IgnasDeFi

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Crypto PTSD tells me $SPCX will end up as crypto hyped low-float/high-FDV token launches.
Tradfi is at the 'High-FDV is a meme' stage crypto was 2 years ago.
But $SPCS can't do 10x at current valuations, especially as unlocks start. Meaning all upside to IPO was taken by insiders. Retail is exit liquidity.
Exactly, the set up that Cobie criticized within crypto high-FDV launches.
Crypto's mission is to fix this by giving access to retail at lower valuations.
But pre-IPOs aren't it. Anyone who bought the pre-ipo perps at 1x-like leverage are underwater. At least we can easily short it.
Worse, P
SPCX22.16%
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So, what's the current bull case narrative for $BTC?
BTC0.35%
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Remember the ETH unstaking queue FUD?
Today the exit queue is at zero.
The entry queue has 3M ETH (~$5B) with a 52 day wait.
The main reasons seem to be:
- BitMine. The largest ETH staker now with 4M+ ETH staked, and they keep adding as they buy.
- Grayscale moves ETH to Coinbase Prime for staking, BlackRock's new staking ETF ETHB stakes up to 95% of its holdings. Five more ETF issuers waiting for approval
- Post-Pectra validator consolidations inflate the numbers a bit too
Pls share the exact entities, as the data isn't clear since deposits aren’t all public entities.
But the visible names ar
ETH2.45%
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Good news: equities, gold are dumping too today.
Bad news: it can last for months like this.
XAU-0.12%
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Are you buying the dip here?
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Ethereum to Microsoft comparison is sexy, but what if it is actually Linux.
ETH2.45%
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Note to whoever asks in 2028, when BTC is back at $40k: yes, this was the worst crypto sentiment ever.
Worse than 2018 or Covid.
DAT ponzis are collapsing, AI is exploiting crypto assets, and AI macro stocks are pumping at the same time.
Our normie friends and Reddit traders are getting rich while we get rekt.
BTC0.35%
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All roads lead back to BTC.
The Mythos launch will be peak FUD for crypto, and the more complex the asset, the more that can go wrong.
$ZEC is great for privacy, but the bigger complexity surface adds risk.
$SUI just went down for hours, and DeFi founders probably don't sleep well either.
Are there bugs in Ethereum code we don't know about?
BTC is simple and it has survived every cycle, which makes it the hedge.
Saylor FUD timing is terrible but that's the least of our worries.
BTC0.35%
ZEC6.90%
SUI-2.36%
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Crypto sentiment is so bad that the only silver lining I see is BTC & ETH holders rotating into other tokens.
Billions in USD rotating into mid-caps would create 100x opportunities.
No new capital enters crypto, but some rags-to-riches stories can be written.
BTC0.35%
ETH2.45%
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The Arbitrum Foundation is asking the DAO for ~$43.5M to fund another year of operations.
- $16M in RWAs/stablecoins
- 1,740 ETH (~$3.5M)
- and 230M $ARB (~$24M).
230M ARB is ~3.7% of total supply. For a year.
Meanwhile the DAO made $23.49M in revenue in 2025.
So the Foundation is operating at 2.3x DAO revenue.
ARB-0.98%
ETH2.45%
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Privacy conscious & worried about Saylor bitcoiners rotate to zcash:native
Disillusioned Ethereans dump $ETH for $HYPE
And $SOL hodlers?
They are the new Ethereans.
ZEC6.90%
ETH2.45%
HYPE10.49%
SOL3.55%
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***9623851:
pump
Alts can still pump despite bearish market and lack of new inflows.
But this comes at the expense of outflows from BTC and ETH.
As more crypto natives get disillusioned with ETH and sell it, like Bankless's David Hoffman, they rotate to alts with revenue or PMF narratives behind them.
The beauty is that selling $1m of $ETH and buying $1m of $ZEC or $NEAR has disproportionate price impact.
Small cap, big move. I think this is what has been happening in crypto recently.
And if select alts create new rags to riches stories, that brings attention back to crypto.
Which could attract new capital
BTC0.35%
ETH2.45%
ZEC6.90%
ALT-2.98%
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What's the reason onchain options never picked up?
Too complex for crypto degens?
Memecoin/altcoin volatility more exciting, with better ROI potential?
Years ago, I wrote a blog post about options booming. I was wrong.
The Reddit crowd still loves options, but not the crypto degens.
MEME-2.93%
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BTC pumping used to bring retail FOMO to crypto.
Money entered and alts pumped.
But now everyone knows about BTC. They also know crypto underperformed equities for a while.
So this time around, select altcoins making rags to riches stories beyond crypto circles could bring retail back.
Just the current pumps are still too small to create the necessary noise.
So still early in this cycle but the upside potential is giving me tingly feeling.
BTC0.35%
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Beautiful to see CT consensus on a few tokens that lasts longer than a few days.
During the last bull run, money and attention spread thin across multiple memecoins and new TGEs.
Every fresh launch stole focus from older established tokens.
It also helps that many crypto KOLs went silent.
Their daily shilling of new tokens kept attention scattered.
Now the noise is largely gone and money flows into a few assets at a time so strong narratives can finally form.
That's a good thing of bear markets... a healing period where we collectively find out what criteria matter for a token.
For $HYPE it's
HYPE10.49%
ZEC6.90%
VVV-6.23%
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Railgun’s $RAIL isn’t listed on any CEX:
- Price discovery happens purely onchain
- Relative to MC, mindshare on X, and the recent integration to Ethereum L1, trading volumes are very low (~$3M USD).
CEXs probably worry about compliance.
That’s why it’s amazing crypto managed to build decentralized protocols like Uniswap, where we can access all assets.
P.S. Does using Railgun flag your wallets in Chainalysis Source of Wealth/Proof of Funds reports?
ETH2.45%
UNI10.85%
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Used and farmed Stacks ecosystem airdrops for months.
Finally, my first airdrop allocation dropped.
$4 USD in $ZEST.
The other $36 are vested for 6 months.
STX-2.07%
ZEST0.26%
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Where to find crypto 'alpha' in the AI age?
We used to read whitepapers, forums, but now LLMs aggregate CT in real time and we consume same 'consensus trades' takes.
I think our human edge will stay where AIs can't 'enter':
- Opening new apps yourself and forming opinions from actually using the product. Get a degen wallet, try stuff that's trending on CT or your friends recommend. Have your opinion on it.
- Talk to builders. I love builders who tweet their progress and thoughts. DMs to devs are hard if you don't have many followers, but don’t be afraid to try your luck with genuine feedback o
ALT-2.98%
HYPE10.49%
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Where to find crypto 'alpha' in the AI age?
We used to read whitepapers, forums, but now LLMs aggregate CT in real time and we consume same 'consensus trades' takes.
I think our human edge will stay where AIs can't 'enter':
- Opening new apps yourself and forming opinions from actually using the product. Get a degen wallet, try stuff that's trending on CT or your friends recommend. Have your opinion on it.
- Talk to builders. I love builders who tweet their progress and thoughts. DMs to devs can feel hard, but don’t be afraid to try your luck with genuine feedback or questions.
- Read the sour
ALT-2.98%
HYPE10.49%
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