7/20 $BTC Comprehensive Market Analysis

🤯 News:

On July 19, the crypto market saw a modest rebound: Bitcoin rose by about 0.47%, and the global crypto market cap held steady at around $1.25 trillion. The Fear & Greed Index entered a neutral zone (50/100), down from earlier, but not to extreme panic

Broader July context: Bitcoin rebounded nearly 8-10% from the late-June lows, driven by soft U.S. employment data, a recovery in ETF inflows, and expectations for the seasonal “Green July.” Historical data shows that after similar June sell-offs in 2018/2022, July often sees rebounds

Key risks: geopolitical events (such as Trump-related comments about Iran), institutions like Strategy reducing holdings, and the wait-and-see sentiment ahead of the Fed’s late-month meeting. No major negative sudden event, but macro uncertainty remains

🤯 Flows:

ETF Flows: In early July, the market ended an 8-week outflow period and saw multiple days of net inflow (daily peak at 200M+, weekly inflow about $197M). Led by players like BlackRock IBIT, but overall remains cautious (still facing cumulative outflow pressure). Around July 19, data continued to show slight positive or stable flows, supporting the price rebound

On-chain: Some indicators show bottoming signals (e.g., support near MVRV and realized price), but supply is still partially “underwater” (>50% of holders are at a loss). Whale liquidity and exchange inflows need monitoring. Funding rates are mildly positive, and leverage is not excessively crowded

Overall: Institutional capital returning is the core driver of the rebound, but summer liquidity is thin, and demand has not surged

🤯 Technicals:

The intraday action this morning keeps oscillating back and forth here. From a weekly timeframe perspective, this position is about to form a bottom divergence, which would likely push a new wave of market rebound. The end of this rebound could be around 70k. From the bigger picture, after this rebound ends, the next decline would be a great opportunity for us to enter

On the daily timeframe, this level has kept ranging around above 62,500, while the bottom is gradually lifting. And now price is above the EMA 30 line; MACD has also moved above the zero line, meaning bullish momentum is about to kick in. The prerequisite is that the defense level at 62,500 must hold and not break down, and the overhead resistance at 65,000 must be effectively reclaimed

In summary, today will mainly be a rebound, because the bigger direction still requires a smaller-timeframe rebound. Even if there is a pullback lower, it will still be more of a range/oscillation

Support: 64,500-63,400
Resistance: 65,700-68,000#PreIPOs第二期OpenAI认购