SAWA

“Rate-hike bull,” “Pullbacks are opportunities,” “This time is different”
Three phrases, three days, one bearish candle
Those shouting are still around, but their positions may not be
Once it drops back to 70K, the “teacher” will say again, “I told you long ago there would be a pullback”

The market is too optimistic, with everyone calling a rate-hike bull market
Those who are bearish have already been mocked as clowns
The point of maximum sentiment is never a good entry point
You think you're betting on direction, but you're actually choosing the odds

Texas poker bars are taking off; another one recently opened near my home. I played there for two days straight over the weekend and won the regular tournament championship both days. The prize was a fruit gift box. For 10u, you can sit there all night, and damn, the beer is unlimited. It’s over, I’m getting distracted by pleasure. I’m not going this week—focusing on trading.

Today's reflection: Fitness is like trading—the weight is too heavy, and your form breaks down.

【Sawa Market Analysis】8.31 US-Iran conflict flares up again—how to respond to volatility

0xSawa’s “8.28 Big Volatility Tonight | Watching Walsh’s Debut” livestream will begin on 2026-08-28 at 22:00. Don’t miss the highlights—click to set a reminder!

Last night, while playing a tournament, I folded AQs preflop
I was in the small blind, and someone opened and someone 3-bet preflop
My opponent seemed like a loose fish, so I figured the 3-bettor had at least a pocket pair
I folded AQs
Because I had invested only 0.5 BB and had no positional advantage
With some hands, if you haven't invested anything, you can just pretend they don't exist
The river came a Q, and the preflop 3-bettor showed 88 to win the pot
“If I had entered the pot, I would have won”
No No No, it doesn't matter—there are infinite opportunities.

Sun Ge’s story tells us
If a woman isn’t physically attracted to you, she’ll ask for 50 million
Zhang Jike’s legs are so thick—a single backhand twist makes someone shout, “Daddy”
You still have to learn from CZ—even with all that money, he still practices convict conditioning

Position management solves all emotional problems
First, your overall position should be light enough; second, build your position in batches
Splitting your position is essentially using a better cost basis to withstand volatility
Don’t want to miss out or take risks, and don’t want to sell too early or suffer a pullback
Why not get a job instead? There’s no volatility at work
You need to find your own balance between “greed” and “fear”