#巨鲸清仓HYPE获利1.32亿美元 How much further can HYPE go: An analysis of the whale liquidation event and target levels
The event itself: A profit-taking move that should not be overinterpreted
On-chain monitoring shows that a whale/institution built a position and staked 2.886 million HYPE at an average price of approximately $19.8 early last year, redeemed them in late July, and completed liquidation over the past month at an average price of approximately $64.9. It ultimately transferred the last 969,000 HYPE (approximately $79.18 million) to CoinbPrime and FalconX, pocketing $132 million in profit, for a 228% return. During the same period, wallets related to Multicoin Capital also transferred approximately 172,700 HYPE to Coinba.
Key judgment: This was normal profit-taking by an early investor and does not represent a change in fundamentals. An institution that held for nearly a year and earned 2.28x chose to realize its gains, which was more about "securing profits" than "exiting due to a bearish view." However, it does create selling pressure in the short term, and sentimentally it will be interpreted as "smart money retreating."
Factors supporting further HYPE strength
1. Buyback-and-burn mechanism implemented: Hyperliquid activated the AQAv2 token buyback-and-burn mechanism, reducing the circulating supply. Historically, such mechanisms have provided clear support for token prices. Platform buybacks in 2026 have reached $638 million.
2. Expansion into the US market: It plans to join forces with Payward, the parent company of Kra, to enter the US through licensed and compliant channels. This is a major narrative upgrade that opens up incremental compliant growth opportunities.
3. Institutions are still building positions: During the same period as the whale's selling, another major player bought $20.5 million worth of HYPE in a single day, prompting on-chain analysts to call it "smart money accumulating high-quality altcoins." Sellers and buyers coexisting shows that the divergence is not one-sided.
4. Solid platform fundamentals: Hyperliquid is the leader in decentralized derivatives. Its perpetual contracts and on-chain order book model generate real revenue, and the token has practical uses (gas, staking, and governance).
Risks that must be watched
1. $1.2 billion in token unlocks: Massive unlock pressure is expected around September, representing the largest potential source of selling pressure over the next few months. The market will need time to absorb it.
2. Whale long-short ratio is bearish: Whales on the Hyperliquid platform hold approximately $7.2 billion worth of positions, with a long-short ratio of 0.93. Shorts have a slight edge, making short-term trading more cautious.
3. Compounding inflation and unlocks: Some analyses point out that token supply is still increasing. Although buybacks are offsetting this, net pressure has not yet fully turned positive, and the second tranche of buyback funds will not be injected until early October.
4. Pullback risk after massive short-term gains: HYPE has been highly volatile since its launch, and large unlock periods are often accompanied by high volatility.
Target levels
The path given by institutional forecasts: approximately $85 (+5%) in 1 month, approximately $93 (+15%) in 3 months, and a year-end range of $81-115, with a baseline target of approximately $96 (+18%). In other words, assuming fundamentals remain unchanged, the market's mainstream expectation is for HYPE to reach $95-115 this year. A breakout would open up greater upside, while a break below around $81 would signal a period of range-bound consolidation.
Conclusion
The whale liquidation was "$132 million in profit-taking," not a "$132 million bearish signal." HYPE's medium-term logic (buyback and burn + US compliance + leadership in derivatives) remains unchanged, and while institutions were selling, other large players were also accumulating. HYPE will most likely trade in the $80-115 range this year, with its upside depending on whether the $1.2 billion unlock can be absorbed smoothly.
$HYPE
