SAWA

Woke up thinking gold had been stolen too
Turns out it really was

BTC still cannot break below the key VWAP of 79600; the suspense continues

Looking at BTC/XAU (Bitcoin priced in gold), I noticed a few interesting things
1. BTC hit a new high in USD terms last year, but not in gold terms
2. 1 BTC can now buy about 20 ounces of gold, versus nearly 40 at the previous cycle peak. Its purchasing power relative to gold is still about half of what it was then
3. This year's low was around 12—13, and it has recently recovered to 20. The moving average band below is also starting to turn upward, so BTC's relative performance against gold is indeed improving
4. But there's still a hurdle above: 20.6—21.1, where two moving averages are still

Would it be too much to call me a prophet on this one?

Some thoughts on the bottom for gold
1. Time cycle
The previous wave from 4891 to 3924 lasted 74 days; this wave from 4697 to now has lasted 57 days
Time cannot be forced, but it can serve as a reference—the bottom is getting closer
2. Price action
In the previous wave, there was a double bullish divergence on the daily chart (a left-side signal), followed by a breakout above the VWAP at the start of the decline (a right-side signal)
In this wave, although the decline has slowed, there is no clear divergence, and price has remained suppressed by the VWAP
That is why I have kept saying this is

Volatility keeps converging—don’t place heavy bets on the left side.
If you’re right, it’s luck; if you’re wrong, the entire universe will shimmer for you.

Nasdaq, gold, and BTC are all range-bound, with only crude oil showing a relatively clear direction
As shown, VAH + trendline + the round-number level of 100 form a triple confluence; if it breaks out, it would be bearish for everything—perhaps bullish for VIX
Waiting for the flames of war to flare up once again

The BTC short grid is closed; the live trading channel takes another bite👅
Make steady progress every day 🫡

How did I ever dare to bet so big before? Is a degenerate gambler’s nerve a nonrenewable resource?

Gold broke below the VWAP of the rally’s start and failed to reclaim it on the rebound. Wait for this 4H candle to close for confirmation; expecting a break below the previous low to form a second bullish divergence, with a target around 4030.