July 18: ETH

Yesterday, ETH first fell then rose, facing a choice between bulls and bears.

In terms of fundamentals, driven by the further escalation of the U.S.-Iran conflict, ETH briefly saw a downward shake; late at night, after the U.S. opened lower, the Nasdaq fell by nearly 3%, and price rebounded from the lows; afterward, the initial print of the U.S. one-year inflation rate expectation for July came in poorly, further confirming that the Federal Reserve’s short-term interest rates will not be adjusted. Meanwhile, at night, the U.S. carried out strikes against Iran for the seventh consecutive evening, and Iran retaliated by targeting U.S. military bases in Bahrain, Qatar, and Kuwait.

On the technical side, although the daily chart saw a false breakout upward near the 1906 area, a key mid-to-long-term resistance level, the 4-hour chart still maintained a bullish trend. After probing down to key support around 1813 last night, it began to rebound; in the short term, it remains pressured below the prior high at 1846. On the hourly chart, the short-term bearish move since the drop from the 1946 high has temporarily ended; the market is now entering a range-bound consolidation mode, but the time and space for the correction are far from enough.

In terms of trading, the bias remains to buy the dip within 1829–1824, with a stop-loss at 1800 and targets at 1862 and 1895. Today’s bull-bear pivot is 1794: if the hourly chart breaks down below it, the outlook will fully turn to bearish trading, with downside targets at 1704 and 1588.