Today is Saturday, July 18, 2026.

The crypto market is choppy and slightly bearish, with no clear direction. Bitcoin repeatedly oscillates around $63,000--$65,000, while Ethereum weakens in tandem. The market is caught in a back-and-forth tug-of-war between “inflation cooling” and “policy that isn’t bought,” making it difficult to form a one-way trend in the short term.

## I. News flow: bearish pressure dominates

The CLARITY bill faces setbacks—negotiations over the U.S. Senate digital asset “Clear Bill” have hit a stalemate. Democrats say they have not yet endorsed the latest framework proposed by Republicans. With only a few weeks left before the August congressional recess, the legislative window is narrowing. Controversies over conflicts of interest in the crypto business empire of the Trump family further widen the rift between the two parties. The regulatory-positive expectations the market had previously priced in face a risk of falling short.

Tighter macro liquidity—the Fed Chair Woschw maintains a hawkish tone, and the former chief economist at the New York Fed went even further, saying the Fed may be forced to raise rates. The Nasdaq slumped 2.9% over the week, the Philadelphia semiconductor index has slid into a bear market, and risk assets are broadly under pressure.

Stablecoin rules take effect today—the stablecoin compliance requirements under the GENIUS bill are officially implemented on July 18. Mid-market issuers face cost pressure, and in the short term this may trigger some liquidity contraction.

## II. Technicals: key levels tested repeatedly

### Bitcoin

Currently consolidating around $64,000. On the 4-hour chart, price is above the Bollinger midline (63,800). The short-term bias is somewhat bullish, but the upper band at 64,800-65,000 forms a key overhead pressure zone.

**Strong resistance overhead:** 64800-65000 → After a breakout, watch 65500-65600 (a large concentration area for pending short orders)

**Key support below:** 62500--63000 → If it breaks, watch 61500--61000

**Long/short pivot level:** 64450. If price holds above it, there’s a chance to test 65000+; if it falls below 62500, momentum turns weaker.

### Ethereum

Current price is about 1,843. Tracking BTC’s movement, bearish energy is stronger.

**Overhead pressure:** 1870-1890 → Strong resistance at 19,030-1,950 (the prior high rejection zone)

**Support below:** 1800-1820 (short-term dip-buying pickup area) → If it breaks down, watch 1760-1740

## III. On-chain data: mixed long/short signals

**Bullish signals:** A BlackRock-linked address transferred 2,152 BTC (about $140 million) out of Coinbase Prime to an unknown cold wallet. Institutional-grade capital is exiting circulation, tightening supply.

**Bearish signals:** Miners’ reserves had previously fallen sharply. Older coins (coins aged 18-24 months) are accelerating into exchanges, suggesting long-term holders may be moving into a distribution phase. Although the past five days saw $1.4 billion transferred from exchanges to cold wallets, miner outflows surged 564% at the beginning of July, and the overhang from sell pressure has not been resolved.

Liquidity is weak over the weekend, so it’s suggested to keep positions light or stay on the sidelines. Watch the next Fed meeting (July 28-29) and the latest progress on the CLARITY bill.

There’s really nothing much to say on the execution side—liquidity is too poor. For Bitcoin, it’s still best to reference the broad range 61,000--61,500 to plan both long and short setups. For some weekend scalping, reference 63,000--64,000. For ETH, reference the 1800--1900 range to plan long and short setups.

If there’s an opportunity, I’ll send timely updates to friends who are following the trades. If you have questions or ideas, you can discuss them in the group chat, or message me privately.