Bitcoin returns to a key range, and this rebound is not just a sentiment correction

On July 21, the crypto market showed a clear recovery. Bitcoin briefly broke above $66,000 during the day, then consolidated above $65,000; Ethereum also regained the $1,900 area, and major coins broadly followed the rebound. The latest market data shows Bitcoin’s 24-hour gain exceeds 2%, indicating that short-term risk appetite in the market is recovering.

Behind this upswing, first is an improvement in liquidity. The image mentions that US Bitcoin spot ETFs saw about $226.8 million in net inflows. Farside data shows ETF funds have indeed turned back to sustained inflows in recent days; from July 15 to 17, they recorded net inflows of $107.7 million, $79.1 million, and $132.3 million, respectively. Traditional capital has not completely exited after the earlier decline; instead, it has begun rebuilding positions at lower levels.

The macro environment is also providing support. After US inflation data cooled, the market is again pricing in the possibility of the Federal Reserve shifting policy; risk appetite in US stocks and crypto assets is repairing in parallel. At the same time, rising expectations around US crypto regulatory legislation add another layer of emotional support to the market.

However, this rebound does not mean a bull market has restarted.

Bitcoin has fallen sharply from above $120k and is still in a medium- to long-term adjustment structure. On-chain MVRV data shows Bitcoin’s valuation is nearing the realized-value region, suggesting the market is not as crowded as it was at the highs. But being “close to the bottom” does not mean the price won’t probe lower again. The truly critical point now is whether Bitcoin can stabilize above $65,000 on a weekly timeframe, and then further reclaim the $69,000–$70,000 pressure zone.

Whale withdrawals, staking, and profitable exits from old addresses also reflect that the market is undergoing a shift in holdings: some long-term holders are choosing to take profits, while other capital is starting to accumulate on dips. Because specific on-chain address transactions still need further verification, you can’t judge the trend based only on a single whale move. But this divergence itself shows the market has moved from a one-way panic phase into a re-pricing stage with both bulls and bears active.

In my view, this move looks more like a “repair driven by capital returning” rather than a confirmed new leg of the main uptrend. ETF inflows, low-level MVRV, and whales adding positions are positive signals, but three key points still need monitoring afterward: whether Bitcoin can hold $65,000, whether ETF inflows can remain continuous, and whether Ethereum can truly break above $2,000.

The rebound has appeared, but trend confirmation takes time. What is most to be avoided at this stage is not missing a single bullish candle, but chasing high again blindly when there has been no confirmation of a breakout yet. #夏日创作营 #ETH突破1900美元 @Gate 广场