SergioTesla

bitcoin:native
No need to get too greedy here heading into range highs. The range is the range, until it breaks. Potential range deviation between 82k and 90k.
Probably some upside left still, but as we know we're looking for Bitcoin to return to it's dominant state on the lower timeframe as well: range-bound.
So looking for a local range to form here again in the coming 1/2 weeks and take it from there.

$BTC
Just noticed that daily RSI closed above 70 yesterday, which - contrary to common belief - is historically speaking BULLISH.
We've had 37 historical events where daily RSI closed above 70, of which 78% ended higher after 30 days.
Median returns for different forward-looking periods and RSI levels in the chart below. For example, we can see that the median return 30 days after closing RSI above 70 is +10.7%.
In general, overbought RSI is a momentum signal, not a mean-reversion signal.

$BTC
Just noticed that daily RSI closed above 70 yesterday, which - contrary to common belief - is historically speaking BULLISH.
We've had 37 historical events where daily RSI closed above 70, of which 78% ended higher after 30 days.
Median returns for different forward-looking periods and RSI levels in the chart below.
But in general, overbought RSI is a momentum signal, not a mean-reversion signal.

$BTC
I normally don’t do price targets, but my next bull market target for Bitcoin is around $175k.
I could explain the math, but I know most don’t care anyway.
So to keep it brief, the model basically comes down to four principles:
1. Observed: Bitcoin has experienced diminishing returns between cycles.
2. Observed: Return retention increased from ~0.16 to ~0.33 in the last completed cycle.
3. Assumption: Return retention cannot sustainably exceed 1, or diminishing returns eventually become increasing returns.
4. Assumption: Therefore, retention growth must itself diminish and approach 1 over

$BTC
This is looking like a strong breakout from the lower range so far. If it sustains, history gives us a rough idea of how long the trending phase could last.
Using some simple statistics, we know that Bitcoin breakouts tend to be relatively short-lived. Over the last 3 years:
- 83.1% of the time was spent inside confirmed ranges
- 16.9% of the time was spent outside confirmed ranges
In other words, for every 100 days, only ~17 are spent in the actual breakout phase where price is searching for a new value area.
Now let's apply that ratio to the range we're currently attempting to break out

This example of the '24 range illustrates nicely why you don't want to map market structure when price is in a range.
By the time structure "breaks" to the upside or downside, price has already reached the other side of the range and is ready for a reversal.
So a "confirmed" MS break will do nothing for you but leave you one step behind. This is obviously true until the range finally breaks out, but by that time you will have been wrong multiple times.
This is one of the key mistakes people make when it comes to mapping market structure.
They do not recognize the third and most important state

$BTC
Not interested in anything until we reach either 61.2k (local range lows) or 66.9k (local range high).
Meanwhile, I'm working on automating my market structure & range system - as always powered and explained by data.

$BTC
These are the 4 most similar weeks in terms of Price Action. As you can see, all of them just ranged for the remainder of the week.
A local range here would be completely normal, so not expecting much more from the remainder of this week based on this.
And as we know, we probably have volatility coming in next week. Calm before the storm.

$BTC
Bear Market Bottom

$BTC
CPI just came in cooler than expected. Common knowledge dictates that this is bullish for Bitcoin.
But is it really?
The data says yes indeed, it is.
Below we can see the effects of a cooler CPI print compared to a hotter CPI print.
Over the next 2 weeks and at different milestones we can see that Bitcoin:
- Closes bullish more often
- Has better median returns
- Has higher highest price reaches
- Has more shallow drawdowns
For example, we can see that 3 days after a cooler CPI print, 65% of the time price was higher than where it started compared to 43% for a hotter print - 22% more.
W

$BTC
Selected the 10 most similar weeks of PA that also had a Monday Open dump.
- All 10 took out the weekly high later
- All 10 didn't have the low in yet either
- 9 out of 10 closed bullish
Early Monday moves often can't be trusted.

Gm all.
I came back yesterday from a 4-day kayaking & camping trap in Sweden.
No phone, no electricity; completely back to basics.
I can highly recommend everyone to go completely off-grid for a couple of days.
You don't realize the draining effect of being constantly on until you switch off for a couple of days.
It allows your mind to unwind and think things through, and realize we're not designed to be constantly on.
It's like doing an alcohol-detox when you are drinking too much: you don't have to do it for the rest of your life but it acts like a hard-reset so you learn how to moderate.

$BTC
Looking at what typically happens after a sweep of the previous low, we can determine logical targets for this move up.
What I did was select all previous times where the lowest point after a sweep was put in within the first 2.5 hours after the sweep.
Then I looked at where and when highs typically get put in for those events: 50% of similar events put in the weekly high at 61k.
If we look at the current high:
- 77% of pwLow sweeps (with a similar timed low) put in the high further above pwLow
- 86% of pwLow sweeps put in the highest point later
These statistics are for the 2 days after

$BTC
GM.
- 100% of weeks that close bullish put the weekly low in further below the open
- 87% of weeks that close bullish put in the weekly low later.
Weekly low is not in

$BTC
Today is Tuesday: over the last year, this has been the day that has closed bearish most often.