As of July 18, Ethereum (ETH) has continued to pull back from elevated levels, with the price consolidating in the $1,832-$1,836 range. Earlier this week, boosted by the U.S. June CPI and PPI both coming in below expectations, ETH briefly broke above the $1,900 threshold and reached a new high since early June. However, it didn’t last long: the price then fell about 5.8% from the July 15 high of $1,946.62, slipping lower for two consecutive days within a clear downward channel.

From a technical perspective, ETH is currently at a critical decision point. The Fibonacci 0.236 retracement level ($1,836.67), the EMA9 (about $1,829.60), and the lower boundary of the channel converge around $1,833, forming a triple confluence. Such overlapping support zones often indicate the market is about to see a directional breakout rather than continuing range-bound trading. Strong resistance lies at the 100 EMA ($1,944). A break above would confirm a mid-term trend reversal; if the $1,800-$1,820 support cluster is lost, it could open the door to a deeper pullback.
Long and short factors are intertwined in a tug-of-war. On the bullish side, Bitmin holds 5.77 million ETH (4.8% of circulating supply). BlackRock and JPMorgan also have tokenized fund products on Ethereum with direct settlement; this week, U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs saw net inflows of nearly $97 million. On the bearish side, the selloff in Asian semiconductor stocks has spread to stock index futures, and ETH’s drop is roughly twice that of Bitcoin, suggesting its narrative remains tightly linked to AI infrastructure sentiment. While the ETH/BTC ratio has risen to a three-month high, macro risk-avoidance sentiment is still a suppressing factor.
Overall, ETH’s mid-term structure remains bullish and has not been broken, but short-term it faces pullback pressure. Whether $1,830-$1,840 can be held effectively will be the near-term line between bulls and bears. #夏日创作营