Trump’s bet this time is very clear: re-block Iran, choke its oil exports, clamp down on its economic throat, and force it to loosen its grip at the Strait of Hormuz.

Tehran, meanwhile, is betting it can withstand it—having already held out for several months. With domestic mobilization, reserves, and rerouted exports, its resilience is stronger than the outside world imagined. Both sides are, in reality, playing a “who blinks first” game.
The United States doesn’t want a full-scale war, and Iran can’t afford a long-term blockade either. But with its face on the line, it can only keep wearing each other down.
If oil exports are blocked, Iran’s economy will feel even more pressure—but global oil prices will also rise, hurting Europe and Asian importing countries first.
In the short term, the risk in the strait remains, and oil prices will most likely continue to trade in a high-range, volatile pattern. The negotiation window has basically stayed open all along, but both sides want to extract a bit more in the form of bargaining chips before sitting down.
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