TidalShellReflection

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission on the same day approved Kalshi's Bitcoin perpetual contracts and issued a no-enforcement letter to Coinbase, as well as releasing the "Perpetual Contract Listing Policy Statement," establishing a compliant pathway for truly perpetual contracts in the U.S. market. Kalshi is taking the DCM route, while Coinbase is entering the U.S. market through overseas futures and crypto collateral. This will promote more assets to land and enhance the U.S.'s competitiveness in the global crypto derivatives ecosystem.

CryptoQuant News, citing Evernorth, reports that the tokenization of real-world assets (RWA) on XRP has surged from $10 million to $400 million over the past 15 months, growing at more than twice the speed of Ethereum. Since 2026, RWA on the XRP Ledger has risen from approximately $227 million to over $404 million, with a year-to-date growth rate of 78%. Over the same period, Ethereum’s growth was about 35%. XRP’s rate of expansion for tokenized assets also outpaces Avalanche and Polygon, showing its competitiveness in institutional tokenized finance. Although it ranks around 11th by total RWA value, XRP’s market capitalization is close to the top tier among comparable blockchain networks. Analysts say this gap may signal rising expectations for institutional adoption.

Bought some AVGO Broadcom

On the surface, the Middle East situation appears to be cooling down, and the Hormuz shipping is gradually recovering, but in reality, concerns over war, energy, and global liquidity have not been alleviated. Over the past 24 hours, approximately 4 million barrels of non-sanctioned crude oil have passed through Hormuz, with the US and Iran still experiencing friction near the strait, remaining in a fragile limited ceasefire. Even if an agreement is reached, Middle Eastern risks could continue to impact global energy, inflation, and interest rates for months, and the peace news has been met with indifference. The rise in AI stocks and resource risks coexist, with global resource competition intensifying. The crypto market shows high leverage and news-driven characteristics, making it prone to liquidations once volatility occurs. Overall, there are three simultaneous risks: high valuations, high interest rates, and high geopolitical risks.

According to ME News on April 18th (UTC+8), forecast market data shows that under the event "What will be the impact on WTI crude oil in April 2026?", the probability of the "Yes" option for the question "Will WTI crude oil prices fall below $70 in April 2026?" increased from 7.5% to 60.5%, a single-day rise of 53.0 percentage points.

ME News reports that there will be large multi-currency unlocks next week, including approximately 105 million H tokens (3.86% of circulation, about $22.2 million), approximately 88.89 million XPL tokens (3.69%, about $7.4 million), approximately 229 million KMNO tokens (3.16%, about $4.6 million), approximately 132 million SAHARA tokens (4.06%, about $4.5 million), and approximately 354 million GUN tokens (14.53%, about $4.2 million), all from PANews.

CryptoWorld News reports that the well-known trader Loracle’s HYPE short position unrealized loss has narrowed from $24.737M (-116.32%) to $22.699M (-108.83%). The current HYPE token price is $57.85, the average price is $45.26, the liquidation price is $83.34, and the position size is $104 million.

CryptoWorld News: European Commission President von der Leyen: Russia and Belarus should be held directly responsible for drone activities that threaten the lives and safety of civilians.

CoinWorld News: Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Bagheri said on the evening of the 20th local time that regarding the Iran–US situation, the security of the Strait of Hormuz, and the United States’ pressure on Iran, Iran will continue to push forward with negotiations under “strong distrust of the United States,” while firmly safeguarding national interests. Bagheri said Iran is currently exchanging information with the United States through intermediaries in Pakistan, and Tehran’s core demands include ending regional conflicts, unfreezing Iran’s overseas assets, and stopping the “seaborne hijacking” actions targeting Iran’s shipping. He said that although U.S. actions over the past 1.5 years have left a negative record, Iran is still advancing the diplomatic process with a “serious and good-faith” attitude, while maintaining “strong and reasonable distrust” toward the United States.

ME News Report, May 22 (UTC+8), prediction market data shows that within 24 hours, multiple addresses concentrated on the event "Will the U.S. launch an attack on Iran before February 22, 2026?" and selected the outcome "Will the U.S. launch an attack on Iran before February 22, 2026?", with a total bet amount of approximately $2.1M, indicating that this outcome has attracted significant funds in a short period.

CryptoWorld News: Renowned trader Loracle's HYPE short position loss has narrowed from $21.94M (-106.48%) to $19.88M (-98.47%). The current HYPE token price is $56.35, with a liquidation price of $90.00, and a position size of $100,965,532.90.

May 20th, possibly the most critical night in the recent market
This time, the market is not only watching the earnings report of Nvidia.
Even more importantly — the Federal Reserve meeting minutes are also released on the same day.
A decision on whether the global AI narrative can continue to surge, and a decision on whether dollar liquidity will loosen again.
And the crypto market is now precisely caught between these two variables.
First, let's talk about Nvidia.
Recently, the strength of the AI sector has been sustained mainly because the market still believes that “the computing power cycle has not ended.”
If Nvidia continues to beat expectations this time, indicating that global AI demand is still exploding, then not only will US tech stocks keep rallying, but the Crypto AI track is also likely to be reignited by capital.
Directions like AI Agents, DePIN, computing power, and data layers could likely see a new wave of sentiment-driven rallies.
Because many funds are now starting to link AI and crypto narratives together.
Especially some on-chain AI projects are increasingly resembling “crypto versions of tech stocks.”
On the other hand, the Federal Reserve meeting minutes are also very critical.
What the market fears most now is not necessarily a rate cut, but “prolonged high interest rates.”
If the minutes lean hawkish, meaning dollar liquidity continues to tighten, altcoins will suffer greatly.
Recently, many small tokens have already shown signs of “shrinking trading volume + no sustained pump.”
This indicates that the money in the market has not truly come back.
So, on May 20th, a possible scenario is:
Nvidia’s earnings report is bullish for risk assets, but the Fed’s hawkish stance suppresses market liquidity.
At that point, BTC might experience sharp volatility first, then the market will re-choose its direction.
Crypto today is increasingly unlike the market of the past, which was driven purely by sentiment and hype.
It is now truly influenced by global macro factors, tech cycles, and US dollar interest rates.
In a sense, today’s BTC is more like a “global liquidity thermometer.”
And May 20th could very well be the watershed for the next phase of the market.