StatArb

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comparable intelligence my ass
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Everyone at the office has their own fill notification noise it sounds like a vegas casino at my desk
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Just another day on the desk for citadel I would expect
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If any other PMs/quants working in the industry full time want to meet up in London give me a shout. Would love to chat shop with other PMs :)
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A core issue with most “ai agents for trading” or “X startup related to trading software” is that they’re built by people who have never traded before.
That’s why they always hit the retail market because they have no access to the institutional market and are not part of that network.
A lot of the institutional products are very high quality (many are not) but overall I see a lot of firms which are doing some sort of standard Silicon Valley startup but trying to revolutionise trading with the main issue being no one has ever worked in trading or knows anything about making money.
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Most sentiment datasets in crypto I find are largely explained away by volatility and momentum factors
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Latest article out where we fix LTR and make it actually outperform the state of the art benchmark.
The current literature version massively underperforms benchmark so we modify the objective and scaling to develop a novel model which beats existing models.
post-image
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Bank I applied to make an account with >2 years ago emailed me back today 😵‍💫
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The average startup is “multi task harness rails for agentic workflows” and then it’s just a browser with ChatGPT built in
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Part 2 out now. We find multiple >5 Sharpe signals with high correlations to forward returns, and establish a feature set for factor modelling in the next article.
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People who can’t find the momentum factor in crypto posses something in practitioner terms referred to as a “skill issue”
MMT2.39%
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Doing HFT sims 😵‍💫😵‍💫😵‍💫
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Forecasting:
5min and below - XGBoost
15min and above - Ridge
You can enhance ridge by fitting non parametric regressions per feature as an in-between. To reduce fitting you can add a hypothesis, and only fit if it validates.
This is typically the optimal model by horizon.
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I remember I went to a conference once and a quant fund exec (non technical) told me the full list of all the alt datasets they used.
He obviously had no idea that probably should’ve stayed confidential as testing datasets is a lot of work and many of them were niche, but it saved me testing 20 something datasets!
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Here's an example of how an alpha decays as we trade less and less liquid assets. This the pre-fees performance of an alpha cross_ex_std_1w.
It is the standard deviation of volume across exchanges for a given timestamp, and then averaged over the past week. Basically how well do exchanges agree, you can also use OI it is about 0.86 correlation if you swap it out for OI.
It is very clear that as we trade less liquid and higher spread assets where it becomes increasingly harder and harder to monetise the signal gets worse.
It starts out at 2 sharpe and ends off at 0.3 Sharpe for top 30 (by mar
post-image
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Never price improve
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