Just looked at the on-chain data—another whale address is moving again. Big deposits to an exchange, but at the same time, a sizable sell order is posted on the spot side. Honestly, this kind of operation is exhausting to watch—on the surface it looks like distribution/selling, but if you look closely at the derivatives positions, there’s also a short position set up for hedging. It’s pretty typical of the “protect yourself when the market moves” mindset.

With funding rates getting so extreme lately, a lot of people are calling for reversal or saying to keep squeezing the bubble, and I don’t know who to believe. Anyway, I’m first going to get my own follower/trade-logic straight: if it’s purely opening a position, you need to calculate the cost structure and risk exposure; if it’s hedging, then charging in blindly is basically handing over your head.

Yeah, to put it bluntly, as a small retail investor, my ability to guess the direction is already shaky. Last time I followed a whale address, it turned out they were borrowing coins to hedge—so I stupidly went in to buy the spot, and I paid a week of fees for nothing. Now I’ve learned my lesson: I’ll look at the chain first, then check the positions. No matter how I算（calculate），it still comes down to being afraid of stepping into a trap. Sometimes I really envy those who charge in with their eyes closed; at least they don’t have to stay up late every day watching the charts. But with my mild anxiety type, slow is slow—I’ll go at my pace.