IgnasDefi

KAST decided not to do a TGE.
Eligible points will become 'KAST Pioneer Units' in December.
Basically, points they might pay out later, but don't have to.
No equity, no voting rights.
Unfortunate that tokens are becoming unattractive to crypto native teams.
Something like Backpack stake for equity model with revenue buybacks for token would've been sexy.
But I'll let them ship

There's a market demand for user-friendly, multi-chain multisig wallet.
Where you can use your Ledger/Trezor, phone or/and email, 2fa codes as signers.
Safe is amazing but only EVM.
It needs to support Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana and offer good connectivity experience to DeFi.
Who is building this?

We used to see "I am buying the dip here" posts on days like today.
Haven't seen a single post like this on X.
Despite claiming that 'BTC holding $̶8̶0̶k̶,̶ $̶7̶9̶k̶,̶ $̶7̶8̶k̶,̶ $77k is super bullish!'
I'd bet most of CT is loaded on tokens already.
Others would better buy higher on confirmation than buy the fear.
But fundamentally, who's buying?
Retail who generally loved crypto are now getting rekt on AI stocks, gold, quantum etc.
Crypto ETF buyers aren't showing up: inflows turned negative over the 30d period.
Short term there's $2B in short liquidations until $80k for BTC.
Longer term I'

My three asymmetric bets:
• $BP : Backpack as FTX 2.0 ... but without the fraud.
• $TRUE: The people's prediction market. DefiLlama integration + Vitalik praising its decentralized approach are good first steps.
!Super low cap.
• $FLUID : Lending and trading in one, with other apps building on top. Jupiter Lend+ Venus already use the tech. The bet is that more teams follow.
What are other I might've missed?

Base could bring back trenches with cleverly organized vampire attack on Robinhood Chain with $BASE airdrop/points or smthg.
Promise token to pump up tokenized stocks onchain.
They've got the app, got the infra, and got the talent
But that would require them to be based.

Biggest risk to BTC is someone figuring out how to transfer physical gold through borders undetected.

Only 3 groups of tokens outperformed BTC this year:
- Largest category - trading tokens: $DRV +665%, $HYPE +200%, $PUMP +121%, $RAY +106%
Degens gamble, protocols collect fees and buy back their tokens.
then....
- AI: $VVV +1431%, $NEAR +203%, $GRASS +151%
and...
- Privacy: $ZEC +137%, $XMR +37%
Maybe we can add institutional adoption story with $QNT +173% and $MORPHO +89%
Everything else pretty much rekt.
Still, I believe the easiest trade is finding high revenue tokens.

12 of the 16 recent TGEs are down since their first full trading day.
Median return: -27%.
Quite a few are DeFi projects:
• GRVT: perps, -29%
• QUID: cross chain swaps, -48%
• TMX: fixed rate lending, -96%
Note that public sale buyers had very different entry prices so:
• QUID: still up 24% from its public sale.
• FOLD: up 108% from its 2nd public auction, despite being down 19% after listing.
I want more good tokens to invest in.
But even after these dumps only 11% of GRVT and 14% of QUID max supply is circulating.
P.s. TGEs are from the past 3 months

If someone asked me for advice on getting into crypto, I'd tell them to stay away from CT, TikTok and YouTube crypto content.
better get paid subs to ChatGPT and Claude to learn the basics and think through a strategy.
A noob joining CT will (!!) end up rekt by Pump. fun/FOMO cabal.
They WILL lose money on bundled tokens promoted by KOLs who use their followers as exit liquidity.
There's little to learn from CT now.
One needed CT as crypto was technical and entry barriers were high: how to unstuck tx on Metamask by changing nonce or how to bridge and get gas tokens etc.
Entry barriers are GONE

BTC would be at $100k already if bitcoiners were better story tellers as in the past:
International order disintegrating, countries going bankrupt, social unrest worsening, privacy eroding, private property might be up for grabs when/if things get even worse...
BTC is a perfect asset for this period yet somehow bitcoiners fail to promote it
Perhaps Tradfi boomers will end up pushing this story with blackrock leading the charge.