$BTC
Looking at what typically happens after a sweep of the previous low, we can determine logical targets for this move up.
What I did was select all previous times where the lowest point after a sweep was put in within the first 2.5 hours after the sweep.
Then I looked at where and when highs typically get put in for those events: 50% of similar events put in the weekly high at 61k.
If we look at the current high:
- 77% of pwLow sweeps (with a similar timed low) put in the high further above pwLow
- 86% of pwLow sweeps put in the highest point later
These statistics are for the 2 days after

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SergioTesla

06-22 08:24

$BTC
GM.
- 100% of weeks that close bullish put the weekly low in further below the open
- 87% of weeks that close bullish put in the weekly low later.
Weekly low is not in

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SergioTesla

06-05 12:10

Rule #1 when trading with data: don't take a handful of data points and call it a pattern.
It's like flipping a coin and landing heads 5 times in a row and therefore concluding the chance of hitting heads on a coin flip is 100%.

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SergioTesla

05-21 18:45

Last October we hit our best month ever at @BrighterData.
Growth was strong. Retention was solid. Momentum was there.
Most companies would look at that and say:
“Double down. Scale harder. Push marketing.”
We did the opposite.
We completely stopped marketing.
Stopped streams.
Stopped pushing the product.
Not because it wasn’t working.
Because we realized it wasn’t good enough.
We stepped back and started asking harder questions:
- What is the real value we provide?
- Why are people actually using this?
- What could this become if we rebuilt it from first principles?
The uncomfortable truth was

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SergioTesla

05-19 13:45

$BTC
Today is Tuesday: over the last year, this has been the day that has closed bearish most often.

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SergioTesla

04-29 12:47

$BTC
Every trader plays scenarios in their head. For example, "What if we rotate down to take out today's low?"
I've built something that shows you what a scenario actually looks like based on similar days in history.
It finds days with a matching price-action profile, then overlays the path the successful outcomes took. In this case: taking out the daily low.
In this example: days that ended up taking out the daily low typically consolidated 8AM–1PM UTC, then accelerated into the lows after 1PM.
It only plays out 27% of the time, not a high-probability setup per se. But now you know what the

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SergioTesla

04-29 12:25

$BTC
Every trader plays scenarios in their head. "What if we rotate down to take out today's low?"
I've built something that shows you what that scenario actually looks like based on similar days in history.
It finds days with a matching price-action profile, then overlays the path the successful outcomes took.
In this example: days that ended up taking out the daily low typically consolidated 8AM–1PM UTC, then accelerated into the lows after 1PM.
It only plays out 27% of the time, not a high-probability setup per se. But now you know what the reaction should look like.
No acceleration toward

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SergioTesla

04-09 13:59

I've been deep in agentic systems for months and I'm now convinced: the trading space is on the verge of massive disruption.
This upcoming bull run, we'll see the mainstream rise of traders using agentic analysis to hone their edge. I've been blown away by what's possible with agentic analysis and once you see it, there's no going back.
But most people will get the differentiator wrong. It's not the agent. Everyone will have agents. It comes down to two things: the quality of the data you feed it, and the ability to guide and let the agent self-learn.
Will start posting about my findings soon

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SergioTesla

03-16 08:14

Gm. On my way home to Portugal and to the charts.

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SergioTesla

01-20 12:12

$BTC
Current monthly confidence targets:
- If the monthly low holds, 90% of months historically see enough displacement from low to high to reach ~98.9k
- If the monthly high holds, 90% of months historically see enough downside displacement from high to low to reach ~84.5k
- Only 4.5% of months historically fail to displace further, meaning both the high and low were already in

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SergioTesla

01-15 13:57

$BTC
In the chart below, I plotted intra-week price action for the past three years and grouped weeks into:
•the top 33% most bullish weeks
•the middle 33% (average weeks)
•the bottom 33% most bearish weeks
For example, green band shows where 80% of closes occurred during the most bullish weeks.
Right now, price is clearly tracking the bullish profile. One early takeaway: bullish weeks tend to grind higher throughout the week.
How much higher? That’s where confidence targets come in. Plotting them highlights the price levels that a given percentage of bullish or bearish weeks historically reac

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SergioTesla

01-15 13:45

$BTC
In the chart below, I plotted intrawEEK price action for the past three years and grouped weeks into:
•the top 33% most bullish weeks
•the middle 33% (average weeks)
•the bottom 33% most bearish weeks
For example, green band shows where 80% of closes occurred during the most bullish weeks.
Right now, price is clearly tracking the bullish profile. One early takeaway: bullish weeks tend to grind higher throughout the week.
How much higher? That’s where confidence targets come in. Plotting them highlights the price levels that a given percentage of bullish or bearish weeks historically reach

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SergioTesla

01-08 12:19

$BTC
The weekly low is probably not in yet:
- 88.2% of bearish weeks see more displacement between high and low
- 76.2% of weeks put in the second extreme (high or low) later than Thursday 7AM UTC
Lower

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SergioTesla

01-05 11:03

$BTC
Why the monthly open PA is statistically bearish (in the immediate term), backed by data.
We started the month of January with a bullish pump, but will it last? We can look at the statistical quality of the monthly low to get an idea.
@BrighterData is flagging 2 warnings for the monthly low:
- 90.7% of months put in the first extreme (monthly high or low) later than the 4th trading hour of the month
- 97.1% of months have a bigger wick at the monthly low when the monthly low is first
This means that the monthly low is unusually early and has an unusually small wick. These lows hold only d

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SergioTesla

2025-12-31 17:44

I’m not big on New Year’s resolutions. But the end of the year is a good moment to step back.
Review what went well. Be honest about what didn’t.
That gives you a real foundation for setting your goals and direction for the year ahead.
Success isn’t about hitting 100% of your goals. If you do, your goals were too conservative.
I usually hit ~60%. Another ~20% I get closer, directionally. And ~20% I miss completely.
Some goals are too ambitious. Others lose priority as reality unfolds.
This yearly reflection matters because it does two things:
1. It pulls you out of day-to-day execution and fo

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SergioTesla

2025-12-23 14:04

$BTC
To finish this month with the current monthly high AND monthly low intact would be a very rare occurrence:
- 93% of months see more displacement between the monthly low and monthly high
- 92.9% of months put in the second extreme of the month later than the 9th trading day 17:00 UTC

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SergioTesla

2025-12-04 10:29

$BTC
During my public stream yesterday I explained that:
1. I was expecting the weekly high to not be in
2. However, I thought the highs would be put in not far from the (then) current weekly high
In other words: every break of the weekly high would likely be shallow. This is still my stance:
The reason being is the time and distance statistics from @BrighterData. Yesterday, at the time of the stream, they were the following:
- 87.8% of P2s (weekly high) were put in later
- 27.5% of bullish weeks see more displacement from low to high
This means that the weekly was getting pretty exhausted in

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