SAWA

How did I ever dare to bet so big before? Is a degenerate gambler’s nerve a nonrenewable resource?

Gold broke below the VWAP of the rally’s start and failed to reclaim it on the rebound. Wait for this 4H candle to close for confirmation; expecting a break below the previous low to form a second bullish divergence, with a target around 4030.

Last night, I spotted bullish divergence on gold’s lower time frame and decisively went long early, catching a small V-shaped reversal wave ^_^

$XAU Please choose your direction

Key things to watch: U.S. CPI at 8:30 tonight. If you’re not a professional macro analyst, you only need to look at 3 things
Transmission chain: CPI above/below expectations➡️rate hike probability higher/lower➡️interest rate expectations higher/lower➡️risk asset valuations higher/lower
1. The data itself: in line with/above/below expectations?
Corresponding to neutral/bearish/bullish for risk assets
2. Market reaction: DXY and US10Y (see attached chart)
Don’t just look at the data itself; also look at the market’s reaction. The most direct indicators are the U.S. Dollar Index DXY and 10-year U

Gold, viewed on the daily chart, is in a standard bearish trend. Let’s count the highs and lows:
H1 5602 & L1 4402
H2 5419 & L2 4099
H3 4891 & L3 3942
H4 4697 & L4 ？
The second and third groups both formed LH + LL. We are currently in the fourth group, having formed an LH but not yet an LL.
To form an LL, it would need to fall below 3942, with corresponding support around 3800.
Will it definitely form an LL? Not necessarily. But one thing is certain: this is not a place to take a heavy long position.
Therefore, my approach is to open a long grid strategy to harvest the range, which is equivale

Making some damn money is really hard. Yesterday I took two BTC long trades, made a small profit, and got out, dodging the dump. For now, this gold long grid strategy is bringing steady happiness 🥹

Positive nonfarm payrolls news, yet gold formed a reversal pattern; from the perspective of feedback in control theory, this is a case of good news failing to drive a rise, whose twin is bad news followed by a plunge.
The candlesticks also support this: the rebound high did not even reach the starting point of the decline, VWAP 4238. The overall decline is accelerating, and 4100 will most likely fail to hold. Later, look for opportunities to go long around 3800–4000.

Nasdaq retests its previous low, forming a double bottom—the bull market is coming.

Gold plunged after breaking below trendline support, with the first support at the tip of the previous wick at 4100 and the second support at the VWAP at 4024
We are not far from the bottom now, but the process is bound to be painful, as the consolidation in June–July makes clear
At the very least, wait for a bullish divergence on the 4H chart before the decline can stop; only after a right-side breakout above the falling VWAP can we turn bullish again

You still got on LD Capital? Li Hua has almost lost everything.😂