glassnode

1.05M $BTC of long-term holder supply sits between $83K and $86K, the first heavy cost-basis shelf above spot at $79K.
Effectively all of it has held through the entire drawdown, making that band the test of whether patient supply sells at breakeven.
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Bitcoin Vector's impulse flipped positive from the lows.
bitcoin:native has advanced roughly 20% since.
The strategy is currently fully allocated and in profit, and the next upside target sits at $82.8k.
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$5 billion of IBIT options expire on September 18.
Most of that is calls: $3B vs $2B in puts.
Max pain sits at $40, which corresponds to a bitcoin:native price of approximately $71k.

bitcoin:native has surged toward $80k as spot, derivatives and ETF demand accelerate. Rising activity and profitability support the move, though muted macro inflows suggest it remains tactically driven.
Read this week’s Market Pulse👇

Market buyers stepped in heavily as bitcoin:native edged above $64k.
This buy-side aggression then helped to fuel the breakout and kept volume delta consistently positive until $76k.
That buy pressure remains strong at these levels.

The altcoin market has entered a state of optimism.
85% of alts reached funding rates above their mean.
This is the highest print we've seen for this metric since BTC was trading at all time highs.
In an alt season, these conditions can last for many weeks.

Close to $1B has flowed into Bitcoin ETFs in the last 3 days.
This is the strongest 3-day inflow since $BTC was last trading above $80k.

The dollar debasement narrative is back after the Treasury’s latest buyback announcement.
bitcoin:native has led the move, up about 21% since the announcement, while gold also rose and equities barely moved.

The last daily bitcoin:native close this large was in February, and that was just the rebound from the -14% day before it.
This one had no crash to bounce off. Against its own 30d volatility it was a 5.8 sigma move – the largest to the upside since October 2023.

$500m worth of shorts were just liquidated within minutes.
As BTC spiked to over $69k, open interest dropped due to positions being force-closed.
It looks like the market was predominantly short for this move up.

Most public bitcoin:native treasuries are underwater.
Price is below their aggregate cost basis, and the share of companies sitting at a loss has climbed back toward around 80%

Strong hands are buying bitcoin:native.
Bottoms are formed when profit taking slows and conviction buyers step in. This setup looks similar to what we saw during 2022.
The largest increase in BTC held by conviction buyers occurred when BTC dropped to $60k in January.

$BTC has held Defensive for two weeks, 30/100 on the Glassnode Market Compass.
Macro did the lifting, +24 on the month. Valuation stays at the cycle's discounted end, 16/100.
Cheap and improving. The missing leg is flows, light at 30.
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bitcoin:native holds near $63.6k as weak spot liquidity, ETF outflows and loss realization keep conditions subdued. Stabilising capital flows suggest selling pressure may be easing, but conviction remains limited.
Read this week’s Market Pulse👇

This is one of the cheapest times to buy volatility in years.
However, the data shows recent buyers still did not make money.
bitcoin:native simply delivered less movement than people paid for.