Attention! The 10.7 billion Magnesium options will expire at this time, will there be a big fluctuation in BTC and ETH?

The cryptocurrency market is about to face a major expiration date

At 4 p.m. on November 29th, Taipei time, the cryptocurrency market will usher in a highly anticipated key moment. According to the latest data from Deribit exchange, the total value of expiring options contracts for BTC and Ethercoin is as high as 10.7 billion, which is expected to trigger significant Fluctuation in the market. Among them, the value of BTC options contracts reaches 9.4 billion US dollars, and the value of Ethercoin options contracts is about 1.3 billion US dollars. This massive expiration trading of options has become the focus of attention for cryptocurrency investors and analysts.

Option distribution and complex market situation

In this batch of expiring BTC options, approximately $4.2 billion (45%) are in-the-money (ITM) options, with as much as 80% being call options. This means that most option holders may have the opportunity to lock in substantial investment profits. It is worth noting that the strike prices of these profitable options are generally lower than the current trading price of BTC at $95,000, providing holders with attractive profit potential.

By contrast, $5.2 billion (55%) of the options were out-of-the-money (OTM) options, with as much as $4.1 billion (98%) being put options. These put options primarily serve as a tool for investors to hedge risk, with relatively limited substantial impact on the market. Market analysts point out that the current ‘maximum pain point’ price is around $78,000, nearly 20% lower than the current BTC trading price, which may indicate some downward pressure in the market.

Historical Trends and Future Outlook

Looking back at the history, the monthly option expiration in the cryptocurrency market often triggers significant price fluctuations. Data shows that during the $4 billion option expiration event in October, BTC prices fell by 3%. However, BTC is currently challenging the remarkable $100,000 mark, which may encourage market makers to adopt more aggressive hedging strategies.

Analysts have noticed that the options that have not been Close Position are mainly concentrated in bullish options at $82,000 and bearish options at $70,000. According to the ‘maximum pain theory’, the market may move in the range of $70,000 to $82,000, but industry experts believe that this scenario is relatively unlikely to occur. Instead, as BTC approaches the important psychological price level, market makers may increase their purchasing strength to hedge existing positions, which could further drive the upward momentum of the Crypto Assets market.

Investors should remain vigilant

For cryptocurrency investors, the options expiration this Friday is undoubtedly an event worth closely following. Market volatility may significantly increase, and investors should closely follow the price movements of BTC and Ethercoin and carefully evaluate their investment strategies. Professional analysts recommend that, in such a critical market moment, staying calm, rational, and strictly implementing risk management is the most important investment principle.

【Disclaimer】There are risks in the market, and investment needs to be cautious. This article does not constitute investment advice, and users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their specific situation. Invest at your own risk.

“Attention! 107 billion magnesium options will expire at this time, will there be a big fluctuation in BTC and ETH?” This article was first published in “encryption city”.