To “save hassle,” they removed the ethics clause—and as a result, they killed the entire bill. I don’t quite understand CLARITY’s move, but I’m genuinely shocked.

82% to 32%.

This isn’t a chart candle from some random low-cap coin. This is the probability on Polymarket that the CLARITY bill will be approved in 2026.

From the swagger of February to the historic all-time low on July 18. In three months, it dropped by 50 points.

What happened?

On July 14, the merged draft was released, and the ethics clause repeatedly demanded by Democrats was deleted.

That one—the clause that prohibits the president, the vice president, members of Congress, and their immediate family members from holding crypto assets or profiting from them during their time in office.

Deleted. Clean and tidy.

Why delete it? Because the White House wouldn’t accept “a specific clause targeting the president.” Crypto-related income disclosed by the Trump family exceeds $1 billion—World Liberty Financial at about $594 million, and $635 million from meme coin sales.

Deleting it might save trouble, but it could directly doom the entire bill.

There are 53 Republican seats in the Senate. To clear the 60-vote threshold for final debate, at least 7 Democrats need to break ranks.

What are the Democrats saying?

Gillibrand: Without enforceable ethics language, there are no Democratic votes.

Murphy, Van Hollen, Merkley: On July 14, they held a joint press conference and formally opposed it.

Warren: Joined the opposition camp.

When the Banking Committee voted in May, only 2 Democrats voted in favor.

Now that the ethics clause is gone, where do you think those 7 votes come from?

Deleting the clause is equivalent to voluntarily blowing up the Democrats’ vote bank.

July 20 and July 27 are the last two voting windows before the recess. The recess is on August 7.

If you miss this window, the bill could be pushed to 2027 and even 2030.

A bill that passed the House 294-134 with a high margin, and a bill that passed the Senate Banking Committee 15-9—could end up dying on a single sentence.

One ethics clause. One sentence. And it can erase two years of effort.

A lot of people think: “Cutting it is a good thing! If officials can’t hold positions, then who would speak up for us?”

Let me tell you how short-sighted that idea is.

In the short term, deleting the clause really does make things easier—fewer points of contention, and the bill text looks “cleaner.”

But what about long term?

What does a regulatory framework without ethics constraints mean?

It means the people writing the rules can also place bets in this industry.

You ask a president holding crypto assets worth hundreds of millions of dollars to sign a bill regulating the crypto industry—who do you think he’ll favor?

This isn’t a conspiracy theory. It’s out in the open.

When regulators themselves are also stakeholders, the word “fairness” is a joke.

And a regulatory framework without credibility is more terrifying than no regulation at all.

Because it gives everyone the illusion that “the industry has been regulated.” But in reality, the rules are tailored for certain people.

Murphy put it especially painfully:

“If a new crypto regulatory system can’t stop Trump’s corruption in this industry, then drafting it is meaningless.”

It sounds harsh, but the logic is airtight.

Deleting the ethics clause is bad news for the crypto industry. Not that kind of short-term, price-moving bad news—this is institutional-level bad news.

Because without ethics constraints, regulation isn’t regulation—it’s the legalization of privilege.

In the short term, if the bill passes, the industry gets “clarity”—and prices may rise.

In the long term, a regulatory framework that the public sees as “tailor-made for the powerful” will face a full backlash one day.

Then it won’t be the SEC coming after you—it will be Congress, it will be voters, and it will be society’s trust in the crypto industry collapsing.

To save the hassle of a single clause, and gamble away the legitimacy of the entire industry—no matter how you calculate it, that bill is never worth the price.

Now Polymarket’s 32% approval rate isn’t just betting on whether the bill can pass.

It’s betting on whether U.S. politicians actually have the sense to see this layer of stakes clearly. #PreIPOs第二期OpenAI认购 #GateDEX全面接入RobinhoodChain #夏日创作营 $BTC $GT $ETH