, and semiconductor equipment.
Three signals worth watching
The three major memory chip companies all broke out on increased volume simultaneously, suggesting that the industry cycle may turn earlier than expected; production expectations for 800G/1.6T in the optical communications sector are being realized, improving order visibility across the industry chain; technology giants have collectively pulled back, but to a limited extent, as the market is still digesting valuation pressure from the Q2 earnings season.
From a technical perspective, the Nasdaq has been consolidating within the 26000–27000 range for more than three weeks. The short-term moving averages (5-day, 10-day, and 20-day) have converged, while the MACD is hovering near the zero axis, indicating that the index is technically approaching a directional breakout.
If the index can break above the 27000 mark on increased volume over the next several trading days, it may open up further upside; conversely, a break below the 26000 support level could trigger a larger-scale correction.
Key events to watch for the remainder of this week include Tuesday’s premarket July retail sales data, the Federal Reserve’s July meeting minutes on Wednesday, and initial jobless claims on Thursday.
The above data will directly affect the market’s assessment of the probability of a rate cut at the September FOMC meeting, thereby determining the duration and depth of this round of sector rotation. Federal funds futures pricing currently shows that the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in September is approximately 65%, down from 72% one week ago.$NAS100