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Opinion: Insider information is the key to predicting the market; insiders will push prices closer to the truth

MeNews
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ME News reports that on April 26 (UTC+8), prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket are facing mounting regulatory pressure, including increased attention from law enforcement agencies in multiple countries and U.S. local governments that have begun to focus on and plan to curb insider trading. However, Robin Hanson, a professor at George Mason University and one of the founders of prediction market theory, said that insider information is crucial to prediction markets and that it is wrong to strictly prohibit insider trading. He pointed out that price authenticity driven by insiders is at the core of prediction markets, helping decision-making with accurate information. Hanson also suggested that while secrets can be protected through contracts, information sharing is equally important, and the public should not be excluded from participating in the market due to information control. He advised market participants to assume risk for themselves, participate in a manner similar to playing poker, and emphasized that prediction markets as a tool for democratic information aggregation are not suitable for everyone. (Source: MLion)
KALSHI-8.88%
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