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Opinion: Insider information is the key to predicting the market; those in the know will push prices closer to the truth

MeNews
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ME News, April 26 (UTC+8): Prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket are facing growing regulatory pressure, with law enforcement agencies in multiple countries and U.S. local governments having begun to pay attention to and plan to curb insider trading. However, Robin Hanson, a George Mason University professor and one of the founders of predictive market theory, said that insider information is crucial to prediction markets, and that strictly banning insider trading is wrong. He pointed out that the authenticity of prices driven by those with inside knowledge is at the core of prediction markets, helping provide accurate information for decision-making. Hanson also suggested that while secrets can be protected through contracts, the flow of information is equally important, and the public should not be excluded from participating in the market because of information control. He advised market participants to take risks at their own discretion, participate in a way similar to playing poker, and emphasized that prediction markets, as a tool for democratic information aggregation, are not suitable for everyone. (Source: MLion)
KALSHI6.70%
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