#加密市场行情震荡 VanEck issues a double bullish signal for Bitcoin: funds turn negative, hash rate declines
VanEck states that Bitcoin is showing a stronger bullish trend because the deep negative funding rates and the concentrated decline in hash rate (historically associated with robust expected returns) indicate market sentiment is cautious rather than capitulating. The latest on-chain and derivatives data for Bitcoin show a constructive pattern, VanEck points out that negative funding rates and hash rate concentration decline, while volatility diminishes and positions remain cautious.
The company notes in its latest report that as tensions between the U.S. and Iran ease, realized volatility has dropped from about 56% to 41%, and the 7-day average financing rate has fallen to around -1.8%, the lowest since 2023 and in the 10th percentile since the end of 2020.
Since 2020, Bitcoin's 30-day average return during periods of negative funding has been 11.5%, compared to an average return of 4.5% across all periods, with a 77% hit rate for positive returns. When annualized funding rates fall below -5%, the subsequent 30-day average return reaches 19.4%, and the 180-day return is as high as 70%, making negative funding a recurring contrarian buy signal. VanEck’s report also highlights that since 2020, out of 19 windows with 180-day returns among the top 50, 19 began on days with negative funding, even though such periods only account for about 13.6% of the sample.
Bitcoin Hash Rate Declining
In terms of mining, the 30-day moving average hash rate has fallen to the 16th percentile over 30 days and the 9th percentile over 90 days, while mining difficulty has also dropped to the 5th and 6th percentiles within these periods.
Since December 2025, Bitcoin’s hash rate has experienced three consecutive declines, the most intense since China banned mining in 2021, with the most recent drop of about 6.7%, ending around April 15, 2026. Of the seven historic declines completed, six saw Bitcoin prices rise within 90 days, with a median increase of 37.7%, and a median increase of 63.1% over 180 days.
Derivatives and on-chain trading activity reflect cautious market sentiment rather than blind capitulation. The put option premium to spot trading volume ratio is more than six times the April 2024 level, and active supply over the past 180 days has fallen to 28.4%, indicating holders are in a dormant state.
Long-term holders, especially those holding for 7-10 years and over 10 years, have reached the 85th and 90th percentiles in consumption over the past four years. However, VanEck emphasizes that this change does not always signify a complete sell-off.
Overall, the company concludes that a combination of capital shortages and hash rate pressure creates a strong outlook for Bitcoin’s rise.
Analysts write: “The decline in mining rate and negative funding rates are both associated with strong expected returns for Bitcoin. Therefore, we are increasingly optimistic about Bitcoin.”
VanEck states that Bitcoin is showing a stronger bullish trend because the deep negative funding rates and the concentrated decline in hash rate (historically associated with robust expected returns) indicate market sentiment is cautious rather than capitulating. The latest on-chain and derivatives data for Bitcoin show a constructive pattern, VanEck points out that negative funding rates and hash rate concentration decline, while volatility diminishes and positions remain cautious.
The company notes in its latest report that as tensions between the U.S. and Iran ease, realized volatility has dropped from about 56% to 41%, and the 7-day average financing rate has fallen to around -1.8%, the lowest since 2023 and in the 10th percentile since the end of 2020.
Since 2020, Bitcoin's 30-day average return during periods of negative funding has been 11.5%, compared to an average return of 4.5% across all periods, with a 77% hit rate for positive returns. When annualized funding rates fall below -5%, the subsequent 30-day average return reaches 19.4%, and the 180-day return is as high as 70%, making negative funding a recurring contrarian buy signal. VanEck’s report also highlights that since 2020, out of 19 windows with 180-day returns among the top 50, 19 began on days with negative funding, even though such periods only account for about 13.6% of the sample.
Bitcoin Hash Rate Declining
In terms of mining, the 30-day moving average hash rate has fallen to the 16th percentile over 30 days and the 9th percentile over 90 days, while mining difficulty has also dropped to the 5th and 6th percentiles within these periods.
Since December 2025, Bitcoin’s hash rate has experienced three consecutive declines, the most intense since China banned mining in 2021, with the most recent drop of about 6.7%, ending around April 15, 2026. Of the seven historic declines completed, six saw Bitcoin prices rise within 90 days, with a median increase of 37.7%, and a median increase of 63.1% over 180 days.
Derivatives and on-chain trading activity reflect cautious market sentiment rather than blind capitulation. The put option premium to spot trading volume ratio is more than six times the April 2024 level, and active supply over the past 180 days has fallen to 28.4%, indicating holders are in a dormant state.
Long-term holders, especially those holding for 7-10 years and over 10 years, have reached the 85th and 90th percentiles in consumption over the past four years. However, VanEck emphasizes that this change does not always signify a complete sell-off.
Overall, the company concludes that a combination of capital shortages and hash rate pressure creates a strong outlook for Bitcoin’s rise.
Analysts write: “The decline in mining rate and negative funding rates are both associated with strong expected returns for Bitcoin. Therefore, we are increasingly optimistic about Bitcoin.”
