#美联储3月利率决议 Outlook | "Trump Recession" Triggers Panic, Will the Fed Chairman Clearly Signal Rate Cuts Tomorrow Morning?


The Paper
2025-03-19 18:05 The official account of The Paper
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As the panic triggered by the "Trump recession" approaches, the Federal Reserve's March meeting on interest rates is imminent.
On March 20, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve will announce the monetary policy decision for March. This meeting will also simultaneously release the latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and the dot plot.
Two important data points concerning the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut—non-farm employment and CPI—fluctuated last month. According to data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the non-farm payrolls in the U.S. increased by 151,000 in February, slightly below market expectations; the unemployment rate was 4.1%, compared to the previous value of 4%; the CPI in February rose by 2.8% year-on-year, lower than the market expectation of 2.9% and the previous value of 3%; the core CPI increased by 3.1% year-on-year, lower than the market expectation of 3.2% and the previous value of 3.3%.
Since March, the "Trump recession" has created a stir in the world. On March 14 local time, the University of Michigan released the consumer confidence index for March at 57.9%, marking a new low in two and a half years; the inflation expectation for the next year surged to 4.9%, the highest level since November 2022.
From the market expectations, as of the time of writing, data from the CME Group indicates that the market expects a 99% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep the current interest rate unchanged in March, and a 1% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut. On March 7, local time, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the Fed does not need to rush to adjust its policies.