"Is $100,000 BTC the end or the beginning? Where are we now? Where will we be in the future?"

In recent months, BTC has been fluctuating around $100,000, and has even dropped below $90,000. Some people suspect that the bull market has ended, but it's time to recharge some faith.

I tend to think this is the last drop now.

Witness the true believers at dusk.

BTC reaching $100,000 is a certainty and a starting point. I have always believed that BTC is a risk-free asset with stable returns, but BTC will not stop there. Traditional financial capital will not lack such vision.

At this point, we need to know where we are now and where we will be in the future.

Extending the time dimension, here we review 2024 and look ahead to 2025, so that we can see the market trends clearly.

How to view the rapid rise of Bitcoin in 2024?

This rapid rise in BTC is a combination of many factors stacking up:

The most direct factor is the entry of ETFs and traditional funds;

Indirect factors are the current Fed rate cut path, and the improvement of liquidity in the capital market;

Forward-looking factors are policy expectations, expectations for Trump's future policies;

Finally, there is also the impact of BTC's own cycle, with the production halving in April 2024, and the incremental speed has already been lower than gold.

In short, in 2024, it can be said that the timing, geographical and human advantages have been gathered, not only driven by the external macro environment, but also superimposed with the inherent driving force of the industry itself.

2. How to view the future price trend of Bitcoin?

The ultimate price of BTC is very vague and cannot guide investment, so do not guess the ultimate price. Many institutions predict that BTC will reach $500,000 or $1,000,000 in the future, which is worthless.

Therefore, we need to focus on the short to medium term, that is, the price trend in the next one to two years.

To answer this question, it is first necessary to clarify the current stage of the market: we have now entered the second half of a bull market.

In September 2024, when BTC was over 70,000, everyone was still doubting whether it was really entering a bull market, but no one doubted when it reached 100,000.

According to the cycle theory, the entire industry is currently in the middle of a bull market, so there is no need to panic about the subsequent pullback after the market sentiment reaches extreme greed, the main uptrend will still come.

For example, in March 2024, the market remained greedy for more than a month before and after, and finally the BTC price reached a phase high of about $73,000, after which the callback started, and the callback and consolidation lasted for more than half a year.

If the rise from 16,000 in January 2023 to 72,000 in March 2024 is the first wave of the main uptrend, the market entered the second half of the bull market after a long mid-term rest, starting from September 2024, and entered the big cycle of the second wave of the main uptrend.

In this wave of primary uptrend, the price of BTC may experience a brief decline or continue to move sideways for several months, but the overall trend is still upward, and this upward cycle will also last for about a year.

Bull markets are conceived in pessimism, born in despair, grow in doubt, mature in optimism, and die in euphoria.

Do not doubt, welcome to the second half of the bull market.

However, whether there will be a third wave in the future, where the BTC price will go after breaking through 100,000, no one knows, and no one can guess the top.

I can only say that after the price of BTC broke through 100,000, the ceiling opened up, and the market in 2025 is worth looking forward to.

Don't guess the top, no one can guess the top. The key is to look at everyone's own psychological expectations and profit expectations, for example, the average cost is 20,000, then 100,000 is already 5 times.

We only look at cycles and trends. This cycle started early, and the historical high of BTC may appear in the summer of 2025, expected to be around $150,000.

3. Is there a chance for the BTC ecosystem?

From a macro point of view, where does the liquidity of the industry come from? In fact, it is the old money of traditional financial institutions such as ETFs and RWAs.

The crypto industry has a multi-level liquidity pool effect: BTC first absorbs external liquidity, which was originally continued to be absorbed by ETH, but this time is different, BTC has its own ecosystem, so BTCFi has a great opportunity to absorb the overflow liquidity of BTC.

The direction of the BTC ecosystem is mainly to release the liquidity of BTC, and the key issue that needs to be addressed is: how to safely cross-chain BTC? Or, without cross-chain, map it to other chains through lock-up.

BTC is the asset with the strongest consensus and the highest security, and it is worth building a financial system around BTC.

Next, we need to think about the question: where is BTCFi built?

One layer issues assets, and the second layer builds applications, so there is still a chance for BTC Layer2.

BTC Layer2 three technical solutions: state channels, sidechains, Rollup.

Among them, the most orthodox Layer 2 is the Lightning Network, which superimposes the ability of Taproot Assets, which is very suitable for issuing stablecoins and has payment scenarios.

Wanchain: Taking Ethereum as a reference, solving the problem of liquidity fragmentation across multiple chains in advance.

Which one can run out in the end?

In addition to technological innovation, good projects generally meet three characteristics: strong product iteration ability, strong marketing ability and wealth creation effect.

4, Will there be new narrative opportunities for Bitcoin in the future?

BTC is now referred to as the "digital gold", and the future narrative can be summarized with a concept: "interest-bearing digital gold".

If BTC is just lying there, like gold in a bank vault, then the advantages and potential of BTC have not been fully realized. That's a shame.

Especially after Trump really uses BTC as a national strategic reserve, BTC will also become the capital reserve of many companies.

At this point, it is more crucial to combine BTCFi to turn BTC into an interest-earning asset (similar to ETH).

In traditional financial markets, interest-bearing assets account for more than 90% of total assets, so we can see the importance of interest-bearing assets to financial markets.

For example, Ethereum, after Ethereum changed from the PoW mechanism to the PoS mechanism, due to the staking scenario, Ether can obtain staking income, making Ether an interest-bearing asset, which has given birth to a series of financial games in the Ethereum ecosystem.

A series of innovative financial products such as liquidity pledge, re-pledge, and liquidity re-pledge have emerged in the Ethereum ecosystem, attracting more liquidity into the ecosystem and bringing a strong wealth effect.

The BTC ecosystem also needs such interest-bearing assets as the underlying assets, so that more new ways to play can emerge and accelerate the vitality of the ecosystem.

The key question now is how to turn Bitcoin into an income-generating asset?

Among them, Babylon, Super Bitcoin, and Solv are all worthy attempts.

Imagine a scenario like this: the Lightning Network is a payment network where payments are made using the interest on Bitcoin or future expected returns, while the principal remains untouched. This is equivalent to us utilizing the time value and future returns of Bitcoin.

It's a very rewarding and exciting scene.

5, summarize

(1) Regarding the trend of BTC in 2025: We only look at the cycle and trend, the current cycle started early, and the current round of BTC high may appear around the summer of 2025, which is expected to be around $150,000.

(2) Opportunities in the BTC ecosystem: BTCFi and BTC Layer 2. BTCFi will take over the liquidity of BTC overflow first, while BTCFi is built on BTC Layer 2.

(3) The narrative of BTC in the future: the interest-bearing digital gold. The next narrative of BTC is to become an interest-bearing asset. Currently, Babylon, Super Bitcoin, and Solv have made many valuable and relatively successful attempts.

Buy BTC now, at most you will be trapped, but not cut you.

If you want to be a diamond hand, be a diamond hand of BTC.