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Profile

SergioTesla

vip
Age 2.4 Year
Peak Tier 0
No content yet
$BTC
Every trader plays scenarios in their head. For example, "What if we rotate down to take out today's low?"
I've built something that shows you what a scenario actually looks like based on similar days in history.
It finds days with a matching price-action profile, then overlays the path the successful outcomes took. In this case: taking out the daily low.
In this example: days that ended up taking out the daily low typically consolidated 8AM–1PM UTC, then accelerated into the lows after 1PM.
It only plays out 27% of the time, not a high-probability setup per se. But now you know what the
BTC-1.32%
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$BTC
Every trader plays scenarios in their head. "What if we rotate down to take out today's low?"
I've built something that shows you what that scenario actually looks like based on similar days in history.
It finds days with a matching price-action profile, then overlays the path the successful outcomes took.
In this example: days that ended up taking out the daily low typically consolidated 8AM–1PM UTC, then accelerated into the lows after 1PM.
It only plays out 27% of the time, not a high-probability setup per se. But now you know what the reaction should look like.
No acceleration toward
BTC-1.32%
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I've been deep in agentic systems for months and I'm now convinced: the trading space is on the verge of massive disruption.
This upcoming bull run, we'll see the mainstream rise of traders using agentic analysis to hone their edge. I've been blown away by what's possible with agentic analysis and once you see it, there's no going back.
But most people will get the differentiator wrong. It's not the agent. Everyone will have agents. It comes down to two things: the quality of the data you feed it, and the ability to guide and let the agent self-learn.
Will start posting about my findings soon
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Gm. On my way home to Portugal and to the charts.
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$BTC
Current monthly confidence targets:
- If the monthly low holds, 90% of months historically see enough displacement from low to high to reach ~98.9k
- If the monthly high holds, 90% of months historically see enough downside displacement from high to low to reach ~84.5k
- Only 4.5% of months historically fail to displace further, meaning both the high and low were already in
BTC-1.32%
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$BTC
In the chart below, I plotted intra-week price action for the past three years and grouped weeks into:
•the top 33% most bullish weeks
•the middle 33% (average weeks)
•the bottom 33% most bearish weeks
For example, green band shows where 80% of closes occurred during the most bullish weeks.
Right now, price is clearly tracking the bullish profile. One early takeaway: bullish weeks tend to grind higher throughout the week.
How much higher? That’s where confidence targets come in. Plotting them highlights the price levels that a given percentage of bullish or bearish weeks historically reac
BTC-1.32%
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$BTC
In the chart below, I plotted intrawEEK price action for the past three years and grouped weeks into:
•the top 33% most bullish weeks
•the middle 33% (average weeks)
•the bottom 33% most bearish weeks
For example, green band shows where 80% of closes occurred during the most bullish weeks.
Right now, price is clearly tracking the bullish profile. One early takeaway: bullish weeks tend to grind higher throughout the week.
How much higher? That’s where confidence targets come in. Plotting them highlights the price levels that a given percentage of bullish or bearish weeks historically reach
BTC-1.32%
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$BTC
The weekly low is probably not in yet:
- 88.2% of bearish weeks see more displacement between high and low
- 76.2% of weeks put in the second extreme (high or low) later than Thursday 7AM UTC
Lower
BTC-1.32%
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$BTC
Why the monthly open PA is statistically bearish (in the immediate term), backed by data.
We started the month of January with a bullish pump, but will it last? We can look at the statistical quality of the monthly low to get an idea.
@BrighterData is flagging 2 warnings for the monthly low:
- 90.7% of months put in the first extreme (monthly high or low) later than the 4th trading hour of the month
- 97.1% of months have a bigger wick at the monthly low when the monthly low is first
This means that the monthly low is unusually early and has an unusually small wick. These lows hold only d
BTC-1.32%
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I’m not big on New Year’s resolutions. But the end of the year is a good moment to step back.
Review what went well. Be honest about what didn’t.
That gives you a real foundation for setting your goals and direction for the year ahead.
Success isn’t about hitting 100% of your goals. If you do, your goals were too conservative.
I usually hit ~60%. Another ~20% I get closer, directionally. And ~20% I miss completely.
Some goals are too ambitious. Others lose priority as reality unfolds.
This yearly reflection matters because it does two things:
1. It pulls you out of day-to-day execution and fo
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$BTC
To finish this month with the current monthly high AND monthly low intact would be a very rare occurrence:
- 93% of months see more displacement between the monthly low and monthly high
- 92.9% of months put in the second extreme of the month later than the 9th trading day 17:00 UTC
BTC-1.32%
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$BTC
During my public stream yesterday I explained that:
1. I was expecting the weekly high to not be in
2. However, I thought the highs would be put in not far from the (then) current weekly high
In other words: every break of the weekly high would likely be shallow. This is still my stance:
The reason being is the time and distance statistics from @BrighterData. Yesterday, at the time of the stream, they were the following:
- 87.8% of P2s (weekly high) were put in later
- 27.5% of bullish weeks see more displacement from low to high
This means that the weekly was getting pretty exhausted in
BTC-1.32%
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$BTC
During my public stream yesterday I explained that:
1. I was expecting the weekly high to not be in
2. However, I thought the highs would be put in not far from the (then) current weekly high
In other words: every break of the weekly high would likely be shallow. This is still my stance:
The reason being is the time and distance statistics from @BrighterData. Yesterday, at the time of the stream, they were the following:
- 87.8% of P2s (weekly high) were put in later
- 27.5% of bullish weeks see more displacement from low to high
This means that the weekly was getting pretty exhausted in
BTC-1.32%
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$BTC
Why this monthly open dump is Bullish - backed by data.
Price just dropped a whopping 5.5% on the opening of the month, which gives more reason to look for longs than not to.
The monthly high is currently P1, of which we can say the following:
- 94.1% of monthly P1s form later
- 97.6% of monthly P1s have a bigger wick
In simple terms: if the current monthly high were to hold, then it would be put in unusually early and unusually close to the monthly open.
If you don’t know what P1 is, comment P1 and I’ll send you a simple explanation.
Given the stats, this monthly high is a weak high. It
BTC-1.32%
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$BTC
Why this monthly open dump is Bullish - backed by data.
Price just dropped a whopping 5.5% on the opening of the month, which gives more reason to look for longs than not to.
The monthly high is currently P1, of which we can say the following:
- 94.1% of monthly P1s form later
- 97.6% of monthly P1s have a bigger wick
In simple terms: if the current monthly high were to hold, then it would be put in unusually early and unusually close to the monthly open.
If you do not know what P1 is, then comment 'P1' and I will send you a link to a simple tutorial that explains it.
So this means that t
BTC-1.32%
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$BTC
Probably still a bit of upside left to go on the weekly for Bitcoin:
- Current Weekly P2 at Thursday 09:30 AM, 7.9% above weekly low
- 76.9% of weeks put in a P2 later
- 71.3% of bullish weeks see more displacement
So while the meat of the weekly move already happened, shorting here already does not seem like a high probability play.
BTC-1.32%
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Betterforever:
$BTC
Bitcoin may still have some pump space on the weekly chart:
- The current weekly P2 is at 09:30 AM on Thursday, which is 7.9% higher than the weekly low.
- 76.9% of the weeks invested in P2 later.
- 71.3% of bullish weeks saw more displacement.
So although the weekly Fluctuation has already occurred, shorting here does not seem to be a high probability operation.
I’ve been a bit quieter lately. When the market isn’t offering anything meaningful, I shift my attention back to building.
Right now I’m deep in the design of the next version of @BrighterData. It’s more complex than anything we’ve done so far, and once I'm in a hard problem I can't let go until I solve it.
I’m not buying these levels, I’m not selling either. Just waiting. In the meantime, building the next evolution of BD is the best use of my attention.
The direction is clear and I’m excited about where it’s heading. Execution is what matters now.
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We posted a vacancy for @BrighterData recently and got 40 applications. The funny part is that the ones NOT written with AI stood out instantly.
Most applications looked like the perfect submission from five years ago. Long, polished, every skill neatly lined up, CV looking like the applicant’s entire career had been engineered for exactly what we needed.
The problem was that I had 30 of those. None of them stood out. They were too perfect and too artificial. In the end we chose the “less perfect” applications that were clearly written by an actual human.
What used to be the gold standard for
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$BTC
Monthly statistics are still biased for further downside:
- 82% of monthly P2s are put in later
- 82.9% of bearish months see more bearish displacement
BTC-1.32%
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