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Macro Policy Guidance × Crypto Resonance: Next Week’s Key Tug-of-War Between LPR and Global Liquidity for ETH (2026.07.20-07.26)
【Macro News Snapshot】
Domestic Monetary Policy: LPR quotations will be released on Monday, July 20. The market expects the 1-year rate to remain unchanged at 3.00% and the 5-year and above rate to remain unchanged at 3.50% for the 14th consecutive month. The PBoC previously conducted a 1.4 trillion yuan, 6-month maturity buyout-style reverse repo, with a net injection of 500 billion yuan, keeping liquidity at “moderately loose + counter-cyclical adjustment.”
Overseas Macro Pressure: U.S. June core PCE fell to 2.6%, and oil prices have retreated by about 12% from the April peak. The probability that the Federal Reserve’s July 30 policy meeting will keep rates in the 3.50%–3.75% range is still on the high side, but officials’ comments are leaning hawkish—“higher for longer” expectations are weighing on risk assets. Middle East geopolitics (the US-Iran conflict) and oil-price volatility still pose spillover disruptions.
Industry and Regulation: The U.S. is progressing the CLARITY Act and the GENIUS Act, and the crypto regulatory framework is gradually taking shape. In China, strict control over virtual currency businesses means the impact on the funding side is more indirect.