IgnasDeFi

Good news: equities, gold are dumping too today.
Bad news: it can last for months like this.

Are you buying the dip here?

Ethereum to Microsoft comparison is sexy, but what if it is actually Linux.

Note to whoever asks in 2028, when BTC is back at $40k: yes, this was the worst crypto sentiment ever.
Worse than 2018 or Covid.
DAT ponzis are collapsing, AI is exploiting crypto assets, and AI macro stocks are pumping at the same time.
Our normie friends and Reddit traders are getting rich while we get rekt.

All roads lead back to BTC.
The Mythos launch will be peak FUD for crypto, and the more complex the asset, the more that can go wrong.
$ZEC is great for privacy, but the bigger complexity surface adds risk.
$SUI just went down for hours, and DeFi founders probably don't sleep well either.
Are there bugs in Ethereum code we don't know about?
BTC is simple and it has survived every cycle, which makes it the hedge.
Saylor FUD timing is terrible but that's the least of our worries.

Crypto sentiment is so bad that the only silver lining I see is BTC & ETH holders rotating into other tokens.
Billions in USD rotating into mid-caps would create 100x opportunities.
No new capital enters crypto, but some rags-to-riches stories can be written.

Privacy conscious & worried about Saylor bitcoiners rotate to zcash:native
Disillusioned Ethereans dump $ETH for $HYPE
And $SOL hodlers?
They are the new Ethereans.

Alts can still pump despite bearish market and lack of new inflows.
But this comes at the expense of outflows from BTC and ETH.
As more crypto natives get disillusioned with ETH and sell it, like Bankless's David Hoffman, they rotate to alts with revenue or PMF narratives behind them.
The beauty is that selling $1m of $ETH and buying $1m of $ZEC or $NEAR has disproportionate price impact.
Small cap, big move. I think this is what has been happening in crypto recently.
And if select alts create new rags to riches stories, that brings attention back to crypto.
Which could attract new capital

BTC pumping used to bring retail FOMO to crypto.
Money entered and alts pumped.
But now everyone knows about BTC. They also know crypto underperformed equities for a while.
So this time around, select altcoins making rags to riches stories beyond crypto circles could bring retail back.
Just the current pumps are still too small to create the necessary noise.
So still early in this cycle but the upside potential is giving me tingly feeling.

Beautiful to see CT consensus on a few tokens that lasts longer than a few days.
During the last bull run, money and attention spread thin across multiple memecoins and new TGEs.
Every fresh launch stole focus from older established tokens.
It also helps that many crypto KOLs went silent.
Their daily shilling of new tokens kept attention scattered.
Now the noise is largely gone and money flows into a few assets at a time so strong narratives can finally form.
That's a good thing of bear markets... a healing period where we collectively find out what criteria matter for a token.
For $HYPE it's

Used and farmed Stacks ecosystem airdrops for months.
Finally, my first airdrop allocation dropped.
$4 USD in $ZEST.
The other $36 are vested for 6 months.

Where to find crypto 'alpha' in the AI age?
We used to read whitepapers, forums, but now LLMs aggregate CT in real time and we consume same 'consensus trades' takes.
I think our human edge will stay where AIs can't 'enter':
- Opening new apps yourself and forming opinions from actually using the product. Get a degen wallet, try stuff that's trending on CT or your friends recommend. Have your opinion on it.
- Talk to builders. I love builders who tweet their progress and thoughts. DMs to devs are hard if you don't have many followers, but don’t be afraid to try your luck with genuine feedback o

Where to find crypto 'alpha' in the AI age?
We used to read whitepapers, forums, but now LLMs aggregate CT in real time and we consume same 'consensus trades' takes.
I think our human edge will stay where AIs can't 'enter':
- Opening new apps yourself and forming opinions from actually using the product. Get a degen wallet, try stuff that's trending on CT or your friends recommend. Have your opinion on it.
- Talk to builders. I love builders who tweet their progress and thoughts. DMs to devs can feel hard, but don’t be afraid to try your luck with genuine feedback or questions.
- Read the sour

From trading pre-TGE tokens to pre-IPO tokens, crypto really found a massive PMF.
- Institutional capital could deploy
- Democratizes access for retail
- Brings tx, fees, TVL onchain
Even more bullish where pre-IPO onchain assets LEAD price discovery.
Hyperliquid