#Gate股票观点挑战 +$SPCX
Everyone focused on the lock-ups in $SPCX. But the real story is not the lock-ups, it's who bought them.
On August 6, 911.5 million shares were unlocked, on August 20, 319 million shares were unlocked. The stock did not fall, it rose 6.1%.
This is a very rare signal in the market: A supply shock happened and buyers won.
I. 3 Real Buy Signals The Market Missed
1. This was not distribution, it was a handover: The fear was that early investors would exit. What happened was different - a transfer from weak hands to strong hands. $100 billion of supply was absorbed in one day. This shows huge institutional demand was waiting. Shorts were forced to cover.
2. SPCX is no longer a rocket company, it is an AI + subscription company: Most people still think of SpaceX as a rocket launch company. The Q2 report ended that thesis:
• Starlink: $4.29 billion revenue, 79% operating profit growth, 12 million subscribers. This is SpaceX's cash machine. A space subscription model that works like Netflix. • xAI: $2.56 billion revenue, 247% YoY growth. This growth rate is even faster than Nvidia's best period.
With total revenue of $7.81 billion, SPCX delivered the first concrete data justifying its IPO price.
3. $135 will no longer be resistance, it will be support: Dropping below the $135 IPO price was a bear trap. Reclaiming that level was seen as a second chance for large funds that missed the IPO. Technically, $135-$140 is now the new base.
II. Why $150 Is Just A Stop?
The bearish $150 resistance thesis is based on old data. The new picture is this:
1. Lock-up fear is exaggerated: Yes, there are bigger unlocks in December 2026 and June 2027. But the biggest fear - the first and most uncertain wave of 911 million shares - is over. The market now knows the mechanism: 9 stages, controlled, spread over time. Elon Musk's 6.4 billion shares are locked until 2027, which shows the biggest seller is not in the market.
2. AI spending is not a cost, it is a moat: High CAPEX in Q2 was criticized. But this spending is for Starlink V3 satellites and space-based data centers. An infrastructure is being built that no one on Earth can build. It burns cash in the short term, makes it unbeatable in the long term. That is why Deutsche Bank and BofA have targets of $235-$300.
3. The next catalysts favor buyers, not sellers: Starship Flight 11, Direct-to-Cell deals that will increase Starlink's ARPU again, and xAI's new model announcements. Each one is enough catalyst to break $150.
III. My Scenario: Not Range, But Accumulation
Goldman and JPMorgan expect consolidation in the $130-$150 range. I think differently.
This is not consolidation, it is an accumulation phase. The $114-$145 range is where whales are accumulating.
Short term (4-6 weeks): $150 will be tested, rejected on the first attempt, this is normal. This rejection will not be a crash, but the last shakeout before December unlocks.
Mid term (Q4 2026): If AI revenue exceeds $3 billion in Q3, $150 breaks and $150 turns from old resistance to new support. Then the level we will talk about will be $180.
Lock-ups are not suppressing the price, they are making the price cheaper and giving smart money a buying opportunity.
In short: We watched a market where fear sells and data buys. $150 is not a ceiling, it is the launch pad for the next rocket.
Everyone focused on the lock-ups in $SPCX. But the real story is not the lock-ups, it's who bought them.
On August 6, 911.5 million shares were unlocked, on August 20, 319 million shares were unlocked. The stock did not fall, it rose 6.1%.
This is a very rare signal in the market: A supply shock happened and buyers won.
I. 3 Real Buy Signals The Market Missed
1. This was not distribution, it was a handover: The fear was that early investors would exit. What happened was different - a transfer from weak hands to strong hands. $100 billion of supply was absorbed in one day. This shows huge institutional demand was waiting. Shorts were forced to cover.
2. SPCX is no longer a rocket company, it is an AI + subscription company: Most people still think of SpaceX as a rocket launch company. The Q2 report ended that thesis:
• Starlink: $4.29 billion revenue, 79% operating profit growth, 12 million subscribers. This is SpaceX's cash machine. A space subscription model that works like Netflix. • xAI: $2.56 billion revenue, 247% YoY growth. This growth rate is even faster than Nvidia's best period.
With total revenue of $7.81 billion, SPCX delivered the first concrete data justifying its IPO price.
3. $135 will no longer be resistance, it will be support: Dropping below the $135 IPO price was a bear trap. Reclaiming that level was seen as a second chance for large funds that missed the IPO. Technically, $135-$140 is now the new base.
II. Why $150 Is Just A Stop?
The bearish $150 resistance thesis is based on old data. The new picture is this:
1. Lock-up fear is exaggerated: Yes, there are bigger unlocks in December 2026 and June 2027. But the biggest fear - the first and most uncertain wave of 911 million shares - is over. The market now knows the mechanism: 9 stages, controlled, spread over time. Elon Musk's 6.4 billion shares are locked until 2027, which shows the biggest seller is not in the market.
2. AI spending is not a cost, it is a moat: High CAPEX in Q2 was criticized. But this spending is for Starlink V3 satellites and space-based data centers. An infrastructure is being built that no one on Earth can build. It burns cash in the short term, makes it unbeatable in the long term. That is why Deutsche Bank and BofA have targets of $235-$300.
3. The next catalysts favor buyers, not sellers: Starship Flight 11, Direct-to-Cell deals that will increase Starlink's ARPU again, and xAI's new model announcements. Each one is enough catalyst to break $150.
III. My Scenario: Not Range, But Accumulation
Goldman and JPMorgan expect consolidation in the $130-$150 range. I think differently.
This is not consolidation, it is an accumulation phase. The $114-$145 range is where whales are accumulating.
Short term (4-6 weeks): $150 will be tested, rejected on the first attempt, this is normal. This rejection will not be a crash, but the last shakeout before December unlocks.
Mid term (Q4 2026): If AI revenue exceeds $3 billion in Q3, $150 breaks and $150 turns from old resistance to new support. Then the level we will talk about will be $180.
Lock-ups are not suppressing the price, they are making the price cheaper and giving smart money a buying opportunity.
In short: We watched a market where fear sells and data buys. $150 is not a ceiling, it is the launch pad for the next rocket.
