July 21 $BTC Comprehensive Market Overview Analysis



🤯 News Feed:

Positive factors: Bitcoin rebounded from recent lows and has regained the area around $65k. ETF inflows have resumed (net inflow of roughly $197M-$273M last week, ending the large-scale outflows seen in the previous several weeks), with significant net inflows into institutional products such as BlackRock. Companies like MicroStrategy continue to hold/accumulate BTC, providing support for institutional demand. Geopolitics did not trigger a sustained crash, showing market resilience.

Negative/Prudent factors: The Fear & Greed Index fell to 29 (extreme fear), reflecting weak market sentiment. Strategy authorization for potential BTC sales (up to $1.25 billion); although it has not immediately impacted the price, it increases supply pressure. On the macro front, selling pressure in US tech stocks and risk-off sentiment have weighed on the market to some extent.

🤯 Capital Flows:

ETF inflow recovery: In early July, ETF flows turned to net inflows (daily high of over $200M), partially offsetting June’s record outflows (over $8B). This provides price support, especially led by products such as BlackRock IBIT.

On-chain data: Exchange net outflows (reducing sell pressure), with long-term holders (LTH) making up a high proportion and continuing to accumulate. Whale activity remains relatively stable, but short-term holders still have some profit-taking/stop-loss. Leverage has cooled down, reducing the risk of liquidations.

🤯 Technical Analysis:

The market action analysis yesterday is exactly what we mentioned—keeping an eye on the rebound. Now, we can see that Bitcoin has already broken above the 65K level we discussed yesterday, and it has also broken through the upper edge of the triangle. Next, we need to watch whether it can continue this move. So, to summarize: as long as it does not break 65K during the day, it should trade around 66.5K. 66.5K is the long/short pivot point for this leg. If this level can hold, price will likely trade in the 68K to 70K range.

So, in summary, we still need to look at whether the trend can continue. If there is no continuation, then any discussion is just guessing. Personally, from my perspective at the daily level, I still expect a rebound.

Support: 65k-63,800
Resistance: 66,300-67,500
ETH3.54%
BTC3.59%
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