Prithvir

open source models feel like lewis carroll's red queen.
no matter how fast they run, they’re still running in place. moonshot's kimi 2.6 is a fantastic model. it would be the best in the world...
if only it had shipped in january.

i've given codex full access to all my documents and folders

the labor market is not ready for what codex is becoming
today i gave codex an api key and it:
> pulled 100k rows
> figured out the endpoints
> cleaned the data
> answered questions that would’ve taken a $250k data scientist 2-3 business days
> sanity checked it
it did this in 2-3 minutes
btw these were not simple sql queries
messy questions where it was unclear what formula to use, what data was missing, and how to iterate based on prior experience working directly with me
could see the unhobbling, CoT, and mechanistic interpretability all working in tandem
absolutely fantastic
2026 is incre

Anyone paying attention can tell that, within a year or two, Kalshi and Poly will generate more revenue from perps than from prediction markets

LLMs are changing who starts companies, but not in the way you think.
The obvious effect is people with less technical backgrounds can build software more easily.
The more interesting effect is they’re pulling in people who were kept out by opportunity cost.
Previously, my smart friends in banking, PE, hedge funds, and VC would have startup ideas, talk about them, maybe sketch them out, but rarely test them.
Now a surprising number have side projects with real users and revenue because the threshold to try something has fallen so much.
That seems like a much bigger deal than people realize

the spacex s-1 is the perfect rorschach test for bifurcating marxist eschatologists from techno-optimist accelerationists.

ai founders pivoting to crypto will raise the median iq of both cohorts.

How far are we from the first Butlerian Jihad?

if you follow the trend lines:
1. pure software co token spend surpasses employee spend by 2027
2. agency / services firms by 2028
3. SMB back offices by 2029
4. regulated enterprises by 2030
AGI labs generate $1T in annualized revenue by 2031

mallaby delivers again
the infinity machine is hard to put down
sounds banal but the single most important factor in any moonshot is talent density of the founding team
and building it is entropic, non-linear, artistic, scientific, and fortuitous

just talked to a friend who's a quant at one of the largest hedge funds in the world and he hadn't heard of perps
we are still very early

which of these claude tools do you actually use?

Has anyone built an Etherscan or Arkham style block explorer for LLM CoT reasoning traces?
Would do wonders for mechanistic interpretability