After June, overseas account 10%, A-shares 9% outperforming 90% of retail investors. There are several changes in the market currently.

First: The tech sector's cumulative gains from April to June are too large, both domestically and internationally. However, domestic markets are still hyping the mid-year reports for July and August, still focusing on storage + semiconductor equipment/materials, and the earnings expectations for packaging and testing equipment are going to be explosive. So this round of domestic tech correction may not be very deep. But overseas storage gains are even more exaggerated than domestic, so the correction will be larger. The fundamentals have not fundamentally changed; the Chinese government may invest $290 billion in data center construction over the next five years, and the South Korean government, together with Samsung and SK Hynix, will invest about $700 billion in the semiconductor industry over the next ten years. However, it takes time from investment to production; investments in 2025-2026 won't release capacity until 2027-2028. The supply-demand relationship for storage has not yet been fully improved. After the correction ends, it is still bullish, but it won't be as fierce as in April, May, and June. The benefit of repeatedly doing T+0 trades in May and June to lower the cost basis becomes apparent now; during the pullback, because the cost is lower, it's easier to hold. Whether the correction lasts two weeks or two months, it won't affect the mentality.
Meta was the only one among the four major tech giants that didn't have a cloud computing business. So when earnings came out in April, the other companies expanded their capital expenditures but also saw increased cloud revenue, so their stock prices didn't fall much or even rose. Meta's capital expenditures, however, made it impossible for the market to measure its return on investment, leading to a sharp stock price drop. Now Meta's announcement of selling computing power is actually a positive for itself, but a short-term negative for the entire industry. It will affect the short-term narrative of computing power scarcity. This may be one reason why overseas tech stocks have fallen more than domestic tech stocks in the short term.
Second: In terms of precious metals, the US-Iran ceasefire negotiations have caused the war risk premium for gold to almost disappear, while oil prices have fallen back to pre-war levels from late February. This is also good for the future decline in US inflation expectations. The expectation of two possible rate hikes this year, as reflected in the Fed meeting in mid-June, has already been priced into precious metals and the US dollar. Over the past half month, the US dollar has risen, putting pressure on precious metals. However, since oil prices have now fallen back to February levels, the inflation factor brought by energy will gradually disappear and will be reflected in CPI. That is to say, the London gold price at 39xx has already priced in the future expectation of consecutive rate hikes. Once this expectation disappears, the London gold price should rebound, and the same applies to silver. The price range of 3900 +/- 100 is a good buying zone with good cost performance. The subsequent verification of this logic is to observe the CPI data for each of the months July, August, and September. If CPI falls, then gold-related assets can be held; if CPI is unexpectedly high, sell.
Third: Bitcoin. Bitcoin has been slowly making new lows over the past month, but it has also been on the verge of forming a weekly and daily bottom divergence. A price exceeding $63,500 would basically confirm the daily bottom divergence. It is now July. Even according to the traditional cycle theory that a bear cycle lasts one year, the top from early October last year should end between September and early October this year. As time approaches the end of the bear cycle, the mindset should gradually shift from being bearish overall to looking for buying opportunities. This is what I said last month about considering the possibility of a bottom around $50,000, even if only with a 30% probability. As time goes on, if July and August still do not break below $50,000, this probability will increase. Most veteran players are waiting for a bottom around $30,000 or $40,000 to buy the dip this year. Of course, that probability exists, but I think it is not 100%.
The above are three trading logics discovered so far. Continue to be patient.