glassnode

Existing holders have been carrying this bitcoin:native rally.
The realized cap keeps climbing while new money from ETFs, stablecoins and treasuries is dropping.
The 2024 and 2025 rallies showed the same gap, but on far larger inflows. A pickup in new money would put real demand behind BTC.

Bitcoin is moving into support.
After a rejection from the sell wall at $86.5K, bitcoin:native has slid toward multiple large buy orders. The largest sits around $81k.
These bids have been patiently waiting and will help to dampen downside.

Large entities are back in profit.
Small wallets stayed in profit the whole time: at the June low, bitcoin:native held well above their $48K cost basis while sharks and whales slipped underwater.
In the 2022 bear market, price fell below every group's cost basis.

bitcoin:native trades near $86k after a Sunday rally lifted the weekly close about 2% higher. Derivatives positioning eased back into its normal range and ETF inflows cooled, while on-chain activity, new capital and profit-taking all run hot.

Whales have stopped sending bitcoin:native to exchanges.
Their summer run of net deposits lasted over three months, twice as long as any other since 2023.
It ended in late August, and the flow has stayed negative since.

bitcoin:native's largest overhead liquidation cluster sits near $90k.
If price touches this level, leveraged shorts will be forced to closes their positions.
Zoom into the last two months and smaller clusters can be seen around $83k and $75k.
Either side could speed up the next move.

bitcoin:native long-term holders stayed in profit this entire cycle.
No bear market since at least 2015 has done that.
In each prior bear, LTH-MVRV fell below 1 at the cycle low, putting the cohort underwater.
This time it bottomed above 1 and is now climbing again.

$BTC investors that bought the top are currently selling.
Two cohorts sit underwater: buyers from 1–2 years ago at $97k, and from 6–12 months ago at $89k.
Those who bought the 2025 rally are selling the most coins per day this year. Those who bought the decline are not.

Bitcoin's relative strength is back.
In June, bitcoin:native beat the S&P 500 on just 1/5th of trading days, the weakest stretch in six years.
Its win rate is now back above 50% with stocks flat. This points to an idiosyncratic bid for Bitcoin itself.

$BTC is rallying on less leverage.
Price is up 35% from the August low, while coin-denominated open interest is down almost 20%.
That puts open interest at its lowest since March, potentially making the rally less susceptible to leverage flushes.

bitcoin:native has stalled under its heaviest supply cluster.
More long-term holder coins sit at $84k–$85k than at any other price on the chart.
Price needs to break through and hold above this level for the rally to continue.

Bitcoin trades near $84k after a week that closed about 4% higher. ETF inflows carried the gain while perpetual traders and profit-takers sold into it, and Monday's dip takes price back to the lower end of its range.

Spot traders are turning to altcoins.
Total spot volume now runs close to 4x Bitcoin's, the highest since September 2025.
Demand for higher risk like this has often lined up with local tops in $BTC .

Strategy Watch is our monthly read on fund performance, capital flows, and allocator positioning across digital assets, produced with @CIG_Crypto
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Holders are realizing profits on bitcoin:native.
However, the amounts remain relatively low, with $5.1B in net profit realized over the last 7 days.
They look closer to late 2023 levels than to what we saw at major tops.