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EOD recap - 17 Jul 26
A short one because i am typing this out while out. Pre market prices marked the low for multiple tickers like $SNDK, $MU, $NBIS. Into the NY session, we had an early lurch downwards before prices in these beaten down names staged a strong bounce. This however dribbled down into the close.
In terms of fundamentals, more tests have shown that Kimi K3 is not cheaper than GPT. This is a significant phase shift from the chinese are much cheaper and catching up to the chinese are just as expensive. Again like what i said earlier, a huge part of the progress made by Kimi was likely via distillation. Otherwise they would have shown progress on lower inference costs as well.
As Gavin says, both interpretations of it is bullish AI capex. Inference demand is also likely to outstrip training demand for GPUs soon.
On the index level, vol continues to be subdued vs the moves on the single stock level.
Into the weekend, i think more people will digest the ramifications of K3. Also it will be insightful to see the impact on the Korean market when it opens for trading on monday.
Have a good weekend!