#我的七夕交易分享 All bullish catalysts have materialized—why isn't the market rising?
Today's biggest market controversy, and the core question confusing all investors: macro tailwinds are fully in place, yet the crypto market is completely desensitized.
U.S. CPI rose 3.4% year-on-year in July, continuing to fall from 3.5% in June. The data fully matched market expectations, confirming that inflation is cooling. Boosted by this positive news, the Nasdaq rose 0.54%, AI chip and cloud computing stocks collectively surged, and risk assets across U.S. equities rose. But the crypto market remained "completely unmoved": BTC briefly surged 0.3% after the data was released before quickly retreating, while ETH similarly lacked momentum after its spike, firmly entering a weak trend decoupled from U.S. equities.
There is only one core truth: all the positive news had already been priced in.
Expectations for cooling inflation had already been fully absorbed by the market in the earlier rally, leaving no new buying pressure upon realization. Meanwhile, the market is in a typical vacuum period where negative news has been exhausted but positive catalysts have yet to arrive: CME FedWatch data shows the probability of a Fed rate hike in September plunging from 30% to 60%, with tightening risks substantially receding, but the market has not yet formed clear expectations for rate cuts, leaving insufficient incremental logic to support a rebound.
More importantly, gold broke above $4,500 to hit a two-month high. Safe-haven and store-of-value funds have been heavily diverted, further squeezing the upside potential of crypto risk assets and causing the broader market to completely lose its upward momentum.
BTC faces three fatal pressures
Beneath the seemingly subdued range-bound trading, three hidden pressures continue to cap Bitcoin's rebound and are also the core obstacles preventing a short-term breakout:
1. Rising geopolitical tensions continue to cool risk appetite
Geopolitical conflict in the Strait of Hormuz continues to escalate, with Iranian officials stating that they may blockade the strait until 2029 in retaliation against the U.S. naval blockade. The crisis in a core global energy corridor directly pushed WTI crude oil to $83.75 per barrel, rapidly shrinking risk appetite across global markets. Compared with gold's stronger safe-haven characteristics, crypto assets' risk profile has become more pronounced, making them the first target of fund avoidance.
2. Delayed regulatory implementation continues to create uncertainty
The vote on the U.S.'s core crypto bill, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, has been postponed until September. The short-term regulatory policy vacuum leaves the market without clear policy guidance. In addition, Hawaii will halt cash crypto-purchasing terminal services in October, with global regulation showing a trend of "structural tightening" that continues to suppress institutional confidence in entering the market.
3. Institutional selling has materialized, with selling pressure persisting
Leading institution Strategy continues to reduce its holdings for cash. After selling 1,690 BTC last week, it once again raised $653 million through a stock issuance, bringing its total BTC holdings down to 840,447. Notably, the institution's average acquisition price is as high as $75,385, leaving it deeply underwater overall at current prices. This creates potential ongoing selling pressure from further position reductions and stop-losses, exerting long-term pressure on the market.
Market summary and outlook
The core keywords for the crypto market on August 13 are decoupling, shrinking volume, shakeout, and range-bound trading. Macro tailwinds have materialized but failed to boost the market, while geopolitical risks, regulatory uncertainty, and institutional selling pressure have created three layers of pressure on BTC. ETH is consolidating weakly due to ETF outflows, a technical breakdown, and cautious capital, but its on-chain fundamentals continue to improve, and its medium- to long-term bottom remains solid.
In the short term, market liquidity has yet to return, and the tug-of-war between bulls and bears will continue. Before a breakout above key resistance, do not chase longs; before core support breaks, do not blindly turn bearish. The more painful the range-bound shakeout, the more worth anticipating the subsequent market shift. Focus on the breakout in trading volume and follow the trend. $BTC
Today's biggest market controversy, and the core question confusing all investors: macro tailwinds are fully in place, yet the crypto market is completely desensitized.
U.S. CPI rose 3.4% year-on-year in July, continuing to fall from 3.5% in June. The data fully matched market expectations, confirming that inflation is cooling. Boosted by this positive news, the Nasdaq rose 0.54%, AI chip and cloud computing stocks collectively surged, and risk assets across U.S. equities rose. But the crypto market remained "completely unmoved": BTC briefly surged 0.3% after the data was released before quickly retreating, while ETH similarly lacked momentum after its spike, firmly entering a weak trend decoupled from U.S. equities.
There is only one core truth: all the positive news had already been priced in.
Expectations for cooling inflation had already been fully absorbed by the market in the earlier rally, leaving no new buying pressure upon realization. Meanwhile, the market is in a typical vacuum period where negative news has been exhausted but positive catalysts have yet to arrive: CME FedWatch data shows the probability of a Fed rate hike in September plunging from 30% to 60%, with tightening risks substantially receding, but the market has not yet formed clear expectations for rate cuts, leaving insufficient incremental logic to support a rebound.
More importantly, gold broke above $4,500 to hit a two-month high. Safe-haven and store-of-value funds have been heavily diverted, further squeezing the upside potential of crypto risk assets and causing the broader market to completely lose its upward momentum.
BTC faces three fatal pressures
Beneath the seemingly subdued range-bound trading, three hidden pressures continue to cap Bitcoin's rebound and are also the core obstacles preventing a short-term breakout:
1. Rising geopolitical tensions continue to cool risk appetite
Geopolitical conflict in the Strait of Hormuz continues to escalate, with Iranian officials stating that they may blockade the strait until 2029 in retaliation against the U.S. naval blockade. The crisis in a core global energy corridor directly pushed WTI crude oil to $83.75 per barrel, rapidly shrinking risk appetite across global markets. Compared with gold's stronger safe-haven characteristics, crypto assets' risk profile has become more pronounced, making them the first target of fund avoidance.
2. Delayed regulatory implementation continues to create uncertainty
The vote on the U.S.'s core crypto bill, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, has been postponed until September. The short-term regulatory policy vacuum leaves the market without clear policy guidance. In addition, Hawaii will halt cash crypto-purchasing terminal services in October, with global regulation showing a trend of "structural tightening" that continues to suppress institutional confidence in entering the market.
3. Institutional selling has materialized, with selling pressure persisting
Leading institution Strategy continues to reduce its holdings for cash. After selling 1,690 BTC last week, it once again raised $653 million through a stock issuance, bringing its total BTC holdings down to 840,447. Notably, the institution's average acquisition price is as high as $75,385, leaving it deeply underwater overall at current prices. This creates potential ongoing selling pressure from further position reductions and stop-losses, exerting long-term pressure on the market.
Market summary and outlook
The core keywords for the crypto market on August 13 are decoupling, shrinking volume, shakeout, and range-bound trading. Macro tailwinds have materialized but failed to boost the market, while geopolitical risks, regulatory uncertainty, and institutional selling pressure have created three layers of pressure on BTC. ETH is consolidating weakly due to ETF outflows, a technical breakdown, and cautious capital, but its on-chain fundamentals continue to improve, and its medium- to long-term bottom remains solid.
In the short term, market liquidity has yet to return, and the tug-of-war between bulls and bears will continue. Before a breakout above key resistance, do not chase longs; before core support breaks, do not blindly turn bearish. The more painful the range-bound shakeout, the more worth anticipating the subsequent market shift. Focus on the breakout in trading volume and follow the trend. $BTC
