As of July 18, current market conditions

1、The overall market is weak, with no signs of stabilization
$BTC It’s currently stuck in a back-and-forth between 63,000 and 64,000. Each time there’s a small rebound to just above 64,000, a large amount of sell pressure comes in and smashes it down. Institutional ETF funds have been seeing long-term net outflows. Only when there’s a big drop do a small amount of bargain-hunting funds step in to prop it up, and the rebound lacks sustainability.
$ETH The price action is even worse than BTC’s—more lackluster, with higher volatility and deeper drawdowns. Funds are now prioritizing holding BTC for risk hedging. As soon as ETH rebounds a bit, large players reduce positions and run away. Above, layer after layer of trapped positions keeps pressure on it, making it hard to break into a bullish trend.

2、The external environment is all bearish, making it hard to run a bull market
U.S. rate-cut expectations keep getting pushed back, and sustained high interest rates continue to suppress all risk assets. Middle East geopolitical conflicts flare up from time to time; whenever tensions hit, funds directly sell crypto and move into cash for safe-haven. Without major positive catalysts landing, it can only keep grinding lower in a choppy, dull way.

3、Risk is extremely high, and it’s completely unsuitable for ordinary people to enter
Crypto markets trade nonstop 24/7 with no up/down price limits, and it’s common to see single-day moves of more than ten percentage points in both directions. In the derivatives market, both long and short sides get “punished” as a routine occurrence; one random spike wick can wipe out your stop-loss. Every day, large numbers of users get liquidated, leading to losses.
Right now the price looks low, and it seems like you could bottom-fish, but in reality, support below can break at any moment. Bottom-fishing is very likely to trap you on the side of a mountain, with no clear opportunity for a reversal into upward gains in the short term.