SAWA

Have a great weekend. Today, from the IV perspective, let’s do a historical induction—while copying the boat as the water has already moved.
Reviewing the selloff that started on June 1: from late May to early June, it’s actually a three-act complete event: bottoming (5/25–26) → bounce (5/27) → breakdown and ignition (6/1)
At this moment, and in that moment.
If, over the next few days, DVOL holds off new lows, lifts step by step, and stands above ~37.5–38, while the price is still ranging or drifting lower, then it’s a moment that’s structurally identical to 6/1.

The hardest part about watching the Fed is not that you can’t understand it, but that there’s no causal chain—so you can only see dots, not the line.
1. Your trading is never about the interest rate itself, but about the difference in expectations.
Today’s price already incorporates the market’s consensus about the future, so a decision that fully matches expectations contains zero incremental information.
What moves the price is the direction and magnitude by which that consensus gets revised. That’s why markets can rise after a rate hike and fall when rates are left unchanged—none of it is c

The hardest part about understanding the Federal Reserve isn’t that you can’t follow the language—it’s that there’s no causal chain. So you can only see dots, not the line.
First: what you trade is never the interest rate itself, but the difference in expectations.
Today’s price already embeds the market’s consensus about the future. So a decision that fully matches expectations contains no incremental information.
What moves prices is the direction and magnitude by which consensus gets revised. That’s why when the Fed hikes, prices can rise—and when it doesn’t hike, prices can fall. It’s not

Today, a girl from Hefei messaged me.
This is the best summer of her life.
On the day Changxin went public, the hotel where she was staying was filled with celebration banquets.
Following her boyfriend’s advice—her boyfriend works at Changxin—she used all her savings to buy Changxin stock, earning what amounts to six years’ salary in a single day.
This year, her wages have kept rising. Using the Changxin shares her boyfriend held as collateral, he took out a 30-year mortgage to buy a large apartment nearby.
Today, as she walked around in Hefei, everyone on the street suddenly stopped

Today I came across a sentence that deeply moved me: “Savage beasts always go alone; noise doesn’t need a reply.”
I myself am a bit of an order-oriented type and highly sensitive. Even though I clearly understand that the world is a non-linear chaos system, and that getting what you want is luck while things not going your way is the norm, when I run into trash people and trash matters, negative energy can still disrupt my composure.
The good thing is that the positive feedback from trading is gradually building. Slowly, I’m realizing, “I’m not bad either.”
You should know that three years ago

BTC short positions were closed at the lowest point. During the weekend, it quietly bounced back up again—no matter how you look at it, this screams a bull trap. Next week, focus on two things:
1. Find a higher point and continue shorting BTC
2. Find a lower point and add to your gold long positions