I had dinner parties for two consecutive days over the weekend, and I got myself quite tipsy. I slept all day yesterday, probably due to the market not doing well.
This afternoon, I carefully looked at the data in the office. Last week, stock markets around the world were mostly down, not just the US stock market and the cryptocurrency market. The cryptocurrency market, as a small category of risk assets, saw a relatively exaggerated decline. BTC fell from 10.4K to a low of around 92K, with a maximum drop of 7300 points in 24 hours, a decline of 7%. Based on the peak of 12.6K, the cumulative decline is 26%. ETH saw a maximum drop of over 12% in 24 hours, falling from its peak of 4900, with a maximum decline approaching 40%. This level of decline is basically second only to the major crash on October 11.
During the live broadcast, it was mentioned that the anticipation of a positive outlook from the United States has already run its course. Given the significant uncertainty surrounding a series of economic data after December, there is little momentum for a rebound in the short term, and the probability of continued fluctuations downward in search of a bottom range is relatively high. In recent days, there have been reports of a huge divergence in expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in December, with capital continuously flowing out of the ETF market. Market players are generally pessimistic about the future, and a repressive mindset envelops the entire cryptocurrency circle.
The current Fear and Greed Index has reached 10, which is the same as on February 27, 2025, and below 20 indicates extreme fear. This state has lasted nearly a month. If you say you are not afraid at this moment, it can only mean that you have no positions or are heavily shorting. As long as you have a significant amount of spot positions right now, you will more or less feel the fear. After all, watching your profits continuously decrease will definitely make you unhappy and fearful, which is a normal psychological reaction that everyone will have, including me.
The atmosphere in the market is heavily bearish, especially since the four-year cycle has ended and the market has not seen the big bull run that everyone expected. Previously, most altcoins experienced a bear market after the bull run at the beginning of '24, and from the end of '24 to the second quarter of '25, there was another bull run followed by a bear market. Most cryptocurrencies have seen a price drop of 60% to 70% compared to the beginning of '25. Currently, the bulls are being pressed down, and if there is another bull run followed by a bear market, it would be the third time; it is estimated that the crypto world may really be in trouble.
In the previous two bull market pullbacks, I knew that the real BTC bull market had not yet arrived, so I remained relatively calm. But this time, I admit that I am indeed feeling a bit anxious.
In previous posts and live broadcasts, I have honestly communicated with everyone that this anxiety does not stem from the withdrawal of profits from my account, but more from the differences in opinions between my own judgment and the KOLs I admire. However, after reflecting over the weekend, I have decided to stick to my views and maintain an optimistic outlook on the subsequent market trends, believing that BTC and ETH will continue to reach new all-time highs.
A few days ago during the live broadcast, I tried to analyze and compare the bullish views and bearish views currently in the market, making an effort to let my thought process escape historical patterns, trying not to be too rigid in my thinking. I aimed to analyze based on objective facts as much as possible, while also reminding myself not to always rely on past experiences to judge a constantly evolving market.
Currently, the voices of bearish sentiment in the market are indeed louder than those of bullish sentiment. However, if we think rationally, most of the reasoning for a bear market comes from the analysis of technical patterns and indicators. For example, BTC's daily support is being suppressed by the MA200, BTC has fallen below the 52-week moving average for the first time since 2022, BTC's monthly MACD has crossed to the downside, and BTC has officially broken the psychological barrier of 100,000, completing the Wyckoff distribution, etc...
If I hadn't done independent volume-price analysis and candlestick review myself, I would most likely agree with these judgments. However, as a long-time veteran, I also know that short-term daily technical indicators have little reference value in trading, with certainty probably around 50%.
At this critical moment of emotional low, I temporarily hold the view of waiting to maintain my position, as there is still some space shown by the pattern on the weekly chart, and the RSI has also shown low values. I can only say that the current K-line indicators are just auxiliary references; if the indicators were 100% accurate and useful, then there would be no losers in the world.
In last week's live broadcast, I also mentioned the analysis through candlestick charts and major events. I believe that the onset of the bear market in 2021 coincided with the macro interest rate hike cycle. The four-year cycle is not the most significant influencing factor; in previous cycles when the crypto market had a small market cap and many retail investors, the four-year cycle might have shown some patterns. However, the current crypto market has a scale of at least 40 trillion, and most of the chips have begun to concentrate in the hands of various institutions and large consortiums, making it difficult for retail investors to influence the overall market trend. I believe that in the future, the price trend of BTC will be increasingly closely linked to the macroeconomic cycle.
Speaking of the market again, during the live broadcast we analyzed that although the market will continue to decline and test the bottom, there will be two reversal opportunities. The first is that after officially opening, the funds in TGA's accounts will gradually flow back into the market. The second is the interest rate cut in December. At that time, it was analyzed that the probability of an interest rate cut in December might be speculated down due to data loss. Now, looking back, it is highly likely that this uncertainty led to the continued decline last week.
Looking back at the trends of the entire fourth quarter, the 1011 incident indeed dealt a heavy blow to everyone, with many players disappearing from the physical realm and the market's liquidity further drying up. Secondly, there aren't many positive news on the macroeconomic side either, so we predict that it will continue to decline in the short term and will slowly fluctuate until December.
I will not choose to sell the chips in my hand at this stage; instead, I will initiate a large position of 10% and slowly enter the market in batches within the range of BTC 88K-93K / ETH 2.6K-2.8K (the yellow area in the chart, which is the starting position for this round of new highs). The remaining 20% of the large position will remain untouched for now, and I do not plan to add to other altcoins, only using it to cope with the most extreme situations (the purple area in the chart, which is the previous high from 2021).
Of course, this is just my plan, not investment advice, nor am I encouraging you to be bullish on the market like me. Looking at the weekly chart, BTC has indeed risen for 3 years, so a 30% pullback wouldn’t be excessive. When it drops to a certain level and everyone feels the cost-performance ratio is very high, the buying power will be strong. Because this round of the bull market has seen the overall American institutions fully armed with funds entering the market, various ETFs, institutional DAT companies, and strategic reserves from various states in the U.S., so in my personal judgment, it is difficult to see a 60%-70% pullback like before in the short term.
Additionally, considering the average cost of my own position, I find it difficult to operate on short-term fluctuations. At this position, you sold out of fear; how much can you buy back later? What if it rebounds sharply from 92K? Or from 88K? If you are still waiting for 65K, 55K, or 45K, you might never get on the train.
The difficulty of trading in the future is likely to become increasingly challenging because we are up against Wall Street institutions, American quantitative companies, and other exceptionally intelligent people in the world. If your thinking dimensions are not evolving along with the market, and you are still looking at superficial candlestick indicators, still stuck in a cycle of following market sentiment for short-term gains and losses, it will be hard to achieve significant results.
Of course, if you want to look for escape positions, based on the current trend of the annual moving average MA52, there is a high probability that the psychological level of 100,000 will appear again. Even if you want to exit the market, it should be done during a market rebound, rather than selling at a loss during extreme panic. During this phase of market bottoming, I will continue to face the market directly, rather than choosing to ignore it as I did before. When there are suitable opportunities, I will also take small positions to engage in short-term low-leverage long positions, to the best of my ability to feel the changes in market atmosphere.
Finally, putting aside BTC to talk about altcoins, looking at the charts of many mainstream coins, for the next month, they are basically in a state of love and pain. The extreme fear in the market has driven most players to consider selling their chips, after all, it's understandable to feel heartbroken after three years of no returns. However, according to the historical trends of some mainstream coins we discussed during the livestream, there may be an ultimate drop in the next month or so, or there may be repeated torment that lowers your expectations. But when most people are despondent and caught off guard, the turning point in the market may suddenly appear at some point in time.
Because I always believe that the flow of funds in macroeconomic policy is likely to be positive.
#比特币行情观察 
