BTC worth $64,000—are you going to bottom-fish?

First, look at the surface: a violent dead-cat bounce, but there’s a hidden kill shot.

By late June, it dropped to 58,000, hitting a new yearly low. Everyone was shouting “break 50k.” Then in one week, it violently surged back to 64,000, up nearly 10%. But MSTR took advantage of the bounce to sell 3,588 BTC (worth $216 million). Meanwhile, the ETF had a net outflow of 4-4.5 billion dollars in June, setting a historical record. 64,000-65,000 is strong resistance. RSI is neutral, trading volume is shrinking—yes, the bounce is real, but a reversal isn’t guaranteed yet.

First thing: MSTR is selling, but the price isn’t breaking down—this is important.

Michael Saylor’s company made a large-scale reduction for the first time in 4 years—3,588 BTC, about $216 million—used for dividends and cash reserves. But BTC only wobbled and kept going higher.

What does this mean? Selling pressure has been digested by the market. Retail panic-responds with “the big shots ran,” while institutions quietly absorbed inventory under 60k for half a month. On July 2, ETF net inflows were $223 million; on July 6, $265 million—after multiple consecutive weeks of outflows, it finally turned.

Second thing: June was the worst month in ETF history, but July shows reversal signals.

In June, net outflows were $4-4.5 billion, the worst month since ETFs launched. The media was full of “institutions are exiting.”

But if you look closely: total holdings are still 1.2 million BTC (5.76%), with AUM around $77 billion. This outflow is less than 6% of total holdings.

With the same kind of panic, there was a similar episode before—back in January 2024, right before the ETF approval, when BTC fell from 48,000 to 38,000 and everyone shouted “good news already exhausted.” What happened? Three months later, it rose to 73,000.

Third thing: Macros are still bad, but the market is already “numb.”

The Fed’s June FOMC released a hawkish signal; the dot plot suggests rate hikes could be possible by year-end. CPI YoY is 4.2%, and core PCE was revised up to 3.6%. The Iran situation has pushed up oil prices; a strong dollar suppresses risk assets. Sounds scary?

But look at the tape—BTC bounced from 58,000 back to 64,000.

The macro hasn’t improved, but the price isn’t falling anymore. This is a classic bottoming signal.

Bull vs bear—judge for yourself

One side is:

A violent rebound of 10% from 58,000; after reclaiming the breakdown level, it forms a typical “bear trap” structure

Continuous net inflows for early July; institutions begin bottoming

RSI is neutral; moving averages are tangled—no technical overbought

Realized price around 54,000 forming strong support

The other side is:

MSTR trimmed during the bounce—selling pressure is still there

June was the worst ETF month; market confidence damaged

Fed hawkish—possible rate hikes; high rates suppress

3 attempts to break 64,000-65,000 failed; resistance is heavy

Key levels

Resistance above: 64,500 → 65,000 (bulls’ lifeline) → 67,000 → 70,000

Support below: 60k-61,000 (strong support) → 58,000 (double bottom)

For short-term traders:

Wait for a pullback to 61,000-62,000 to enter again. Stop-loss at 60,000. First target: take half off at 64,500-65,000. If it breaks above 65,000 with volume, then chase long; stop-loss at 64,000; aim for 67,000-70,000.

For swing traders:

Build positions in batches in the 61,000-62,000 range. Target 80,000-100,000. Stop-loss at 58,000. Use DCA—don’t go all-in at once.

For long-term believers:

Dollar-cost average with eyes closed below 60,000. With the halving cycle + institutions’ adoption + a potential rate-cut cycle in 2027, the bull-market peak in 2028 could be seen at 150,000+

BTC now is like Bitcoin in September 2023—

Everyone was waiting for the “final drop,” but it didn’t drop; it went straight from 25,000 to 73,000.

The day it breaks 65,000, you’ll realize:

Turns out it isn’t that BTC can’t work—it’s that you always die before dawn. #PreIPOs第二期OpenAI认购 #GateDEX全面接入RobinhoodChain #夏日创作营 $BTC $ETH $SOL