The Nasdaq fell 5.5%, but the divergence within it was actually far more severe than the index decline: AMD fell 17%, Nvidia fell 9%, while Microsoft and Meta declined much less than the chip supply chain. This structure shows that the market is not indiscriminately selling “tech”; it is precisely avoiding the “earnings vulnerability of the AI hardware chain.”

The problem with chip stocks is that they are the purest proxy for AI capital expenditure. Once the narrative of slowing data center construction takes hold, revenue expectations will be revised down even faster than share prices. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index’s 12% single-day drop reflects this high-beta characteristic.

Tech giants are different. They will of course fall too, but Microsoft, Google, and Amazon have cloud business cash flows to support them. Even if AI commercialization is slower than expected, it is unlikely to threaten their very survival. Morgan Stanley GIC’s tactical advice on the day of the plunge also speaks volumes: favor U.S. large-cap “quality” stocks, emphasize quality on both the growth and value sides, and hedge with core fixed income and real assets. Chip stocks are a bet on when the cycle will turn; tech giants can ride out the downturn on cash flow and market share. If I could choose only one side, at this stage of such low policy visibility, I would lean toward the latter.

#每周来晒 #美股史诗级抛售