#广场预测世界杯赢40000U Argentina vs Spain! World Cup final makes history: whichever team wins will write a brand-new chapter

July 18 in Paris is a bit stuffy. In a bar on the Champs-Élysées, French fans watched the replay of their 0-2 semifinal loss to Spain, downing the rest of their beer in one gulp, then immediately started browsing bookings for a Mediterranean vacation hotel—L’Equipe says the whole squad was “disgusted” about the third-place match against Germany two days later, and several starters have already arranged to fly with their families to Ibiza on the day of the final.

At the same time in Buenos Aires, it’s the opposite scene. Under the obelisk, a few thousand people gathered, waving Argentine flags and chanting hoarse, because just two days earlier they had been down 1-0 to England in the semifinal—then Enzo’s world-class strike and Lautaro’s stoppage-time header completed a 2-1 comeback, sending them into the World Cup final for the seventh time in their history. The contrast in momentum between these two sides is stark: one is a powerhouse squad that just lost the title and wants to take a break; the other is the defending champion that stormed through via a turnaround—celebrating across the entire city. And the final, set to kick off in New Jersey at 3:00 a.m. Beijing time on July 20, originally might have had France or England involved—yet in the end, it’s Argentina and Spain. Just laying out the records from both sides is already a spectacle the World Cup hasn’t seen since 1996.

Many people may not have noticed: this final is the first time in World Cup history that the top two teams in the FIFA rankings have met in the same match.

During the June international window, Spain drew with Iraq, France were upset and lost to Côte d’Ivoire. Argentina, meanwhile, climbed to first place with a slim 1.3-point advantage “by lying there” (i.e., without much effort), and after the semifinals—Spain 2-0 France, Argentina 2-1 England—the real-time rankings were still these two occupying the top two spots. Opta dug through the archives and found that even the 1928 Uruguay vs Argentina edition didn’t have this “rankings” concept as such. For the first time in 96 years, a preseason top one and top two meet in the final—just that alone is enough to go into the history books. If Spain wins, they can add two solid, measurable records to their résumé. First, they would extend their national team unbeaten streak to 38 matches, surpassing the 37-match record set by Italy from 2018 to 2021—claiming the title of the longest unbeaten run for an adult national team. Their last loss was the 2022 UEFA Nations League final to France; after that, they went a full four years without letting anyone take three points from them again. The stability feels like the second-generation core after Real Madrid’s UEFA Champions League three-peat—once the dynasty was already showing its shape. Second, it would be their second second-ever Jules Rimet Cup. Their last one came in the 2010 South Africa final, when they beat the Netherlands. Sixteen years passed in between—then winning again would let them catch France and Uruguay in total World Cup titles. In that semifinal against France, you could see it clearly: the “bullfighting” side passed the ball like a string of candied haws, with Mbappé managing just one shot all match; France’s midfield couldn’t touch the ball from start to finish. That kind of overall dominance is indeed the strongest version they’ve had in the past few years.

Argentina’s side has even denser records—basically lifting three long-pressed curses all at once.

The first is the defending-champion curse: after Italy in 1938 and Brazil in 1962, no team has ever won back-to-back again. The last team with a chance was France in 2022—and their final ended with defeat at Argentina’s feet. Now, Argentina has become the second team in the new century to reach the final as the defending champion; the first was themselves from back then. No matter how you look at it, there’s a fated feeling.

The second is the curse of being ranked No. 1 by FIFA: since FIFA introduced the ranking system in 1992, none of the eight World Cup squads that entered the tournament ranked first has won the title. They are: 1994 Germany, 1998 Brazil, 2002 France, 2006 Brazil, 2010 Spain, 2014 Germany, 2018 Germany, and 2022 Brazil—each one crashing out in the knockout stage. This 32-year rule is now being pressed onto Argentina’s shoulders.

Third is the ladder of total World Cup wins. Argentina previously won three titles—1978, 1986, and 2022—one each. If they win this time, they’ll reach four titles, tie Germany and Italy, and be joint second in history, leaving only Brazil’s five titles one step away.

So why are the last two teams these, not someone else? Just look at the other two eliminated sides. France in the semifinal were rendered powerless by Spain’s control and passing—every player’s post-match fitness report “turned red.” They were already holding back frustration and wanting to take a break; in the third-place match against Germany, it was basically just going through the motions. FIFA setting up third and fourth-place playoffs in the first place was meant to sell more tickets and earn extra broadcasting fees. This time, France doesn’t bother acting like it’s nothing—on secondary platforms, tickets for France vs Germany have already dropped by 40%, and many scalpers are dumping tickets.

England is even more unlucky. After leading Argentina 1-0 in the semifinal, Tuchel made changes by bringing off Kane and shifting to a five-defender setup to protect the advantage. But Enzo blew open the goal with a long-range strike—then in stoppage time, Lautaro’s header delivered the winner. After the match, British media put Tuchel on a trending topic—calling him out for wasting the best chance to win a World Cup in 60 years of the team’s history. The last time England won the World Cup was when it was held at home in 1966. This time, it could have made Tuchel the first foreign coach to lead a team to a World Cup—and it all fell apart. Before the match, 538 simulated the final 25k times: Spain had a 56.31% chance to win the title, while Argentina had 43.69%,
and the data still leans toward the bullfighting side’s stability over the past few years. They haven’t lost since after the 2022 UEFA Nations League; in midfield, Rodri and Pedri have been gripping the tempo tightly, and in defense, Laporte plus backup—Cubarsi/Moratti—(state) has also been steady. It wasn’t an accident that Spain pinned France into submission in the semifinal. But Argentina never buys into the “data decides everything” narrative. At the 2022 World Cup, they started by losing to Saudi Arabia—then didn’t they still win in the end? Even down 1-0 to England in the semifinal, they could turn it around. When Lautaro headed it in at stoppage time, the entire bench charged onto the field in a stacked pile—such champion energy is something you can’t truly hide. Messi didn’t play in this tournament, but inside the squad, players like De Paul and Enzo are people who touched the trophy back in 2022—they know exactly how to bite in the final.

Now all that’s left is the match at 3:00 a.m. Beijing time on July 20 in New Jersey. No matter who lifts the trophy, it will be recorded in the history books: either Spain wins their second title by extending their 38-match unbeaten run, or Argentina breaks the first-curse-for-32-years plus the defending-champion curse-for-64-years to claim their fourth crown. With both scripts placed side by side, they’re more than enough—far more effective than any kind of attention-grabbing gimmick. On secondary platforms, final tickets have already been pushed to an average of $1,200 per ticket—nearly three times more expensive than the semifinals. In domestic late-night matchwatch groups, people have already started stockpiling beer and peanuts. In any case, whichever side you bet on, when you wake up the next morning and scroll hot searches, at least seven of the top ten will be taken up—either “Spain’s dynasty is back,” or “Argentina somehow managed to defend the title.”

By the way, which side are you backing this time? Do you trust Spain’s stability—37 matches unbeaten—or do you trust Argentina’s ruthless record of reaching the final in two consecutive editions?