Has the market stopped falling? Analysis of the market and trading strategies for BTC and ETH

[Heart]BTC has moved out of the retracement as scheduled, and as in the past, the initial decline of ETH and altcoins was greater than that of BTC. Currently, BTC has fallen by 6.8% at the high, ETH has fallen by 12%, and altcoins generally by 15-20%. The market has also experienced a grayscale dump during the downtrend, and the arrival of Unfavourable Information such as Mt. Gox. From the current market situation, I believe that the short-term reversal may not be significant, and there is still further action to confirm the bottom. There is no need to be too bullish in the short term. The general direction of the market is still bullish. After this retracement, the upward target for BTC remains at 69000-70000, and the market in August will not be bad. This retracement will not be as long as the previous consolidation, as it is now the starting point of the second stage of the Bull Market, and the overall pace will accelerate. Let's make some projections for the future trend.
1 (20% probability): Three waves of decline on the four-hour level, short-term operation above 63800, good news during the trading session, longs strong Rebound to stabilize at the 66000 resistance level, longs form a reversal, resolve short-term pullback risks, shorten the adjustment period, and start a new round of pump in the future.
2: (80% probability): The 4-hour chart shows a 5-wave decline, and short-term longs are unable to rebound, and cannot effectively stay above 66000. There will be another decline in the future, to test the support near 62800-63000 or 60000-61000, complete the bottoming-out trend, and start a new round of pump.
[❤️] Personally, I prefer the second trend as it is healthier. However, regardless of the direction, the market remains bullish. The pullback this time is limited, and recently there has been a significant impact from Favourable Information. In order to avoid missing out, there are two ways to operate: Spot.
1: Those who catch the bottom this morning can follow the 66000 resistance level. If long positions break through and hold, you can continue to hold. If 66000 fails to hold, those who want to engage in swing trading can reduce positions and take profits from catching the bottom in the morning, and then buy back after the next bottoming out.
2: For those who do not want to do swing trading, continue to hold the first hand you bought in the morning, and wait for the second dip in the future to lower the average price before buying the second hand.
[Love] People without ETH can take advantage of this pullback to build a position in batches and hold it for the long term. For example, if you bought the first batch around 3200 in the morning, you can enter the second batch when the market retraces to around 3000-3050. The short-term target is 3850/4000, and the long-term target is 6000.