#夏日创作营

Why do I think this is a good entry point for a long-term long position?--After watching, don’t forget to stock up!

Fellow families who often follow the Little God of Fortune know that I previously kept saying that around 60K for Bitcoin was a long-term long entry point. Those who followed and went long have already been in small profit.

On Friday, Bitcoin saw another wave of downside, and many buddies again “panicked hard,” fearing a new round of decline. Today I’ll break down in detail why I choose to enter long-term positions around 60K. Wavering friends, come recharge your belief!

I. Technicals: The weekly chart has released the strongest long-term bullish signal

Since we’re looking for the timing to enter for the long run, let’s start with technical indicators on the larger timeframe. From the monthly chart, during the June sell-off, the monthly candle first touched the MA60 moving average at around 57,500, and then strongly rebounded from this level, validating the effectiveness of this support.

From the weekly chart: this downtrend that started above 12W has already formed a complete five-wave decline structure. We are currently in the consolidation stage after the last wave of decline. Whether 57,700 forms a bottom needs right-side confirmation. If, after consolidating at this level, BTC directly starts a rebound, then we can confirm that this E-wave decline has ended, and the bear market has likely ended as well.

From the moving average system on the weekly K-line: over the past two weeks, price has been oscillating around the 200MA, and the support at this level has started to show.

So before the rebound, laying in from the left side and setting a stop-loss below the previous low is a trade with a pretty good risk-reward ratio. If it goes your way, you can hold long-term and watch whether a bull market begins. If it doesn’t, you can observe whether the rebound can break above the 200-day moving average as the bull-bear dividing line. If it meets resistance, be ready to take profits at any time.

On a slightly shorter timeframe—daily chart—since the early-July rebound, price has been running above the Bollinger Band middle line, and each rebound’s high point keeps stepping higher. Compared with June, the trend strength is clearly much better.

Next, key levels to focus on:

Key support levels

First support: around 62,500 (daily middle band support). If this level is broken effectively, the short-term trend will turn bad. For families targeting short- and medium-term goals, you can clear out.

Second support: the 60,000 psychological level (long-term support). Unless there’s a major negative surprise/“black swan,” if it breaks again below 60,000.

Key resistance levels

First resistance: around 66,000 (short-term resistance), the rebound high from the earlier phase. If it breaks, this E-wave decline’s rebound is officially underway.

Second resistance: around 69,800 (long-term resistance). If it breaks, the bear market is likely basically over.

Third resistance: around 73,100 (200-day moving average; bull-bear dividing line). If it breaks, the bull market officially returns.

II. Downside magnitude: drawdown over 50%, risks have been largely flushed out

Since Bitcoin began falling from 12W, it has bottomed around 57,700, with a drawdown of over 50%. Meanwhile, gold—the other safe-haven asset—made a peak around $5,500 within the year. Even if it has since pulled back to around $4,000, its gain since early this year is still over 30%.

Along with the “waist-cut” in price has been a frantic liquidation and clearing of leveraged long positions. Big whale liquidations on-chain represented by “Maji Brother” happened countless times. Yi Li Hua Wei cut exposure to prevent liquidation, reducing positions. Even MicroStrategy, which seems to have endless ammo, has recently considered pausing its Bitcoin purchase plan.

“Don’t kill longs, don’t stop shorts.” At present, it looks like longs have already been mostly flushed out. Based on long-side data sources (mainly CoinGlass), the average daily liquidation amount in the Bitcoin market in June was roughly $185 million to $200 million. From CoinGlass’s current BTC liquidation page data: on June 22, BTC saw about $66.16M liquidated in 24 hours, and about $40.46M cumulatively over 7 days. Combined with the ongoing downtrend since early June, most of the liquidation “corpses” should be longs.

Behind the high liquidation numbers, one more point is worth noticing: contract trading volume and turnover rate have increased significantly. The wave of forced closing is accelerating market clearing. When liquidation amounts spike, it typically means weaker hands have been eliminated and remaining positions become more solid. Historically, liquidation peaks (like during the 2022 FTX crisis) often appear in the price bottom area, followed by the market starting a rebound.

III. Liquidity: Institutional funds have clearly been flowing back since July

June was the most brutal selling period for institutional funds in Bitcoin. By June 30, the total managed asset size of ETFs had fallen from the near $170 billion peak in October 2025 to about $72.82 billion—nearly cut in half. However, as expected, starting in July, institutions began to “switch sides” and go long again. The turning point came in early July.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs finally ended the nightmare of continuous eight weeks of outflows. Net inflows for the week were $197.4 million. The $8.26 billion gap in cumulative outflows since May 11 began to be repaired. On July 10, single-day net inflows were about $90.44 million, and BlackRock’s IBIT alone contributed $86.8 million—this former “selling main force” has turned into the largest buyer.

And today, Bitcoin is trading around $64k, up close to 2%, with the entire crypto market rebounding across the board.

More worth paying attention to is the subtle shift in the funding/positioning landscape:

· The bearish/bullish ratio dropped to a six-month low—traders willing to pay a premium to hedge downside risk have dwindled, and more capital is inclined to bet on Bitcoin rising.

· BlackRock CEO Larry Fink publicly stated he isn’t worried about excessive leverage in the crypto market. He is optimistic about the next 12 months and believes “excess leverage has basically been cleared from the system.”

· Funds are rotating out from AI chip stocks that have been hit by damaged narratives, and some of that money is flowing into Bitcoin, which has been under pressure due to tighter liquidity. This is not the traditional “safe-haven” logic—it’s risk-asset internal reallocation.

IV. Macro news: The impact of the Iran–Iraq war is weakening; watch when the rate-cut cycle starts

Recently there’s another interesting phenomenon: the US and Iran have reignited hostilities, and America’s airstrike intensity against Iran is even stronger than before, but crypto and gold aren’t falling. This suggests the Iran–Iraq war’s impact on the market is weakening.

Moreover, the US CPI data for June released last week unexpectedly eased, weakening the inflation expectations caused by the Iran–Iraq conflict. The previously high calls for rate hikes have gradually faded. Although Wosh’s first public speech still leaned hawkish, it didn’t involve rate-hike related topics. If inflation continues to cool afterward, the market is likely to restart discussions about rate cuts.

From a big-picture standpoint, the Iran–Iraq war cannot persist long-term like the Russia–Ukraine conflict. Inflation must come down, and the Federal Reserve will eventually return to the rate-cut track. Next, we need to watch when the cycle starts.

V. A timely boost for the short term: The World Cup nearing its end releases huge volumes of bet placement funds

If earlier the opening of the World Cup drew many funds into football betting markets, creating a siphoning effect on BTC and gold, then now it’s time for a “cash-back” phase!

According to estimates by the International Betting Association, total global legal betting turnover during this World Cup exceeded $150 billion, while the illegal betting market size is even 1.5 to 2 times that of the legal market. Across the entire tournament, about $300 billion to $450 billion worth of betting funds flowed globally for football competitions. In China alone, FIFA World Cup竞猜 through China Sports Lottery exceeded 12 billion yuan RMB in weekly sales, and on the final day the peak daily betting amount exceeded 3 billion yuan RMB.

These funds won’t simply disappear after the event ends—they will look for the next target. The crypto market, which has already experienced a big drop, is the most attractive new hunting ground. Compared with four years ago when the Qatar World Cup ended and Bitcoin was only around $16k, today Bitcoin is already a mature asset category with a market cap of over $1.2 trillion and daily trading volume in the hundreds of billions. More importantly, the BTC price in July rebounded from $58k to $64k, and the technicals show clear bottoming signals—this perfectly matches the psychological rhythm of gamblers holding profits after the World Cup ends and craving the next excitement.

Even if only 1% of the football-competition funds flows back into the crypto market, that still equals an incremental buy order of $3 billion to $4.5 billion. Compared with the reality that the average weekly net inflow of July Bitcoin ETFs is under $200 million, this number is enough to amplify the current market momentum by several times.

After the 2018 Russia World Cup ended, within three months Bitcoin surged from $6,000 to nearly $20k. After the 2022 Qatar World Cup, the coin price climbed from $16k all the way to $73k in March 2024. The World Cup isn’t a direct catalyst for crypto, but it is a key node for massive speculative funds to complete periodic reallocation.

VI. Finally, let’s talk about bottom-catching positioning

1. Spot players: I think you can go all-in without overthinking, keeping position size around 60%. The remaining 40% should be kept to add more in case the market drops further. In your allocation, besides the traditional must-haves—BTC and ETH—if you want to improve returns, you can allocate some altcoins that have real value and teams that are actually doing work, especially high-quality tokens related to the AI and RWA sectors. Try to avoid meme coins speculation.

2. Perps players: If you’re not willing to settle for the low returns of spot and you must use leverage to bottom-fish, then the leverage multiplier must be low. At the current level, you can take a light position first to build the “head” position. If the market later successfully breaks through and holds above the 66,000 area, then you can add positions in the same direction. Also, you must set a stop-loss. The stop-loss can be placed below 62,000. Once price breaks the stop-loss, pause and observe first—don’t get emotional and open new orders again, to avoid the miserable situation of repeatedly bottom-catching and repeatedly getting stopped out.