Why are people bullish on XRP breaking $5? The market is showing extreme divergence over XRP’s outlook.

As of July 21, 2026, XRP’s price on the Gate platform has been holding steady at around $1.10. This price is down about 70% from the $3.65 cycle high reached in July 2025. However, more than the price itself, what deserves closer attention is the extreme split over XRP’s next direction—on one side, the “$5” target repeatedly pushed by the community and some analysts; on the other, bearish claims of “negative $5.” These two narratives clash on the same timeline, reflecting a fundamental disagreement in the market about XRP’s value logic.

What market position is XRP in right now

After XRP hit the $3.65 peak in July 2025, it entered a long correction. This year alone, it is down nearly 42%. As of July 21, XRP is trading in the $1.10 to $1.11 range. From a technical perspective, XRP continues to trade within a converging symmetric triangle pattern, with buyers defending at higher lows, while sellers maintain downward resistance. The 50-day EMA sits at $1.14, forming near-term overhead resistance alongside the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $1.13; on the downside, $1.00 is the psychological support level widely watched by the market.

In terms of market cap, XRP has fallen from over $300 billion at its peak to roughly $70 billion. This contraction closely tracks the price action, suggesting that the speed of new capital inflows has not been enough to offset exits by existing holders.

Why the long/short split is erupting at the current moment

The spark for the split comes from two completely opposite price narratives. On the bullish side, crypto analyst Altcoin Moe previously predicted in 2024 that XRP would reach $5 during the 2025 bull market. Although XRP only rose to about $3.65 at the time and failed to break through that level, the expectation of “$5” never disappeared. After entering 2026, South Korean market research firm NineDex, based on XRP’s rising channel pattern, again raised the possibility of $5. Even more aggressive projections emerged within the community: if Ripple’s stablecoin RLUSD expands its adoption range, it could indirectly boost demand for XRP.

On the bearish side, the pressure is also mounting. Crypto investor Mike Alfred publicly stated on a social platform that his long-term target for Bitcoin is $1.5 million, for Ethereum is $31,500, but for XRP his long-term target is “negative $5.” Since crypto prices cannot realistically fall below zero, the market generally interprets this statement as a strong challenge to XRP or a sarcastic expression. But the extreme wording of “negative $5” by itself is enough to draw market attention, sharply counterbalancing the optimistic “$5” expectations.

How changes in the regulatory landscape are reshaping XRP’s value anchor

To understand this split, you cannot avoid the legal battle between Ripple and the SEC. The lawsuit, which began in 2020, once pushed Ripple to the brink of shutting down. CEO Brad Garlinghouse revealed in a recent interview that the company seriously considered ending operations and distributing XRP holdings to shareholders pro rata. Ripple spent $150 million on legal defense during the four-year dispute.

In 2023, U.S. District Court Judge Analisa Torres issued a key ruling: sales of XRP on public exchanges were not securities transactions. Ripple was subsequently ordered to pay a civil penalty of $125 million. Both Ripple and the SEC appealed different parts of the ruling, but after agreeing to withdraw the related filings, the case formally ended in August 2025.

The end of the lawsuit did not eliminate all uncertainty, but it did change the discussion framework. Under SEC Chair Paul Atkins and the new government leadership, regulators shifted from a more aggressive “enforcement as regulation” approach toward strengthening engagement with the crypto industry. Meanwhile, the CLARITY Act passed in May 2026 is viewed as a potential regulatory turning point. Japan also took a key step—approving a framework to reclassify digital assets such as XRP as financial instruments. SBI Holdings has submitted an application for a Bitcoin-XRP spot ETF. These regulatory changes are providing new anchors for the long-term value narrative of XRP, but in the short term they have not translated into a price breakout.

Why technical and on-chain data point in different directions

The divergence between technical indicators and on-chain data is one of the most notable contradictions in the current market.

From a technical standpoint, XRP still faces multiple resistances. The RSI is hovering around 42.7, slightly below the key level of 44—which had previously acted as a macro support. After breaking below it recently, it flipped into resistance. In the short term, for XRP to reverse the trend, it first needs to reclaim the resistance zone between $1.13 and $1.14. The overall technical structure still looks heavy.

However, on-chain data shows a different picture. Over the past week, whale addresses holding between 10 million and 100 million XRP accumulated an additional roughly 70 million XRP, bringing their total holdings to about 3.83 billion XRP. Looking at a longer time horizon, since XRP fell from its $3.6 high in July 2025, these whale addresses have collectively accumulated more than 4.63 billion XRP; their holdings increased and first exceeded 12 billion XRP. At the current price, the market value of these newly added holdings is about $4.9 billion.

Sustained price declines alongside continued whale accumulation has created a clear divergence between on-chain activity and price. In market analysis frameworks, such divergence is often seen as a split between “smart money” and “panic selling.” At the same time, the number of activated accounts on the XRP Ledger has surpassed 8 million, setting a record for the network’s first time in about 13 years. Network expansion and whale accumulation occurring simultaneously suggests the market may be undergoing a structural realignment.

What signals are market sentiment indicators sending

Sentiment signals are also contradictory. According to Santiment data, the ratio of bullish to bearish XRP comments reached as high as 3.02 to 1 at one point, the highest level in five weeks. In the same comparative set, Ethereum is 2.31 and Bitcoin is only 1.40. This implies that the heat of sentiment within the XRP community has clearly outpaced the broader market.

But the derivatives market sends a more cautious signal. CoinGlass shows XRP’s long/short ratio is around 0.88; below 1 means traders’ overall positioning in the derivatives market is tilted toward bearish bets. Meanwhile, after the funding rate turned positive on July 14, it has stayed in the bullish range of 0.0081%—indicating that longs are still paying fees to shorts. However, the low long/short ratio also suggests that bearish pressure has not disappeared.

The surge in social sentiment versus the cautious stance of the derivatives market creates another divergence. Santiment analysts explicitly pointed out that when public optimism rapidly spikes while price action weakens, it often means “latecomers” are chasing a rally that is already losing momentum. This setup may bring downside risk in the short term.

Is there a middle ground between the $5 target and “negative $5”

The coexistence of extreme price narratives essentially reflects a lack of market consensus on XRP’s valuation framework.

The core bullish logic is based on the expectation that, once regulatory obstacles are cleared, XRP will be repriced by institutional capital. The conclusion of the SEC lawsuit, the advancement of the CLARITY Act, Japan’s openness toward crypto ETFs, and Ripple recently receiving a MiCA license in Luxembourg—unlocking 30 European markets—are all providing material for the narrative that “XRP will enter mainstream financial infrastructure.” SWIFT is testing XRP as a bridging liquidity asset within its interbank network, and Japan’s government-led payment system upgrade project—built in cooperation with Ripple—supports cross-border enterprise payment rails. If these developments keep being implemented, they could indeed lead to real fundamental improvements for XRP.

But the bearish logic also has its basis. The drop from $3.65 to $1.10 already shows that regulatory good news being achieved does not automatically equal price rising. Market cap shrank from $300 billion to $70 billion, indicating that even after the lawsuit ends, the market’s valuation of XRP is still contracting. Technically, XRP is still below short-, mid-, and long-term moving averages. Without large-scale new capital inflows, upside potential may remain limited.

Standard Chartered Bank cut its XRP target price for end-2026 from $8 to $2.80, while keeping its $28 prediction for 2030 unchanged. This “cautious short term, optimistic long term” framework may be a form of compromise reflecting the market’s current disagreement—misalignment in time horizons between bulls and bears makes short-term price discovery more complex.

How will this split affect XRP’s market structure

Extreme disagreement itself often signals that the market is about to choose a direction.

In terms of position structure, the divergence between whales and retail is deepening. Large holders with 10 million to 100 million XRP continue to accumulate, while medium-sized addresses holding 100k to 1 million XRP have continued to reduce since August 2025. XRP balances on exchanges have continued to decline—Binance’s XRP holdings have fallen to 2.6 billion, the lowest in five months—which is usually interpreted as investors being more inclined to hold rather than sell in the short term. This shift of chips from dispersed to concentrated could provide structural support to prices in the medium term.

But short-term uncertainty remains prominent. XRP has been consolidating around $1.10 for a relatively long time. Trading volume surged 61% to $1.96 billion at one point on July 21, yet the price has still not effectively broken out of the consolidation pattern. This “high volume without breakout” state often means bulls and bears are intensely battling, and the moment for directional selection is nearing.

From a more macro view, XRP’s long/short split is not an isolated case. It is a microcosm of how market participants are rethinking asset pricing logic after the crypto market underwent severe volatility from 2024 to 2025. The reshaping of the regulatory framework, changes in institutional involvement, and the evolution of network fundamentals are jointly pushing XRP to transition from a “lawsuit-driven asset” to a “fundamentals-driven asset.” The transition itself is the root of the split—and also the way the split will eventually be resolved.

Summary

XRP is currently facing a decision on direction around $1.10. On the bullish side, regulatory clarity, network expansion, and continued whale accumulation point to a $5 target or even higher in the long term. On the bearish side, persistent price declines, market cap contraction, and technical resistance are cited—going so far as to use the extreme “negative $5” phrasing. The divergence between technical indicators and on-chain data, the split between social sentiment and the derivatives market, all together form a complex and contradictory picture of the current market. Against the backdrop of continued whale accumulation and improving network activity, the ultimate outcome of this dispute may depend on whether institutional capital truly enters the market and whether Ripple’s actual progress in cross-border payments can translate into sustainable demand. The short-term direction is still unclear, but the evolution of market structure is already quietly underway.

FAQ

Q1: What is XRP’s current price?

As of July 21, 2026, XRP’s price on the Gate platform is holding steady at around $1.10.

Q2: Why is the market so divided on XRP?

The core of the disagreement is two completely different price narratives—on the bullish side, regulatory clarity, network expansion, and whale accumulation point to a $5 target; on the bearish side, persistent price declines, market cap contraction, and technical resistance are cited, and there has even been an extreme “negative $5” expression.

Q3: What is the current status of XRP’s SEC lawsuit?

The lawsuit between Ripple and the SEC officially ended in August 2025. Ripple was ordered to pay a civil penalty of $125 million. Since then, the regulatory environment has changed, and under new leadership the SEC has shifted toward strengthening engagement with the crypto industry.

Q4: What have whale addresses been doing recently?

Over the past week, whale addresses holding between 10 million and 100 million XRP collectively accumulated roughly 70 million XRP. Since XRP’s high in July 2025, these addresses have collectively accumulated more than 4.63 billion XRP.

Q5: Where are XRP’s key technical levels?

Overhead resistance clusters in the $1.13 to $1.14 range (the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level and the 50-day EMA); key downside support is at the $1.00 psychological level.

Q6: What new changes are there in XRP’s regulatory outlook?

Japan has approved a framework to reclassify digital assets such as XRP as financial instruments, and SBI Holdings has submitted an application for a Bitcoin-XRP spot ETF. Ripple recently received a MiCA license in Luxembourg, enabling access to 30 European markets.