To be honest, I used to be pretty obsessive—the kind of person who only looked at on-chain data. I was a confirmation number maniac. No matter what the narrative, Meme, or emotions were, I thought they were all fake. But after getting slapped a few times by Meme market cycles recently, I’ve been gradually correcting myself—on-chain can show transaction volume, position distribution, and whale in/out flows, but if you ignore emotion entirely, you’re likely to miss entries and also likely to get buried.

Take the recent NFT royalty debate, for example. No matter how much spit there was, fundamentally it’s a narrative game. How to balance creators’ revenue and liquidity—on-chain data can show how much royalties were actually collected, but the cooldown in secondary-market sentiment is also right there. If you only look on-chain, you’ll miss the timing.

My current approach is: you can follow the narrative, but you must set a stop loss. The stop loss doesn’t care about emotion—just watch on-chain signals, like the address count growth rate slowing down, holder concentration/diversification getting worse, or gas spiking abnormally. In plain terms: treat the narrative as the reason to enter, and treat on-chain as the confidence to exit. I was obsessive, then corrected it. Now I just think living matters more than anything.