# Summer Creative Camp

Why do I think this is an entry point to go long for the long term? -- After you finish reading, remember to stock up!

Fellow friends who often follow Little Caishen, you all know that I previously kept saying that around $60,000 is a long-term entry point for Bitcoin long positions. Those of you who followed and went long are already up a bit. On Friday, Bitcoin saw another round of pullback. Many friends got really “panicky,” worried that a new leg of decline might start again. Today I’ll break down—step by step—why I chose to enter long-term positions around $60,000. If you’re wavering, come “top up” your belief!

I. Technicals: The weekly chart has released the strongest long-term bullish signal

Since this is about timing for a long-term entry, let’s start with technical indicators on the larger timeframe. From the monthly chart: during the June selloff, the monthly candle first touched the MA60 moving average around 57,500, and then bounced strongly from that level, confirming the effectiveness of this support.

From the weekly chart: since this downtrend started above 120,000, the weekly chart has already formed a complete five-wave decline structure. We are currently in the consolidation stage after the final wave decline. Whether 57,700 forms the bottom needs right-side confirmation. If later the big BTC consolidates here and then directly starts a rebound, it can confirm that the current E-wave decline has ended, and the bear market has likely ended as well.

From the moving average system on the weekly K-line: over the past two weeks, price has been oscillating around the 200MA, and the support function at this level is beginning to show.

Before the rebound, setting up a left-side position and a stop-loss at the previous low is a trade with a very solid risk-reward ratio. If it goes your way, you can hold long-term and observe whether a bull market starts. If it doesn’t, you can observe whether the rebound can break through the 200-day moving average bull-bear dividing line. If it meets resistance, be ready to take profit at any time.

Looking at even shorter timeframes on the daily chart: since the early-July rebound, price has been trading above the Bollinger Band middle rail. Moreover, each rebound’s high keeps getting higher. Compared with June, the trend has been very strong.

Next, focus on these key levels:

Key support levels

First support: around 62,500 (daily middle band support; if price effectively breaks below, the short-term trend turns bad—friends targeting medium/short-term gains can clear the position)

Second support: the 60,000 whole-number level (long-term support; unless there is a major negative surprise “black swan,” if it breaks below 60,000 again)

Key resistance levels

First resistance: around 66,000 (short-term resistance; the prior rebound high point—if it breaks, the rebound from the current E-wave decline is officially underway)

Second resistance: around 69,800 (long-term resistance; if it breaks above this level, the bear market is likely basically over)

Third resistance: around 73,100 (the 200-day moving average; the bull-bear dividing line—if it breaks, the bull market officially returns)

II. Downside magnitude: More than 50% drawdown—risk has been fully flushed out

Since the decline started at 120,000, Bitcoin has bottomed around 57,700, a drawdown of more than 50%. Meanwhile, gold—also considered a safe-haven asset—hit a yearly high around $5,500. Even after pulling back to around $4,000 now, it’s still up more than 30% versus the start of 2025. During the halving of price, what accompanied it was a frenzy liquidation and flushing of leveraged long positions. As exemplified by “Maji Ge,” on-chain whales got liquidated many times; Yi Li Hua, to avoid liquidation, was forced to reduce exposure. Even MicroStrategy, which looks like it has “infinite bullets,” has recently considered pausing its Bitcoin purchase plan. The so-called “when longs don’t die, shorts never stop”—it looks like longs have already been flushed out largely. Based on multi-sided data sources (mainly CoinGlass data), in June the daily average liquidation amount in the Bitcoin market was about $185 million to $200 million. From CoinGlass’s current BTC liquidation page data: on June 22, total BTC liquidations in 24 hours were about $66.16M; 7-day cumulative liquidations were about $40.46M. Combined with the persistent downtrend since early June, liquidated bodies should be mostly longs. Behind these high liquidation figures, there’s another detail worth paying attention to: contract trading volume and turnover rate have risen significantly. A forced liquidation wave is accelerating market clean-out. When liquidation amounts spike, it usually means weak hands have been eliminated and remaining positions become more solid. Historically, liquidation peaks (such as during the 2022 FTX crisis) often appear in the price-bottom region, followed by a rebound.

III. Liquidity: Institutional capital has clearly been flowing back since July

In June, Bitcoin saw the most brutal selloff by institutional capital. As of June 30, total ETF assets under management fell from nearly $170 billion at the October 2025 peak to about $72.82 billion—nearly halved. However, as expected, starting in July institutions began “turning back” to go long; the turning point came in early July. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs finally ended the nightmare of eight straight weeks of capital outflows. In a single week, net inflows were $197.4 million. The $8.26 billion gap of cumulative outflows since May 11 began to be repaired. On July 10, the single-day net inflow was about $90.44 million, and BlackRock’s IBIT alone contributed $86.8 million—this former “selling powerhouse” has turned into the biggest buyer. Today, Bitcoin is trading around $64k, up nearly 2%, with the entire crypto market rebounding across the board. What’s even more noteworthy is the subtle shift in liquidity:

· The bearish/bullish ratio fell to a six-month low—traders willing to pay a premium for downside risk have dropped, and more capital is leaning toward betting on Bitcoin rising;

· BlackRock CEO Larry Fink publicly said he’s not worried about excessive leverage in the crypto market and remains optimistic about the next 12 months, believing “excessive leverage has basically been flushed out of the system”;

· Funds are rotating out of AI chip stocks that have suffered from narrative damage, and some of that money is flowing into Bitcoin, which has been under pressure due to tighter liquidity—this isn’t the traditional “safe-haven” logic, but rather a reallocation within risk assets.

IV. Macro headlines: The impact of the Iran–U.S. conflict is fading—watch when the rate-cut cycle starts

Recently there’s another interesting phenomenon: the U.S. and Iran have reignited hostilities, and the U.S. airstrike intensity against Iran is even stronger than before, but crypto and gold haven’t fallen. This suggests the Iran–U.S. conflict’s impact on the market is weakening. Not only that: last week’s U.S. June CPI data unexpectedly eased, which reduced the inflation expectations caused by the Iran–U.S. conflict. The previously high calls for rate hikes have gradually dissipated. Although Vosh’s first public speech remained hawkish, it didn’t involve any topics about rate hikes. If inflation continues to fall afterward, the market will very likely restart discussions about rate cuts. From a larger-cycle perspective, the Iran–U.S. conflict can’t continue for the long term like the Russia–Ukraine conflict. Inflation will eventually cool, and the Federal Reserve will return to the rate-cut path. Next, we need to watch when the cycle begins.

V. A timely rain for the short term: The World Cup is nearing the end and releases massive betting capital

If earlier the opening of the World Cup drew lots of funds into football gambling markets, creating a siphoning effect on BTC and gold, then now it’s time to “replenish cash”! According to estimates by the International Betting Association, during this World Cup the total amount of legal global betting reached more than $150 billion, and the illegal betting market size is 1.5 to 2 times that of the legal market. Across the whole tournament, roughly $300 billion to $450 billion worth of football betting funds flowed globally. In China alone, China Sports Lottery World Cup prediction sales in a single week already surpassed 12 billion RMB. On the final day, the peak of daily bets exceeded 3 billion RMB. After the event ends, this money won’t just disappear—it will look for the next target. The crypto circle, which has already experienced a big drop, is the most attractive new hunting ground. Unlike four years ago at the end of the Qatar World Cup, when Bitcoin was only $16k, today Bitcoin is a mature asset category with a market cap of over $1.2 trillion and average daily trading volume in the hundreds of millions of dollars. Even more important: in July, BTC rebounded from $58k to $64k, and the technical chart shows clear bottoming signals—this perfectly matches the psychological rhythm of gamblers holding profits after the World Cup ends and craving the next round of excitement. Even if only 1% of football betting funds flows back into the crypto market, that would still be a $3 billion to $4.5 billion incremental buy order. Compared with the reality that the July Bitcoin ETF weekly average net inflow is less than $200 million, this number is enough to stir up a wave multiple times larger than the current market cycle.

After the 2018 Russia World Cup ended, Bitcoin surged from $6,000 to nearly $20k within three months. After the 2022 Qatar World Cup, the coin price climbed from $16k all the way to $73k in March 2024. The World Cup isn’t a direct catalyst for the crypto market, but it is a key node where huge speculative capital completes periodic reallocation.

VI. Finally, let’s talk about how to bottom-fish

1. Spot players: I think you can basically go for it with blind conviction. Keep position sizing around 60%, and keep the remaining 40% to add if the market drops further. In terms of allocation, besides the traditional must-haves—BTC and ETH—if you want to improve your return profile, you can allocate some altcoins with real value and teams that are truly working, especially high-quality tokens related to the AI and RWA sectors. Try to avoid the hype-driven MEME coins.

2. Futures players: If you’re not satisfied with the low returns of spot and you really must leverage to bottom-fish, the leverage multiplier must be low. At the current level, start with a small position to set up your “head position.” If the market later successfully breaks above and holds around the 66,000 area, you can add on the way. At the same time, you must use a stop-loss. The stop-loss level can be set below 62,000. Once it breaks your stop, pause and observe first—don’t get emotional and open new orders again, so you avoid falling into the awkward situation of repeatedly bottom-fishing and repeatedly getting stopped out.