$BTC Looking at the previous two bear markets, there is still a reasonable chance that we haven’t seen the final capitulation yet.

Both the 2018 and 2022 bear markets lasted roughly one year from the cycle top to the eventual bottom.

We are currently only around day 280, which means there could still be close to three months of bearish PA ahead if this cycle follows a similar timeframe.

We have also seen diminishing returns across the past bear markets. BTC dropped around 83% in 2018 and 75% in 2022, while the maximum drawdown this time has only been around 54% so far.

That is still over 20% less than what we saw at the 2022 bear market bottom.

Of course, I’m aware that a lot has changed since the previous cycle. Institutions now play a much bigger role, spot ETFs have changed the market structure, and retail traders no longer have the same impact they once had.

But if the bottom is already in, we would be looking at a much shorter bear market and a significantly smaller drawdown than in the previous two cycles.

That doesn’t mean another capitulation has to happen, but it is one of the main reasons why I’m still cautious about calling the bottom.

If there is one thing I’ve learned from previous bear markets, it is that whenever most people become convinced the bottom is in, the final capitulation is often still ahead.