Is the garbage time about to end? August may become the main turning point of the encryption market

Author: Digital Asset Research

Compiled by Peisen, BlockBeats

Editor’s note: Digital Asset Research presents a high probability of significant events or news occurring from August 6th to 12th based on detailed data in terms of time range, price range, and time perspective. The article also compares the current market cycle with previous cycles, pointing out the time patterns of market trend changes, and provides ample evidence in conjunction with monthly and weekly charts analysis.

This is something I have been publicly discussing for some time, but today I want to confirm again that there is evidence showing that there may be very significant trends and emotional changes in the BTC and broader Cryptocurrency market between August 6 and 12.

A few months ago, I mentioned this time frame for the first time in a video outlook, which you can find here.

Today, I will show all the evidence gradually established based on time range, price range and time perspective. I think you will see a high probability of significant events or news happening within this time window.

We will start from the monthly chart and go all the way to the daily chart to show the convergence of multiple factors that we see.

The monthly chart was the key content that we followed closely last week, but to further prove that we are in the same cycle, we have also added the months of the previous two tops. As you can see, the previous two cycles are almost identical to the current one. 33 months from the main high point and 20 months from the main low point both place us in the period from July to September, which is the final low point before a significant pump.

Now we know that time is on our side, but many people think this cycle is different because prices have quickly reached historic highs. However, let’s compare the current cycle with previous cycles on the monthly chart.

The evidence is quite shocking. As you can see, except for 2012, the price in the first two cycles pumped just over 200% from the Bear Market low point, which is exactly where we are now. As you can see, this time is no different. In fact, time and price are right where they should be, neither overextended as some commentators have said, nor exceeding expectations.

Next, let’s take a look at the weekly chart, there is more long content to discuss. First of all, we found that there will be a major trend change every 30 weeks in this cycle. Interestingly, this 30-week cycle falls exactly between a major low and a major high, occurring at the same time. I will explain the reason in the next few charts, but for now, let’s take a look at the next 30-week cycle, which happens to be on the week of August 12th. The total of these three 30-week cycles, starting from the low point of the Bear Market, is 90 weeks.

In addition, zoom in on the weekly chart. I noticed that from the high point in 2017 to the first significant high point in 2021, it was 174 weeks. August 12th will be 174 weeks from the significant high point in April 2021, undoubtedly an important high point. Therefore, we are approaching the same time period between two important turning points, the high point in 2017 and the high point in April 2021.

Now, based on our evidence, the market is in a different phase. In my opinion, the turning point is more likely to occur in the form of a major low rather than a major high. But as I have always said, we often see a major high and low in this time window during these cycles.

The following figure shows this particular period in each cycle, as well as the situation at this time last year in the current cycle. As you can see, there is almost always a sharp pump in August, followed by a rapid decline with a drop of 20-50%. Unlike the other three charts last year, it is only in the second year of the cycle, but it shows the seasonal trend of this type of movement occurring in August.

It also shows that in this cycle, the market has seen significant highs and lows near the turning points of 30 weeks, with a relatively compact time window.

Now let’s take a look from a time perspective. Simply put, the time perspective refers to starting from a significant high or low point, calculating 30 calendar days, and looking for trend changes. You only need to start from 30, then add 30, 60, 90, 120, 150, 180, etc., and look for trend changes at these time points. The more concentrated the time points are, the higher the importance of that day or week.

As shown in the chart below, all these time measurements fall within a time angle window. During this cycle, we have several major highs and lows pointing to the second week of August as a major convergence period.

Finally, from the perspective of time range, the market has been following the 150-day cycle pattern in this cycle: 155 days pump and 150 days consolidation. It is worth noting that the balance of market time should not be imbalanced. In other words, the number of days the market falls should not exceed the number of days it pumps. In a Bull Market, the time the market pumps is usually longer than the time it falls, as shown in the chart below. If the number of days the market falls exceeds the previous 150 days and a new low point appears, this is not a good sign.

Finally, taking into account the price range, time range, time perspective, and seasonal factors, we are approaching a mid-August window that could very likely become a trigger point for BTC. If this evidence is not sufficient, please note that the starting date on the BTC chart is August 19th. I won’t discuss this issue too much, but the birth date is important, and August is usually the beginning of the major Bull Market.

This is why I am being cautious here and waiting to take more aggressive action after this window closes. Will we see ETH ETF eventually start trading and then experience a rapid decline like BTC ETF? Or will we see more political headlines causing uncertainty in the election? I’m not entirely sure what it will be, but it’s definitely a period worth following and being patient with.