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Opinion: Insider information is the key to predicting the market; those with knowledge will push prices closer to the truth

MeNews
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ME News, April 26 (UTC+8). The prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket are facing growing regulatory pressure, including increased attention and planned crackdowns on insider trading by law enforcement agencies across multiple countries and U.S. local governments. However, Robin Hanson, a George Mason University professor and one of the founders of prediction market theory, said that insider information is crucial for prediction markets and that strictly prohibiting insider trading is wrong. He pointed out that the authenticity of prices driven by those with inside knowledge is at the core of prediction markets, helping decision-making with accurate information. Hanson also argued that while secrets can be protected through contracts, the flow of information is equally important, and public participation in the market should not be excluded due to information control. He suggested that market participants should bear the risk themselves and participate in a way similar to playing poker, while emphasizing that prediction markets as a democratic information-aggregation tool are not suitable for everyone. (Source: MLion)
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