GreatNews

#每周来晒 #U.S. October CPI Is Coming

Anyone who trades knows CPI itself doesn't directly determine the Fed's decision, but it does determine which way the market's pricing for a December rate hike moves from 77%. After nonfarm payrolls came in at 165,000, CME FedWatch had already pushed the probability of a December hike to around 77%, while LSEG put it as high as 81%. In other words, the employment data has largely locked in the direction of whether the Fed hikes; CPI's job is to answer, “Will they hike again after this one?”

For BTC, historical data is worth considering, but don't put too muc

South Korea’s stock market has fallen for three consecutive trading days. I think this is not just about the Korean market itself, but also the performance of AI tech stocks.

South Korea’s stock market is highly dependent on the semiconductor and AI industry chains. As tech heavyweights remain under pressure, this also reflects a decline in market risk appetite for the tech sector.

AI tech stocks accumulated substantial gains in the earlier rally, and now investors are starting to reassess valuations, making the related industry chains vulnerable to the impact.

This will also affect BTC. Af

Actually, I think the biggest problem most people have when trading crypto is a lack of independent judgment.

What does that mean?

Put simply, you have no idea what stage the market is in right now.

Is the market in an uptrend or a downtrend? Is overall risk appetite rising or falling? Is capital continuing to flow in, or steadily moving out?

Without understanding any of this, you start fixating on whether the coins you hold are going up or down.

When the market rises, you think a bull market is here; when it falls, you think a bear market is coming.

You see others making money going lon

Tesla fell about 10% on Thursday, with its share price around $346, down 29% from its record high in December 2025. At first glance, that looks like a steep drop, but a look through the income statement reveals an uncomfortable fact: the stock has fallen less than profits.

Operating profit fell from a peak of $13.7 billion in 2022 to $8.9 billion in 2023, $7.1 billion in 2024, and $4.4 billion in 2025. Over the past four quarters, it totaled just about $3.5 billion—roughly a quarter of its 2022 peak. Operating margin contracted from 17% to 4.6% in 2025, then fell further to 2.6% in Q3 this ye

The Nasdaq fell 5.5%, but the divergence within it was actually far more severe than the index decline: AMD fell 17%, Nvidia fell 9%, while Microsoft and Meta declined much less than the chip supply chain. This structure shows that the market is not indiscriminately selling “tech”; it is precisely avoiding the “earnings vulnerability of the AI hardware chain.”

The problem with chip stocks is that they are the purest proxy for AI capital expenditure. Once the narrative of slowing data center construction takes hold, revenue expectations will be revised down even faster than share prices. The P

Are you the same too?
Yesterday: a raging bull market
Today: play a 🐔 and hurry up and go to zero ​​​
#每周来晒

#Gate Stock Talk Season

The more I review Nvidia’s valuation data, the more strongly I feel that the market may still be pricing it based on the inertia of “expensive,” while the numbers tell a different story.

As of early November, NVDA had a market cap of about $4.84 trillion, a TTM P/E just above 25x, a forward P/E of only 16.5x, and a PEG of 0.34. More interestingly, after the recent selloff, its forward P/E was briefly pushed down to 12.9x, below the S&P 500’s 18.7x. A company whose quarterly earnings grew 125.9% year over year and whose ROE reached 117% is valued below the broader mark

#Gate launches Taiwan stock trading

Among the 19 Taiwan-listed stocks launched on Gate, if I could choose just one to “buy and not have to watch the market every day,” I’d pick TSMC.

Not because its story is exciting—in fact, it’s precisely because the story is so unexciting. In Q3 2026, TSMC’s gross margin was 66.4%, advanced nodes at 7nm and below accounted for 79% of wafer revenue, and 2nm contributed 8% of wafer revenue in its first quarter. The HPC platform generated $31.77 billion in revenue, accounting for 68% of the total, up 22% quarter over quarter. AI is the only main growth engin

Actually, many people have a habit:

Once they decide on a direction, they can’t wait to enter immediately, afraid they’ll miss the move.

When the market rises, they fear being left behind and rush to chase it; when it falls, they fear missing a shorting opportunity and hurry to open a position.

They overlook one thing:

Judging the direction is one thing; choosing an entry point is another.

I’ve always felt that the greatest value of placing limit orders in trading isn’t guaranteeing execution, but having the ability to choose proactively.

You can plan your entry point, stop-loss range, a

The Fed left interest rates unchanged, but my read of the press conference that followed was hawkish. The press conference itself was not as hawkish as initially feared. To be precise, the Fed paused rate hikes but did not signal a clear shift toward easing.

First, its descriptions of the economy and inflation were hawkish. The Fed described economic activity as expanding at a solid pace while explicitly stating that inflation remains elevated. This essentially means there is not yet sufficient reason to clearly shift toward easing.

The decision passed 10-2, with two committee members favori

Tonight's Fed decision: the market broadly expects rates to remain unchanged in October, but that doesn't mean monetary policy has turned dovish. There are two key things to watch tonight.

First, watch whether Warsh signals a more cautious policy stance. Inflationary pressures remain, and if the Fed indicates that rates need to stay high for longer, the dollar and Treasury yields could support a rebound, putting pressure on BTC.

Second, watch whether expectations for a December rate cut continue to cool. The market had been expecting a rate cut, but if the Fed's post-meeting stance proves le

Large token unlocks this week: Check if you hold any

SIGN will unlock tokens worth approximately $4.33 million on October 28, accounting for 12.63% of the circulating supply;

FF will unlock tokens worth approximately $20.74 million on October 29, accounting for 8.62% of the circulating supply;

CARDS will unlock tokens worth approximately $17.76 million on October 29, accounting for 9.60% of the circulating supply;

KMNO will unlock tokens worth approximately $9.8 million on October 30, accounting for 2.73% of the circulating supply;

SUI will unlock tokens worth approximately $12.11 million

Ten years later, you quietly walk out of your seven-story little villa and get into the Rolls-Royce you usually refuse to ride. You pick up your iPhone 26. The mistress on the other end has just thanked you for the limited-edition LV bag you bought her a few days ago, and the company is asking you to sign another contract. You’re exhausted. Watching your secretary’s head bob between your legs, you let out a long sigh, thinking back on how you achieved all this: simply because you bought BTC ten years ago and held firm when everyone else was panic-selling. #每周来晒

#每周来晒 #U.S. Earnings Season

The discussion raised three questions. The first two (which company is most promising, and whether AI investment can continue to grow) have already been debated extensively. But the third question—“Will a stock necessarily rise if earnings beat expectations?”—got an almost textbook answer this earnings season: not necessarily. And the reasons why matter much more than the conclusion itself.

Meta and Tesla offer two cases with opposite outcomes but the same underlying logic. Meta: “beat expectations, but fell.” Revenue, EPS, and Q4 guidance all beat expectations, b

Key macro focus this week:

First, earnings reports from U.S. tech giants.

Companies including Meta, Tesla, and IBM will report earnings this week, while the semiconductor and memory sectors are also entering their earnings season.

The Nasdaq saw a notable pullback last week, and the market is reassessing the relationship between inflationary pressures and economic growth.

Second, U.S. PMI and consumer confidence data.

The preliminary U.S. manufacturing and services PMIs released Friday, as well as the University of Michigan consumer confidence data, are worth close attention.

If economic

Bitcoin short-term holders’ holdings continue to increase. In my view, this isn’t necessarily a positive signal.

My understanding is that more and more coins are concentrated in the hands of short-term holders, suggesting that most people in the current market are more inclined to trade in the short term than to hold for the long term. Of course, holdings data alone isn’t enough to conclude that people have given up on long-term dollar-cost averaging.

But while short-term holders’ holdings are increasing, BTC’s price still can’t break through resistance above. This suggests that the new supp

At 11:30 a.m. Beijing time on October 16, Warsh held a fireside chat with Georgieva at the IMF Annual Meetings in Bangkok. This was the last public statement before the October 27-28 policy meeting quiet period. From today until the FOMC meeting, Fed officials will all remain silent—the market can only use “today’s speech” to price in October over the next two weeks.

My three adjustments:

First, reduce exposure to the October meeting. The market’s implied probability of an October rate hike has fallen from nearly 40% after the CPI release to below 15%. Rather than bet on the outcome, it’s be