Capitol Hill just turned into the main chart to watch for crypto.

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, the bill that would shift most oversight to CFTC and leave security-like coins with SEC, saw its odds collapse. Polymarket traders now price a 32% chance of passage by year-end, the lowest print since the market opened in January, down from near 60% last week.

Cause of the drop is ethics fight tied to White House crypto holdings. Reports flag $1.4 billion in gains linked to President Trump, and lawmaker pushback grew. Chris Murphy called the draft a vehicle that would legalize what he sees as misuse, while GOP leaders led by Thom Tillis pushed a compromise to keep the bill alive.

Trader lens: this is a headline-driven risk. On July 17, a closed-door meet with White House aides and key lawmakers was set to settle the ethics clause. If deal emerges, BTC and COIN, HOOD, and other US-linked names could pop fast. If talks fail, summer recess will freeze progress and keep a lid on large-cap upside. For now, pros are long volatility around DC headlines, not direction, with hedges via puts.

Edge: watch Polymarket live odds as a leading gauge. A jump back above 45% is a buy signal for US exchange coins.
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