7/22 $BTC Comprehensive Market Outlook

😇 News:

Positive catalysts: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows for the 5th consecutive trading day. On July 20, the single-day inflow was about **$840k** (the highest since July 6), and the 5-day cumulative inflow was about **$727 million**. BlackRock’s IBIT is the main contributor.

Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) disclosed selling part of its MSTR shares to build USD reserves (rather than buying BTC in an unconventional way), but the market reaction was limited. BTC continued to rally strongly, showing that investors’ confidence in the long-term holding thesis has not been meaningfully shaken.

Other positives: Galaxy launched a Bitcoin quantum computing preparedness initiative (promising up to $5 million in developer grants); Coinbase supports Bitcoin futures cross-margin and mini contract trading. These institutional moves reinforce the narrative of Bitcoin as “digital gold” and an infrastructure asset.

Macroeconomic backdrop: Tensions in the Middle East have flared up again, but risk assets (including BTC and U.S. equities) can still maintain resilience, suggesting the market is pricing geopolitical risk in a relatively restrained manner.

😇 Flows:

ETF inflows strong: Consecutive days of net inflows broke the prior trend of prolonged net outflows, indicating institutional capital is gradually returning. Inflow data over the past week or longer supports the sustainability of the rebound.

Leverage liquidations: In the past 24 hours, forced liquidations in the crypto market totaled about $242 million, of which shorts accounted for $182.5 million. This directly provided fuel for the price rise.

On-chain and holdings: Some Bitcoin is still in unrealized losses (about half of supply is underwater), but there are signs of accumulation by “smart money.” Strategy still holds a large amount of BTC (about 840k coins). Although its positioning has adjusted dynamically, it has not triggered panic selling.

😇 Technicals:

These past few days, I’ve been reminding everyone that the move would be mainly a rebound. And yesterday, I reminded everyone that Bitcoin would catch up on the lag. Sure enough, our predictions have played out one by one.

As for the current level, in my view the rebound is still not over. Intraday support under the strong level is 66,300; support under the weaker level is 65,700. If it does not break above 67,000 on an hourly basis, there will likely be a pullback.

#Bitcoin Market Analysis